The Cruncher

Lineups out, here's the model's updated estimate for #AFLCatsDogs

In Excel, clicking a cell sometimes focuses on the wrong cell and I have to completely restart the app 😔

Anyone else have this issue, or just me?

Here's the updated match network, with the Circle of Parity from above highlighted in red

don't worry Potato of Parity stans, I got you covered

With tonight's result, the 2025 AFL Circle of Parity is officially complete

Proud to announce Stephen Gallagher's #NRL Pronunciation Guide now has its own website! See phonetic pronunciations and listen to recordings of every player's name.

Check it out at pg.tcau.dev/nrl

Please do share to friends & family who you think could benefit from this project; we've both (but mainly Stephen) put a lot of time & effort into it

Let us know what you think!

Proud to announce Stephen Gallagher's #NRL Pronunciation Guide now has its own website! See phonetic pronunciations and listen to recordings of every player's name.

Check it out at pg.tcau.dev/nrl

Updated #AFL predictions for the round following tonight's lineup release
tcau.dev/aussie-rules

Result probabilities: Fremantle 44.0% Draw 1.3% Collingwood 54.6% Mean margins & totals: Collingwood by 4.0 points 166.1 mean total points

Lineups out, here's the updated tip for #AFLFreoPies

What about when the margin is 4 converted tries or less? There's no clear evidence of a rubber band effect
2/2

In the #NRL, it seems that once a margin is large enough, leading teams consistently outperform (prematch implied) expectation
1/2

I made a website. It's called "one million chessboards." It has a million chessboards on it.

moving a piece moves it for everyone, instantly. No turns. You can move between boards.

that's it. Have fun!

onemillionchessboards.com

Brisbane gain rating points for the first time this season

The Bulldogs are new leader on the model's #AFL team ratings after Round 7

#NRL model ratings after Round 8

@tcau.dev the record for most of the same losing score in a round is 6 games:
2013 Rd1: losing score = 10 x6 games
1998 Rd11: losing score = 12 x6 games
5x losing score on 3 occasions
4x losing score now on 45 occasions

@uselessnrlstats.bsky.social

4/8 teams lost with exactly 18 points this week
#NRL

huge fan of the bird's eye view cam, should be at all games
#NRLTigersSharks

Hawks need 205 more points to move up the table

maybe?

Today is one of those hopeful days where I look up "NRL API" only to find results for Api Koroisau 😞

ah wait you were critiquing the Bears part of it, my bad haha

can't have Wests Tigers and Western Bears though, already have a similar problem in the AFL

Correction: foul play only applies to some infringements, which I didn't know until today!

With tonight's result, the 2025 NRL Circle of Parity is officially complete

Referee Sutton just said you can't quick tap after foul play but isn't that what all penalties are?
#NRLBroncosBulldogs

did you test whether this adjustment has any impact if you apply it on your current hybrid team-player model?

that's a lot larger of an impact than I'd have guessed

teams not included in the cycle are West Coast and Carlton