@cmelectionpred.bsky.social
Independent election forecasting and analysis. ➡️ cmelectionpredictions.com
US House - WA-03: Toss-Up.
Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez won in 2024 by ~3.8%, and the Model gives Democrats a 57.3% chance of holding the seat.
Check www.cmelectionpredictions.com/house/distri... for the latest.
#election #uspolitics #washington #wapolitics
US House - WI-03: Toss-Up.
Rep. Van Orden won in 2024 by ~2.7%, and the Model currently gives Democrats a 51.4% chance of flipping the seat.
Visit cmelectionpredictions.com/house/district/wi-03 for the latest.
#Election #USPolitics #wipolitics #wisconsin
The Forecast for January 20, 2026, is now live!
Here's where things stand:
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1
Majority: Lean R
House: D 224, R 194, Toss-Up 17
Majority: Likely D
Gubernatorial:
Alaska (OPEN): Solid R -> Likely R
Iowa (OPEN): Likely R -> Lean R
Today, January 20, Mikie Sherrill (D) was sworn in as Governor of New Jersey.
What races are you watching next in NJ? Predictions here for 2026: cmelectionpredictions.com/state/new-jersey
#njpolitics #uspolitics #newjersey
Yesterday, January 17, Abigail Spanberger (D) was sworn in as Governor of Virginia. She is the first woman to hold the office.
What races are you watching next in VA? Predictions here for 2026: cmelectionpredictions.com/state/virginia
Nevada Governor: Toss-Up.
Gov. Lombardo won in 2022 by ~1.5%, and the Model currently gives Republicans a 59.2% chance to hold the seat. It's still early - keep an eye on this one.
Visit cmelectionpredictions.com/state/nevada for the latest.
#Nevada #Election #politics
New Electoral Spotlight: New Jersey’s 2nd (NJ-02)
Win Odds today: R 54.7%
Click here for more: www.cmelectionpredictions.com/house/distri...
#Elections #USPolitics #NewJersey
The Forecast for January 6, 2026, is now live!
Here's where things stand:
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1
Majority: Lean R (DOWNGRADE from Likely R)
House: D 224, R 194, Toss-Up 17
Majority: Likely D
Gubernatorial:
Alaska (OPEN): Solid D -> Solid R
Nevada (R-Lombardo): Lean R -> Toss-Up
#elections
State pages are live on CM Election Predictions.
See Senate, House districts, Governor, and state legislative control in one place - with ratings, win odds, and trend history.
Try it: cmelectionpredictions.com/state
#Elections #USPolitics
OPEN SEAT ALERT 🚨 AZ-01 is trending blue — currently Lean D, with Dems favored to flip.
#election #ArizonaPolitics #USPolitics
The Forecast for December 30, 2025, is live.
Here's where things stand:
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1
Majority: Likely R
House: D 224, R 194, Toss-Up 17
Majority: Likely D
Gubernatorial: No rating shifts
#Elections #USPolitics
Do you know how competitive your House district is? 👀
Use the District Finder on cmelectionpredictions.com to look it up by address or location.
#USHouse #Elections #Election2026 #USPolitics
One of the biggest targets for Republicans in 2026: Maine's 2nd District. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Golden is retiring, and Republicans are favored.
More: CMElectionPredictions.com
#Election #Maine #USPolitics
The Forecast for December 23, 2025, is live.
Here's where things stand:
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1
Majority: Likely R
House: D 224, R 194, Toss-Up 17
Majority: Likely D
Gubernatorial: No rating shifts
#Elections #USPolitics
Which party has the easier path to a majority today? This tool on cmelectionpredictions.com makes it obvious. 👀
#Election #USPolitics
Iowa's 3rd District in the US House is a coin flip. This could be one of the seats that makes or breaks the next House majority.
#USHouse #Iowa #USPolitics
The Forecast for December 16, 2025, is live.
Here's where things stand:
Senate: D 49, R 50, Toss-Up 1
Majority: Likely R
House: D 220, R 195, Toss-Up 20
Majority: Likely D
Gubernatorial: No rating shifts
#Elections #USPolitics
What do election ratings like Solid, Likely, Lean, and Toss-Up actually mean?
This short explains how I use probability to rate races, and why Lean and Toss-Up seats matter most on election night.
#Elections #USPolitics
Right now, the Model rates this race as a Toss-Up, though Republicans have a slight advantage - a 57.12% chance of holding on to the governor's office. This will likely change as we are still far from Election Day, but it will be interesting to see how this race develops! (4/4)
12.12.2025 01:17 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0However, Democrats see opportunity in Georgia after statewide wins in 2020, 2022, and 2025. The only statewide election in Georgia in 2024 was the presidential race, where Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by ~2.2%. (3/4)
12.12.2025 01:17 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0The incumbent Republican, Governor Brian Kemp, is finishing his second term and is term-limited. Democrats last won the office in 1998, when Democrat Roy Barnes defeated Republican Guy Millner by ~8.4%. Governor Barnes sought another term in 2002, but was defeated by Republican Sonny Perdue. (2/4)
12.12.2025 01:17 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
A CM Election Predictions Electoral Spotlight image, featuring text for "Governor of Georgia" and a gray circle with the words "Toss-Up".
Today's Electoral Spotlight shines on the election for #Governor of the State of #Georgia. This race is currently rated a #Toss-Up. (1/4)
12.12.2025 01:17 — 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
The Forecast for December 9, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
#Senate: D 49, R 49, Toss-Up 2 (Likely R - change from Lean R)
#House: D 222, R 195, Toss-Up 18 (Likely D)
#Gubernatorial Shifts
#Iowa (OPEN): Lean R -> Likely R
The #SupremeCourt has given the final nod of approval to the new #Texas Congressional map. Below is the updated estimated seat count for the #USHouse, along with updated odds for the House Majority. Visit www.cmelectionpredictions.com/house/ for a more in-depth view.
05.12.2025 03:47 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
The Forecast for December 2, 2025, is ready to read!
Current Standings
#Senate: D 49, R49, Toss-Up 2 (Lean R)
#House: D 226, R 192, Toss-Up 17 (Likely D)
#Gubernatorial Shifts
#Iowa (OPEN): Likely R -> Lean R
We can project Republican Matt Van Epps has won the special #Election in #TN-07. This is a Republican hold.
03.12.2025 02:25 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Right now, the Model has the odds of winning for each party at essentially a coin-flip, with the Republicans at a 50.12% chance of flipping the seat. We are still far from Election Day, but it will be interesting to see how this race develops! (4/4)
02.12.2025 02:46 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0In the 2024 Election, under the new boundaries, Republican Donald Trump won by ~11.6%. In the same election, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein won the new district by ~2.7%. The new lines make it difficult to estimate how Representative Davis might perform in his new district. (3/4)
02.12.2025 02:46 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Set in eastern North Carolina, it covers the cities of Elizabeth City, Henderson, New Bern, and Rocky Mount. The district was redrawn this year by the North Carolina legislature in an effort to defeat the incumbent representative. The district is currently held by Democrat Don Davis. (2/4)
02.12.2025 02:46 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
An image labeled "Electoral Spotlight" with the "CM Election Predictions" logo. It prominently features the name of "US House District NC-01", with a gray circle with "Toss-Up".
Today's Electoral Spotlight shines on North Carolina's 1st District in the #USHouse. This race is currently rated a #Toss-Up. (1/4)
02.12.2025 02:46 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
