Lots of buzz online about an upcoming major March heatwave for the American SW & California. And in this case, it does indeed appear increasingly likely than an extremely anomalous and even record-breaking heatwave may envelop much of the SW about a week from now.
Whew.
All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.
Our Next Santa Ana wind event will be in full swing across #SoCal by tomorrow morning for the usual areas. Another warmup over the weekend as Temperatures get up into the 80's along Coast/Valley Locations. Our dry weather pattern expected to continue for at least another 10 days. #CAwx
2/2) Depending on how far West/overwater it moves, there could be a chance for some (mostly light) showers - but the most likely effect will be offshore flow/Santa Ana winds. #CAwx
1/2) Another warm week for #SoCal Coastal/Valley locations this week before an Inside Slider brings cooling late in the week. After that, some Guidance solutions drop a Cutoff Low into the region this weekend. (Cont)...
Exceptionally warm-to-hot late winter conditions expected across the Southwest through the weekend, peaking Fri and Sat. Numerous daily record highs (and record warm overnight minimums) will be set, along with some Feb monthly records possible. [Thread] #CAwx #AZwx #NVwx
Most locations across #SoCal have received normal to well-above normal precipitation amounts so far this Season. It's currently looking like we'll remain dry through at least the next 7 days. #CAwx
Our latest Winter warm spell peaks on Friday, with many #SoCal Coastal & Valley locations seeing daytime high temperatures in the low 90's and some Low Desert locations seeing upper 90's. #CAwx
A Ridge of High Pressure will keep the Storm Track to the North of #SoCal, and will bring increasing warmth this week, with temperatures across many Coastal and Valley locations flirting with the 90's by Friday. Dry weather expected through the first week of March. #CAwx
Isolated showers continue this afternoon across portions of #SoCal, with the sun shining through partly cloudy skies. Perfect conditions for rainbows such as this one that was seen in Cypress a little while ago.
NWS Precipitation totals for this week's storm sequence so far (prior to today's rainfall) - As has been typical for this Season, Northern portions of #SoCal received the highest totals. The difference this time is that much of the precipitation in the higher elevations fell as Snow instead of Rain.
As our latest Storm Sequence clears out, it will leave a chilly airmass in its wake, with overnight lows down into the mid 30's in Inland Valley locations, upper 20's in the High Desert and low 40's in the Coastal areas. #SoCal #CAwx
Composite Radar as of 11:09am 2/19/26 - The final System of our latest Storm Sequence is moving across #SoCal this morning, bringing Rain to lower elevations with Snow falling in higher elevations as low as 3,000ft. Scattered Showers will continue through much of the day. #CAwx
HRRR Model's Simulated Radar Depiction through the next 48hrs - A brief respite for #SoCal today with partly cloudy skies before the final Impulse of the current Storm sequence brings another round of Coast & Valley Rainfall/Mtn Snowfall to the region Thursday AM. #CAwx #LArain
In the last twenty-four hours, a powerful winter storm has dropped between 1 to 3 feet of snow in Sierra Nevada.
The heavy snow exacerbated conditions for dangerous avalanches, especially in the Lake Tahoe region where the heaviest snowfall occurred.
Severe Thunderstorm warning from NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard, 2/18/26, 12:20am:
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Los Angeles CA, Long Beach CA and Glendale CA until 1:45 AM PST. This storm will contain wind gusts to 70 MPH!
Doppler Radar as of 12:01am 2/18/26 - A strong line of heavy cells with embedded Thunderstorms is moving into Western LA County and will move through LA/OC Metro areas over the next couple of hours. These cells will produce heavy Rain and gusty Winds, with occasional Lightning. #CAwx #SoCal
Composite Radar as of 10:20pm 2/17/26 - Bands of heavier precipitation associated with an approaching Impulse are spreading East into the LA Metro area. Heavy Thunderstorms are moving through Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties and will move through the rest of #SoCal overnight. #CAwx
GOES West Satellite 2/17/26 5PM - The next Impulse is moving down the Central Coast, with Lightning strikes being picked up by the GLM Mapper. This Impulse will reach #SoCal late Tonight/early Wednesday AM with another round of heavy Rain/Thunderstorms & Snow in the higher elevations. #CAwx #LArain
HRRR Simulated Radar depiction through the next 48hrs - Scattered showers today across #SoCal. The next Impulse arrives late Tonight/early Wednesday bringing another band of Heavy Showers & Thunderstorms. A break Wednesday afternoon/evening before the next Impulse arrives Thursday AM. #CAwx #LArain
Doppler Radar as of 11:59pm 2/16/26 - Heavy Showers and Thunderstorms are moving East through LA Metro area, with some heavy downpours in the Long Beach area. There have been multiple lightning strikes associated with these cells. #CAwx #LArain
2/2) By Wednesday, Snow levels will be near 3,000ft, which could impact travel through Passes such as the I-5 through the Grapevine and I-15 through Cajon Pass. Mountain Resorts will see 1-2 feet of snow with locally higher amounts between now and Wednesday PM. #SoCalStorm #LArain #CAwx
1/2) HRRR Model Simulated Radar through 48hrs - Multiple impulses are expected to swing through #SoCal with brief respites between. Showers will be heavy at times. Some cells will produce Lightning, Hail and potentially strong downburst gusts - even an isolated Waterspout/small Tornado. Cont..
Flood Advisory issued February 16 at 10:31AM PST until February 16 at 2:00PM PST by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
Additional Details Here.
Composite Radar 2/16/26 10:38pm- A strong Winter Storm is delivering Rainfall and Mountain Snow to #SoCal today. Rain will be heavy at times, turning to scattered showers with potentially heavy downpours and Thunderstorms this evening. #CAwx
2/2) Snow levels drop quite low with the Cold unstable airmass associated with Tuesday PM/Wednesday's Storm, with the potential for anything from a dusting of Snow to some accumulating Snow in High Desert locations above 2,500ft on Wednesday. #CAwx
1/2) A quick peek at this morning's latest Guidance for Next week's unsettled pattern - The first System approaches #SoCal Sunday PM, with heavy Rain likely on Monday. Post-Frontal Showers linger into Tuesday, followed by a much colder System Tuesday Night/Wednesday.. (Cont..)
Scattered showers will decrease across #SoCal today as the system moves East of the area.
The next System approaches the region Sunday afternoon, with a series of impulses behind it sustaining periods of Rain and Mountain Snow through Thursday. Meaningful Rainfall totals expected next week. #CAwx
Doppler Radar as of 10:58PM 2/10/26 - Leading edge of the main Frontal Rain Band associated with an approaching Low Pressure system is entering Western LA County and will advance East across LA/OC Metro areas over the next few hours. #LArain #CAwx
Here's a look at the most recent Guidance for #SoCal Rainfall totals through Wednesday PM. Generally 0.25" - 0.75" for Coastal areas, higher amounts in Foothills and Mountains, with Snow falling above 6,000ft. Stronger, Colder systems are expected to move through the region next week. #LArain #CAwx
