@paulwarburg.bsky.social
Paul Warburg is a geopolitical analyst and YouTuber. https://youtube.com/@pauljwarburg?si=SDnFSyzRBsVw5xl- https://youtube.com/@icarusproject?si=XdEHMMVz6XGOCqd1
There’s a lot more to Russia’s drone incursion into Poland than first meets the eye.
youtu.be/kAqHnMXLUno?...
Ukraine keeps tricking Russia - and Russia keeps falling for it. Short term? Russia loses men and materiel. Long term? Russia loses something much more important - their confidence to exploit legitimate battlefield opportunities, leaving them psychologically paralyzed.
youtu.be/pWvhRNbzxuk?...
Predicted this months ago.
Ukraine knows the value of its data to training the AI weapons of the future.
They don’t have to give that to the west for free - especially to countries like the U.S. if we keep insulting and gaslighting them for defending themselves.
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Ukraine’s recent actions against Russia could be much more significant than most people realize.
It might look like “more of the same” to the untrained eye, but to me it looks like a decisive shift and a targeted strategy.
youtu.be/ZuPxOe6bSgM?...
When Hitler decided to openly rearm Germany, he knew he was gambling with sanctions.
Had sanctions been applied, Germany’s position would have been hopeless. World War II never would have happened.
Instead, the western world decided “not to provoke Germany.”
History repeats itself.
Much is made of Ukraine’s manpower shortage.
Few mention that Ukraine has levers to pull that they haven’t pulled yet.
They can lower the conscription age from 25 to 18 - the “normal” age in most western countries.
That they haven’t done so yet shows they aren’t as desperate as is said.
The only way he CAN help end the war is to put more pressure on Russia. Talks with Russia will generate media, but they won’t generate results.
16.08.2025 13:33 — 👍 27 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 0The current media cycle on Ukraine has repeated itself many times.
“Trump wants peace. He says it’s close. Nothing actually happens.”
No surprise.
I said it a year ago - Trump CAN’T end the war, because the U.S. does NOT have any leverage to force Ukraine to do anything. We are quick to forget.
If Trump is serious about ending the war in Ukraine, he needs to apply the sanctions he threatened against Russia…the same way he ripped away military support from Ukraine the moment a conversation didn’t go “his way.”
Otherwise he is once again being fooled by the mere words of Vladimir Putin.
Everyone is nervous about how the war will go, but the reality is that Ukraine is simply repeating thousands of years of military history.
We are witnessing history in the making. When we look back, the conclusion will seem obvious the whole time.
By agreeing to meet with Trump to try to avoid his sanctions, Putin has inadvertently revealed that he IS VERY worried about them.
It’s VITAL that Trump presses that advantage rather than caving in to Russia’s demands.
In Ukraine, conventional weapons are losing relevance in favor of drone warfare.
Yet Europe and the U.S. continue to stockpile conventional munitions for a war that may or may not ever happen.
It would be better to send more to Ukraine now while they still have a punch.
youtu.be/icCwKBjfBkU?...
Thanks John. Appreciate the article. I wouldn’t call myself “post-theological”, to be clear. I think that the morality of Christianity actually flows out of a good theology - a good understanding of who God is :)
07.08.2025 12:51 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0People keep saying there are “nuclear tensions.” That plays right into Russia’s hands. They’ve been threatening nuclear war for YEARS and nothing happens.
Trump “positioning” nuclear subs isn’t sending a message to Russia. The subs were already accounted for. It’s about looking strong at home.
Russians: “Ukraine isn’t able to siege Crimea, Paul. You don’t know what you’re talking about.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainians:
www.reuters.com/world/europe...
These are good developments. I just wish people would have listened sooner.
I’ve been called every name possible by people on the right, for trying to encourage the right to do exactly what they’re finally starting to do now.
We wasted a lot of lives playing politics.
apple.news/AJ08cTq6NQhC...
China’s military doctrine is based on misdirection - and for two decades they have been gesturing wildly at Taiwan so everyone would see.
What happens when you put two and two together, and combine a Russian war in the west with intense historical grievances in the east?
youtu.be/WMgUhZTNPRE?...
Russia failed to read the 33 strategies of war.
02.08.2025 03:04 — 👍 25 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
Big milestone today! Thanks to all
my subscribers!
Russia’s naval base WAS damaged by the tsunami. A pier snapped in half.
That’s just the apparent damage we can see from satellite, but it confirms large waves did hit the base and cause damage…likely much more extensive than we can know.
Any ships at dock would have been slammed into piers.
Not only can Crimea be sieged, it IS being sieged.
But because it looks different than a lot of people expect, many have missed the significance of what’s happened there.
More than that, even the Russian military has already pulled back from Crimea in many important ways
youtu.be/wzWjnZte6dI?...
I always invite Russian trolls to poke actual holes in my discussions.
They never do.
The best they can say is “This is delusional propaganda” or “Take your meds” or “Go back to the asylum”…without ever clarifying why my analysis is actually wrong.
That’s how you know you’re over the target.
The most overlooked aspects of warfare are often sociological.
A lot of people will miss the negative religious implications for the Russian Orthodox Church of a magnitude 8.8 earthquake striking with an epicenter next to Russia’s nuclear naval base.
That and a lot more:
youtu.be/TwSIL-wIHgw?...
Not to worry guys. It’s not really an earthquake. It’s just a Special Seismic Operation.
31.07.2025 03:37 — 👍 52 🔁 3 💬 6 📌 1Russian TV began threatening Alaska again.
Around the same time, an 8.8 earthquake (6th largest recorded in history) struck RIGHT outside Russia’s ONLY naval base in that area.
A tsunami has hit the naval base, and now a volcano is erupting to its north.
Irony sucks if you’re Russian.
Russians are currently telling me how Ukrainian strikes on Russian rail lines are irrelevant and won’t make a difference.
In the next breath they will tell me how Ukraine would lose the war almost instantly if Pokrovsk fell, because it’s a rail hub.
Ukraine has been crushing Russian supply lines lately. It’s already largely stopped Russia’s summer offensive. And there’s very little Russia can do about it.
Russia is too large to fully defend. All it takes is a single strike on a rail line to completely stop deliveries.
youtu.be/x0nvJ1Ehi-M?...
Here’s one: www.wsj.com/world/russia...
28.07.2025 12:47 — 👍 8 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
It’s now literally true that the Russian government has collapsed in many different regions.
That’s because Russia is failing to fulfill the most basic aspects of what a government does - they cannot provide adequate law enforcement.
Russia is literally descending into anarchy
youtu.be/P7IyrpY8tF8
When Russia claims the U.S. “staged a coup in 2014” to “oust Russian influence from Ukraine”, do they not realize this only implies Russia was trying to do the same thing, but failed?
Not only is this “coup” a lie, but they aren’t even mad that Ukraine was toppled, only that Russian influence was
