Kate Starbird

Page 2 of letter by Daniel Swain. It begins: constructive suggestions regarding how the already remarkable institutional efficiency and societal impact of NCAR could be further enhanced through increased (not decreased) federal support in the years to come. Please note: To ensure the highest level of technical rigor, this response focuses exclusively on the core atmospheric and natural hazard science topics within the author’s primary domain of expertise; for this reason, I have omitted a response to Topic 4 (Space Weather)." NCAR weather modeling and atmospheric observing capabilities a) Management and operations of weather-related observational platforms, modeling and science as a stand-alone activity. The proposed management of weather-related research as a stand-alone activity is a scientifically regressive path that ignores the fundamental physical reality of the Earth system. Modern atmospheric science has demonstrated (largely, it is worth noting, due to groundbreaking researc

Page 3 of letter by Daniel Swain. It begins: b) Management and operations of weather-related observational platforms, modeling and science as combined with other NSF investments/facilities. The highly specialized nature of the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC) infrastructure represents an extraordinary value proposition that cannot be replicated by combining it with more generalized NSF programs. The NWSC is not a generic high-performance computing (HPC) facility; it is a laboratory uniquely optimized for atmospheric science workflows, with a hardware and storage architecture specifically designed to handle the massive, high-bandwidth data demands of Earth system modeling. Furthermore, its model of providing an excellent, free-at-point-of-use technical support team ensures that the focus remains on the science rather than the overhead of systems administration. This centralized expertise allows individual researchers, smaller labs, and even entire universities—who would otherwi

Page 4 of letter by Daniel Swain. It begins: NCAR Mesa Lab (located in Boulder, Colorado) a/b) Ownership of the NSF NCAR Mesa Lab building for public and private use. Far more than just an office building, NSF NCAR Mesa Lab is an iconic and purpose-built facility designed specifically for the study of atmospheric science. Its position at the physical interface of the Rocky Mountain foothills and the Great Plains is a deliberate reflection of its mission, serving as a visible symbol—in an iconically American setting—of the federal government's enduring commitment to science in service of society. For many in the field, including myself, the Mesa Lab holds singular importance as a focal gathering point for the global atmospheric science community. My own early career exposure to weather and Earth system modeling, in fact, occurred within these walls, and I have long felt that the facility’s architecture and location inspire a necessary sense of awe regarding the atmosphere’s complexity a

Page 1 of letter by Daniel Swain. It begins: Dear Acting Director Stone and the NSF NCAR restructuring team: I am writing to provide a formal response to the Request for Information (RFI) regarding the proposed restructuring of the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and its critical weather science infrastructure contained within the January 23, 2026 Dear Colleague Letter (DCL) entitled “NSF Intent to Restructure Critical Weather Infrastructure.” I submit these comments in my professional capacity as an atmospheric research scientist within the University of California, where my research focuses on the physics and dynamics of atmospheric processes related to extreme weather events and their role in shifting natural hazard and disaster risk. My perspective is informed by a public-sector career dedicated to bridging the gap between fundamental atmospheric research and real-world application in an academic context, with a particular focus on understanding and mitigating

I just submitted my letter to NSF responding to its proposal to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). I argue that doing so would be an astonishing and avoidable misstep, and that federal support for the institution should in fact be *increased.* [1/4]

Washington defends gender-affirming care against unconstitutional attacks.

Gender-affirming care remains legal and protected in the state of Washington.

Last year, our team secured a preliminary injunction blocking two executive orders that threaten to end federal funding to medical institutions providing gender-affirming care.

Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? No. No it can't. Come on, now.

Karpf: "If you think Claude Code is a better social scientist than you, then you’re probably right. But that means, at some point, you stopped trying to answer interesting/puzzling questions and started trying to win the publish-the-most-articles race." davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/can-ai-rep...

Screw Covid, I'm going to Sturgis. Troy Tassier is a professor of economics at Fordham University and the author of The Rich Flee and the Poor Take the Bus: How Our Unequal Society Fails Us during Outbreaks.

"Screw Covid, I'm going to Sturgis!" The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, held in August 2020, was the epitome of the individual choice mindset. Of course it spread cases outward and caused infections, illness, and death. A new research paper allows us to watch the Sturgis Covid wave spread across the US.

* what a literature review is for

And if they think AI can do the literature review “better” than human researchers, then maybe they don’t understand what a literature is for? (For a person to gain and the demonstrate that they truly know a space, before deciding what about it needs to be built upon or contested.)

If AI can replace your research, maybe it wasn’t so valuable in the first place? For my team’s mixed-method research on big social data, only ~10% of our insights ever make it into an actual paper. But those insights shape everything we know and share about the communities and dynamics we study.

Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? No. No it can't. Come on, now.

New post: Can AI Replace Social Science Researchers? (No. No it can't. Come on, now.)

davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/can-ai-rep...

Fascinating. Horrifying.

The Propagandists’ Playbook by Francesca Bolla Tripodi is the book to read if you want to understand a big part of why certain words trigger such different responses.

Bellingcat’s New Tool to Explore Historical and Spatial Flight Data Turnstone can visualise historical trends in flight data or filter them by geography, aircraft type and other parameters.

Trying to make sense of an aircraft’s movements during a conflict? Context is everything. That’s why we built Turnstone, an open source tool that searches historical flight data to allow researchers to explore flight patterns over time and in specific locations. www.bellingcat.com/resources/20...

Yeah. I can see why the website mistake would look intentional. And it could very well have been. I'm probably biased against reading the election admin errors as intentional from years of studying Stop The Steal rumors and conspiracy theories.

I think the point of intent here is that the rules were changed in a way that was (1) going to make it harder to vote; and (2) going to cause confusion on election day. And we're going to see A LOT more of that this cycle. Save ACT. Kicking people off rolls. Messing with mail-in ballot timing. Etc.

But I've also been watching election rumors for a few cycles now, & seen a lot of "falsely attributed intent" to election officials for honest mistakes or things out of their control. Maricopa 2022 had broken tabulator machines that impacted mostly GOP voters and we saw similar claims about intent.

I agree: that's a pretty egregious error and it's going to seem intentionaly, especially if those in charge have political party affiliations that are different from those impacted. <See next post, though.>

That’s troubling. I don’t know that I would assume that to be intentional. It could be, but mistakes do happen. Election admin errors are common. It’s a complicated process. But rule changes that restrict voting set election officials up to fail.

AI generated image of a yellow flag sitting on top of a stack of ballots, with an American flag in the background. The referee is calling a penalty. Overlaid text says "Penalty: Federal Interference".

There does seem to be a memo circulating. Let see if our institutions (especially our state AGs) have the capacity to call them out for federal interference.

Oh my...

bsky.app/profile/vote...

The legacy of the Big Lie lives on... and this next generation of the "rigged election" strategy is going to be even more challenging than the last.

Re: the debacle in the Texas primary today: Lies about voter fraud (from past elections) motivate and justify retaliatory actions and policy changes that make elections less fair and lead to more turmoil, more confusion and uncertainty, more rumors and legitimate greivance, and diminished trust.

I hear you, and thanks for the polite nudge here. Yes: SAVE act. Attempts to end mail-in and early voting. Kicking voters off the rolls without reason. Changing timing of mail-in voting and mail processing. Infrastructure to help people get their vote counted despite ratf*cking will be critical.

2026 is likely to continue to feature rule changes, often justified by “rigged election” myths from 2020, used to make it harder (for some people) to vote. Disentangling the messiness of elections from the intentional efforts to tip the scales will be challenging… even for folks studying this stuff.

The 1st post in this thread is a 2nd version of a now deleted post that was perhaps too dismissive of intentionality in this case. Rule changes causing disenfranchisement are more likely to reflect some intent (to make it harder to vote) that say, broken machines or glitches on Election Day.

Later stay of the decision to extend voting hours: bsky.app/profile/base...

More context, initial judge decision: bsky.app/profile/base...

This case is a primary & both candidates seem to be asking for extended hours. Hopefully courts will decide to count late votes (currently being separated out) to ensure trust in the process. Voter education efforts going into the general are going to be critical. The attention to this might help.

Regarding judge extending hours and then another court staying that decision: bsky.app/profile/kate...

Election Day confusion due to rule changes can lead to disenfranchisement — people aren’t able to vote or their vote isn’t counted due to wrong place, wrong time. The disenfranchisement isn’t necessarily intentional, but can impact outcomes. And it often sparks rumors about intent.

I retract “very rarely” from the first post, and suggest “not always”. Will repost.

Maricopa County judge denies GOP lawsuit to extend poll hours, delay voting numbers The poll hours will stick with ending at 7 p.m. and early ballot results will be released around 8 p.m.

There have been similar examples where courts have declined extending voting hours, for example Maricopa County in 2022, where many voters were impacted by broken tabulator machines: www.azfamily.com/2022/11/09/r...