Abigail Dow

New coverage of my research on childcare prices and fertility by @the74.bsky.social, also highlighting further survey evidence showing parents cite childcare as unaffordable and a barrier to having children. Thank you, @brycecovert.bsky.social!

I also enjoyed the AEA Mentoring and Networking Luncheon!Thank you to our mentors Janet Currie and Elizabeth Cascio, who gave some great advice and guidance to myself and fellow mentees @rebecca-jack.bsky.social, Futing Chen, Merve Ezgi Ertugrul, Jon Denton-Schneider, and Jiaxin Li.

I was delighted to have the opportunity to present my Job Market Paper, 'The Price of Parenthood: Childcare Costs and Fertility' at the ASSA Annual Meeting in Philadelphia #ASSA2026 in a great session on fertility. Draft available on my website: abigaildow.com

Thanks for posting about my paper!

Ever look at that cute little button on your lap and be like wow, this one was expensive? You're not alone: 10% ⬆️ in the cost of childcare leads to ⬇️ 6% decline in the birth rate - from Dow at BU Econ

Thanks for your question! Yes, I control for housing prices. I weight by population rather than controlling for it as fertility mechanically contributes to population over time.

Thanks for sharing my paper!

Why aren't families having more babies?

This brand new paper argues that part of the reason is because childcare is so expensive.

"A 10% increase in the price of childcare leads to a 5.7% decrease in the birth rate"

abigaildow.com/assets/docs/...

As always, I had a great time at #appam2025!

I presented my JMP 'The Price of Parenthood: Childcare Costs and Fertility' (see thread below) and saw some great papers on childcare markets, fertility, healthcare access, and more.

@appam.bsky.social

#econsky #fertility

Thanks for reading!

Full paper on my website: abigaildow.com
📄 “The Price of Parenthood: Childcare Costs and Fertility”


Check out my other papers on paid sick leave, intensive nurse home visiting, and maternal and infant health.

While based on U.S. data, the results are relevant for other high-income countries where childcare is expensive 👶💸.

What’s the policy takeaway?

Parents do respond to childcare prices in their fertility choices.

Childcare regulations impact prices, but they also protect children.

So policymakers may want to explore ways to make childcare more affordable e.g. through increased subsidies.

The data supports these predictions:


• Higher income women (proxied by education) are more price-sensitive

• Older parents spend more on formal care

• Higher-order births respond more to price

Effects aren’t uniform - declines are larger among women aged 30+

A theoretical model explains why:

Older women earn more → higher opportunity cost of time → outsource more childcare → more exposed to price shocks.

They’re also more likely to be on child #2+, where costs compound.

🎯 Main result:


A 10% increase in childcare prices for <3 year olds causes a 5.7% decrease in the birth rate for women aged 15-44 (~ 4 births per 1,000 women).

Also,
⏳ Delayed first births (by 4 months)

⏳ Longer spacing between 1st and 2nd births (by 1/2 month)

Childcare regulations are important for children’s health and safety, but they do affect prices.

An decrease in the max group size by 5 children raises weekly childcare prices by ~$5.

💰 Childcare in the U.S. is expensive: in 2022, annual costs ranged from 5% to 35% of median income.

Prices are highest in the Northeast and West Coast, but many counties elsewhere still fact childcare costs >20% of median household income.

I combine these regulation data with:


• County-level childcare prices (NDCP)
• U.S. birth records (NVSS)
• ACS, CEX, QWI, CBP for controls + mechanisms

How?

📊 I construct a new dataset of US state childcare regulations (group size limits, staff-child ratios) for 2010-2022, and use an IV approach that exploits changes in the regulations that shift the price of childcare.

I ask...

How do childcare prices affect…


👶🏻 Whether to have children?

⏰ When to have them?

👶🏽👶🏽 How many to have?

📈 Empirical evidence is limited, especially in the US, as it’s hard to find exogenous price variation.

My JMP provides the first causal evidence on how childcare prices impact fertility rates and shows empirically that childcare costs are a barrier to having children in the U.S.

👋 I'm a health and labour economist on the #EconJobMarket!

My JMP explores a factor that often comes up when talking to people about having children - childcare costs

🗣️ “It’s frustrating to read articles asking why people aren’t having kids - have they looked at the cost of childcare?”

🧵…

Many thanks to my discussants for their feedback, and all the others who gave comments and suggestions!

I’ve been in Nashville 🎸🎶 for @ashecon.bsky.social.

I presented my paper ‘The Price of Parenthood: Childcare Costs and Fertility’ and work in progress on gender in doctor-patient relationships.

It was great to see familiar faces and meet new colleagues! #ASHEcon2025

Grateful to have attended SEHO 2025 in Zaragoza 🇪🇸 to present my paper “The Price of Parenthood: Childcare Costs and Fertility.” It was wonderful meeting new researchers and seeing so many great papers. Many thanks to the organisers! #SEHO2025

I just got back from a wonderful few days at APPAM. I saw some great papers, met nice researchers, and presented my work on paid sick leave, maternal healthcare use, and health outcomes! @appam.bsky.social