The Cipher Brief

The 2026 National Defense Strategy closely tracks the administration’s broader security priorities, but notable omissions raise important questions about where U.S. strategy is headed next. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/the-2026-national-defense-strategy-no-surprises?share_id=9143145

China’s Stunning Military Purge – and What It Means For Taiwan Xi Jinping’s campaign against his top generals has “gutted” the PLA’s command structure

China’s military leadership has been shaken to its core.
Xi Jinping’s sweeping purge of top generals has hollowed out the PLA’s command structure, raising serious questions about readiness, morale, and decision-making, especially when it comes to Taiwan.

Trump’s latest Davos announcement is raising eyebrows, and questions, about power, diplomacy, and what comes next for global governance. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/inside-trumps-new-board-of-peace?share_id=9139466

Russia’s War Economy Lifeline: Inside the Sanctions Evasion Network DEEP DIVE — Nearly three years into the most comprehensive sanctions regime ever imposed on a significant economy, Russia’s defense industrial base has not just survived — it has expanded at a rate that has stunned Western officials.

Sanctions were supposed to slow Russia’s war machine. Instead, Moscow built a global workaround. Inside the networks, middlemen, and financial backdoors keeping Putin’s war economy alive.

Extremists are targeting kids online, Discord, gaming chats, Instagram, and more. This piece explains how recruitment works and why prevention programs must be rebuilt. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/they-re-coming-for-our-kids?share_id=9138775

Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s power and heating systems is leaving civilians in the cold, and raising urgent questions about war crimes and accountability. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/russia-is-targeting-civilians-in-ukraine?share_id=9133683

Iran is facing its most serious unrest in years. But before Washington reaches for pressure, history offers a warning, from Iraq to Afghanistan, about what comes next. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/iran-at-the-breaking-point-how-afghanistan-and-iraq-still-inform-u-s-strategy?share_id=9136502

The Kremlin Files: Russia’s Way to the Gray Zone Non-Contact War Development and Doctrine

How Russia built its doctrine of gray-zone warfare, from non-contact war to information operations, and why it matters for today’s conflicts.

How did the U.S. become a global power, and what’s changed now? A look at American intervention, history, and the shifting logic behind U.S. force abroad. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/the-long-arc-of-american-power?share_id=9131681

New Reports Reveal Years of Unaddressed Osprey Safety Risks DEEP DIVE — It is one of the most lauded defense developments in recent decades, providing preeminent capability to U.S. military personnel worldwide, but that prowess evidently comes with a steep cost that military leadership allowed to grow for years.

New reports show the military failed to address known safety risks in the V-22 Osprey for years, even as deadly crashes continued. Investigators cite systemic breakdowns, delayed fixes, and unresolved hazards.

From memes to AI-driven influence, modern conflict is fought in the mind. A deep dive with the U.S.’s first “Cognitive Advantage” chief. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/the-countrys-first-cognitive-advantage-chief-influence-is-the-new-battlefield?share_id=9128888

Rivalry doesn’t rule out cooperation. From crisis management to counternarcotics and nuclear risk reduction, U.S.–China engagement still matters for the world. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/what-u-s-china-cooperation-means-for-the-world?share_id=9128695

America’s toughest security challenges aren’t fought overseas. They’re enforced quietly at home, and the Coast Guard sits at the center of that mission. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/coast-guard-sovereignty-and-homeland-defense?share_id=9128462

Global Intelligence Report for Friday, January 16, 2026

Global Intelligence Report for Friday, January 16, 2026

A firsthand reckoning with Aldrich Ames, the CIA traitor whose greed sent brave agents to their deaths, and whose legacy still haunts U.S. intelligence. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/remembering-aldrich-ames-and-the-lives-he-destroyed?share_id=9124929

Global Intelligence Report for Thursday, January 15, 2026

Global Intelligence Report for Thursday, January 15, 2026

CAN IRAN EVER BECOME A “NORMAL ADVERSARY”? BOOK REVIEW: ENDURING HOSTILITY: THE MAKING OF AMERICA’S IRAN POLICY

A sharp review of Enduring Hostility examines how every U.S. president has tried, and failed, to reset relations with Iran, and why the standoff endures.

Designating the Muslim Brotherhood as “terrorist” may do more harm than good—and risk pushing pragmatic Islamic movements toward radicalization. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/muslim-brotherhood-terrorist-designation-problematic?share_id=9115995

Global Intelligence Report for Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Global Intelligence Report for Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Global Intelligence Report for Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Global Intelligence Report for Tuesday, January 13, 2026- Pentagon bought device through undercover operation some investigators suspect is linked to Havana Syndrome.

Now Comes the Hard Part in Venezuela After Maduro’s Fall EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Now comes the hard part in Venezuela. Dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife are gone but the regime is still in power. Most Venezuelans, particularly in the diaspora, are pleased and relieved. Many are also apprehensive.

Maduro’s exit didn’t end Venezuela’s crisis. With the military and oil sector still controlled by regime loyalists, Washington faces tough choices about who to work with, and at what cost. An exclusive perspective by a former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela.

Maduro and Noriega: Assessing the Analogies Asked if there were any restraints on his global powers, [President Trump] answered: “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me.”

Was Maduro’s seizure a lawful arrest or an act of war? Cipher Brief Expert Geoffrey Corn breaks down why the Noriega analogy fails, what international law really says, and why POW status matters.

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, January 12, 2026

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, January 12, 2026

The Spy Who Came in Because He Wanted a Divorce BOOK REVIEW: The Defector. The Untold Story of the KGB Agent Who Saved MI5 and Changed the Cold War

One KGB defector, one British gamble, and a Cold War turning point that Moscow never saw coming.

AI that doesn’t just analyze, but acts. What Agentic AI means for defense, investors, and the future of warfighting. https://www.thecipherbrief.com/agentic-ai-human-in-loop?share_id=9117942

Global Intelligence Report for Friday, January 9, 2026

Global Intelligence Report for Friday, January 9, 2026

The Kremlin Files: Russia, the Modern Surveillance State EXPERT OPINION / PERSPECTIVE — Ask any Russian intelligence officer about “naruzhka,” and you’ll see them nod knowingly. It’s the term for physical, trailing surveillance: watchers on the street who follow targets, track meetings, and report patterns. The Russians are experts at it, and they have be

From Tsarist secret police to today’s FSB, surveillance defines Russian power. An expert perspective on “naruzhka,” the all-seeing state, and why foreigners—and Russians—are always being watched. #Russia #espionage #intelligence

Global Intelligence Report for Thursday, January 8, 2026

Global Intelligence Report for Thursday, January 8, 2026

Iran’s Supreme Leader Should Listen to the People

Iranians are back in the streets demanding change, accountability, and a future beyond the Islamic Republic. Iran’s Supreme Leader Should Listen to the People.

Global Intelligence Report for Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Global Intelligence Report for Wednesday, January 7, 2026