Israel and the US just improved their negotiating position immensely. How much depends on whether Israel struck Fordow, and how effectively.

The Supreme Leader no doubt is in hiding but he probably knows was kept alive only because Bibi allowed it.

Iran has already started launching long range drones and will probably attempt to launch missiles, if they retained the capacity to do so. But I suspect their response will be tempered by their calculations of what Israel still holds at risk.

While the impact of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is unclear (Natanz got leveled according to imagery but we don’t know yet whether Fordow was struck or how badly), the impact of Iran’s leadership will be profound. Almost the entire command structure of themMilitary and IRGC were neutralized.

What Israel accomplished was an incredible feat of intelligence-led combined arms. Mossad had teams on the ground (probably for months) developing targets’ pattern-of-life and attack vectors. Strikes were carried out using manned aircraft, drones, and probably other means.

Opinion | Why Al-Assad Fell Understanding the factors that led to the Syrian regime’s collapse is key to putting the pieces of the country back together.

Why Al-Assad Fell www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/o...