Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine

Will take them only another 10 years before taking action 😉

Conceding territory to Russia… you can only afford as long as you are not the next country to concede some — Baltics and Poland understand this.

Contributor: When did the Supreme Court stop caring about public opinion? The court has historically understood the perils of completely ignoring precedent and the will of the people. Chief Justice John Roberts is different.

Patrick Wohlfarth and I find the longstanding relationship between public opinion and Supreme Court decisions that we and others have previously documented no longer exists. www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...

Congrats, Luca! 🎊🎈🍾 So deserved, and extremely hard to get an FWF grant. Looking forward to seeing what you will find!

Excited to share that I’ve been awarded a PI-Grant from the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) for my project "What Citizens Think They Should and Can Do in Democracies”. The project comes with 1 PhD (co-supervised w/ a proper academic adult) and 2 RA positions + funding for interviews and surveys.

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I guess conceptually, especially due to their common potential outcome notation, it is hard to draw any line between survey experiments and these methods. But in a sense the post seems to be saying „this was simply not what the inventors thought of or wanted to do“. I guess that’s fine.

🚨📣Very excited to announce our Online INCONEX Kick-Off Workshop on December 12 from 13:45 to 17:45 (CET)!

We have a great line-up of paper presentations and a fantastic roundtable. Everyone is welcome!

👉 Sign up here: bit.ly/inconex_workshop

@erc.europa.eu #PoliticalScience #Representation

Political Behavior NOTE FROM THE EDITORS OF POLITICAL BEHAVIOR: We have recently transitioned from Editorial Manager to SNAPP. The submission process for SNAPP requires ...

Political Scientists: I am the chair of the committee that is picking the next editor of @polbehavior.bsky.social. If you are interested, I'd be happy to chat about it (and I know the current editors would be too).

You can find the call for proposals here:

‼️ Two weeks left to apply for the postdoc in Political Text Analysis in the MULTIREP project 👇.

I think much depends on what collaborative replication means. I fully agree that replicators should ask these questions & authors should, in best case preemptively, answer them. But I don’t think we should *expect* replicators e.g. to run new studies or fix data with the authors (only if they want).

Thanks! I guess our views differ on this. I have nothing against collaborative replications & find them helpful but think there must be place for critiques/non-collaborative replications without this expectation. Fine for me to disagree. Just had not expected we would 🙃. Enjoy your Sunday!

As I said, Tom, I have no knowledge of the process and don’t want to talk about this case in particular. I don’t know who acted appropriately or not. I was just interested in whether you generally think a replicator should be expected to participate in a collaborative replication?

If they like, sure. But putting this as an expectation is really creating a hurdle to engaging with replication. The replicator simply may not have time, resources, or even expertise to participate in this (eg someone may find statistical issues without knowing substance). Can we agree on that? 2/2

Hi, Tom! I totally agree on the „gotcha“ point. I also don’t want to say anything about this particular case, bc I have neither read paper nor replication nor response in any depth. But I struggle with the idea that replicators should be expected to participate in collaborative replications. 1/2

Good morning. A coda (from me) on this replication business.

While I understand the impulse, it is disheartening that most of the discussion generated by this replication is about the replication "process" -- both the APSR's process and my own process.

What could we be talking about instead?

A critique of our (w/ @bertous.bsky.social) paper “Instrumentally inclusive” has just been published.

Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response.

osf.io/rn6h3/files/...

Today I published a replication outlining concerns with "Instrumentally Inclusive" by Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega (2024, APSR).

I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.

4. The authors quote me as saying their use of weights in study 2 is "inconsistent with the analysis of Study 1, and this inconsistency is not explained or justified." (p3).

Here is what I actually say on p2 of the published replication.

Just the small possibility that maybe, maybe… Europe can do whatever it takes to make Trump seemingly happy & will still be sidelined & thrown under the bus. Just a thought! 💭

Because if it’s right, we could finally move on & realize that this is the time for Europe to act boldly. Just an idea!💡

Let me guess: European leaders will say „that’s a good starter for discussions“

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

I think the most worrying part is that many Americans seem not to understand that his approval rating is still quite good given what he is doing. I just cannot comprehend how one can feel confident about the U.S. public when seeing that Trump has 39% approval. That’s worryingly high!

Not like ☹️. Feel sorry & hope it will resolve soon!

Strategische Unabhängigkeit Europas:

1) Putin-Regime wird 2026 wirtschaftlich kollabieren, wenn Sanktionen erhalten und verschärft werden.

2) Trump-Regime und MAGA werden 2026 elektoral kollabieren.

Also: Durchhalten, Waffen liefern, Vermögen verwenden, Schattenflotte lahmlegen.

Ok, I finally believe we can stop political science and just watch CIA thrillers as a mild version of reality.

We have a new tenure-track job in @lsegovernment.bsky.social at AP level (empirical political science, open subfield): jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/... Please apply and share with colleagues who might be interested!

You can rent cars on university money?!

💯

1) Start the worst European war since 1945 and commit every imaginable war crime
2) Decide how you want to be rewarded for your aggression
3) Leak the list of your desiderata to the US press
4) Wait for the US president to enforce your wish list on your victim.
Russian policy 2025

Höre immer wieder, Trump‘s Ukraine- und Russlandpolitik sei chaotisch und widersprüchlich. Sehe ich nicht so.
Es gibt eine klare Linie: Die Ukraine steht der Normalisierung mit Russland im Weg.
Dieses Hindernis muss ausgeräumt werden, koste es, was es wolle.

It’s evening in Europe, I know.

But I just cannot comprehend anymore how people believe NATO security guarantees for Poland, the Baltics, Finland, Germany etc will work and are our security backbone, when they have read the U.S. „peace plan“.

Are you serious you still believe in any of that? 🤯