Pete Barbrook-Johnson

A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them - Sustainability Science Meeting the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below 2 °C” requires a radical acceleration of action, as the global economy is decarbonising at least five times too slowly. Tipping point...

New open access paper on how to identify and assess positive tipping points to catalyse the low-carbon transition.

This work synthesises a lot of ideas in this space and makes them practical and usable in research and policy work.

Check it out: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

@doynefarmer.bsky.social @cameronhepburn.bsky.social @inetoxford.bsky.social @ecioxford.bsky.social @oxfordgeography.bsky.social

Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy Abstract. Reaching net-zero emissions will involve a structural transformation of the global economy. The transition is complicated by deep uncertainty abo

Fed up with economists using inappropriate methods to study climate change and net zero?

Here is a paper for you, "Economic models and frameworks to guide climate policy"!

We speak to governments about what they need, and show which economic methods can deliver.

academic.oup.com/oxrep/advanc...

Shiny new report on 10 System Archetypes of the energy transition.

Addresses the questions, how can governments manage the transition, given its countless moving parts and complexity? Which actions will be self-amplifying, and which will be self-defeating?

www.scurveeconomics.org/publications...

How ‘feedback loops’ and ‘non-linear thinking’ can inform climate policy Climate policy: The global shift towards a clean-energy system goes beyond technology to a transformation of markets, industries and societal behaviour.

Why the energy transition is non-linear: Excited to share that an article I co-authored on how feedback loops & non-linear thinking can inform climate policy is now published by the @weforum.org. We dive into why systems thinking is crucial for real climate progress.

www.weforum.org/stories/2025...

Decision-makers who understand how to work with these dynamics will have the advantage in navigating the transition...

Shiny new report on 10 System Archetypes of the energy transition.

Addresses the questions, how can governments manage the transition, given its countless moving parts and complexity? Which actions will be self-amplifying, and which will be self-defeating?

www.scurveeconomics.org/publications...

🚨 NEW RESEARCH: The energy transition is more disruptive—and could move much faster—than most people think.
It’s not just about swapping old tech for new.

Shift to clean energy is a complex web of feedback loops, tipping points & surprises.

Our new 📖 👇

www.scurveeconomics.org/publications...

🧵

The climate movement keeps saying 'stop talking about system change' and inaccessible jargon. Well, if this makes you sad then see 'system' and 'feedback loops' and 'levers' jargon put to excellent use in our new report.

Summary in @carbonbrief.org too

www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-h...

Solar hit 700GW in 2020—10x what was forecast in 2006.

Why? Feedback loops & non-linear change, not just tech swaps, drive clean energy.

Our new @carbonbrief.org piece: Early policy support + smart market design + cross-sector links = faster decarbonisation.

www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-h...

CECAN Fellowships - CECAN CECAN has established a Fellowship Scheme for those who wish to participate and contribute to its work. The scheme provides opportunities for those from Government and business to forge useful and las...

New revamped @cecan.bsky.social fellowship scheme!

www.cecan.ac.uk/cecan-fellow...

1) Interact with our team of experts on policy evaluation and analysis, systems thinking and complexity.

2) Work on mini-project related to challenges in your work.

Open to anyone working in these areas!

A new working paper from @bapeterj.bsky.social's team develops an approach for using natural language processing in policy analysis.

Yuan Fu & Pete show that NLP workflow is full of subjective judgements and choices

🔗 www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...

@inet-complexity.bsky.social
#complexity

LLMs-for-systems-mapping-CECAN-INET-Guidance-FINAL-24.03.25.pdf | Pete Barbrook-Johnson Recently, I have become interested in how we can make more use of existing evidence and data in systems mapping exercises. Most exercises are expert opinion-led, which works well, but there is often u...

More context here: www.linkedin.com/posts/pete-b...

LLMs-for-systems-mapping-CECAN-INET-Guidance-FINAL-24.03.25.pdf | Pete Barbrook-Johnson Recently, I have become interested in how we can make more use of existing evidence and data in systems mapping exercises. Most exercises are expert opinion-led, which works well, but there is often u...

More context here: www.linkedin.com/posts/pete-b...

2025-09 - Using NLP to create preliminary causal system maps for use… The use of causal systems mapping in interdisciplinary and policy research has increased in recent years. Causal system maps typically rely on stakeholder…

🚨 New working paper - geeking out on systems mapping 🤓

*Using natural language processing to create prelim system maps*

www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...

New guidance on using LLMs to support systems mapping exercises.

LLMs can be a useful tool, but only as a complement to a wider exercise. The won't do your systems thinking for you!

www.cecan.ac.uk/wp-content/u...

THREAD: How the Sun screwed up its "smoking gun" story on net-zero study

The Sun: "As much as 10% wld be wiped off economic growth by end of decade"

Source: "At no point does this study suggest there will be a drop in UK GDP. It talks abt a 10% transfer…within GDP"

Oops!
1/10

No. 2025-06 - Systems thinking in UK environmental policy making In recent years, there has been a marked rise in the use of systems thinking approaches in UK policy making institutions, especially in environmental…

The latest paper from @bapeterj.bsky.social with Domenica Cox and Alexandra Penn examines systems thinking in UK environmental policy making
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...

No. 2025-06 - Systems thinking in UK environmental policy making In recent years, there has been a marked rise in the use of systems thinking approaches in UK policy making institutions, especially in environmental…

New working paper! 🚨

Systems thinking in UK environmental policy

There has been a big uptick in the use of systems thinking in UK gov working on environmental and energy policy…we take a look at what’s going on!

Feedback welcome!

www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...

How is the net zero economy contributing to regions across the UK?

Data 🧵

UK net zero by 2050: technically & economically feasible

✅ 6️⃣5️⃣% of all Brits support the net zero target (22% oppose)
✅ Clear majority see renewables & clean tech as top growth sector
✅ 🇬🇧 net zero economy 📈 by 10% in 2024
✅ Global momentum only going in one direction

buff.ly/7Gm9c1F

Economic modelling fit for the demands of energy decision makers - Nature Energy Decision makers need sector-specific, policy-focused, dynamic economic models with rich representations of technological progress. These allow them to understand how the energy transition is likely to...

Strong agree. In case you missed it we made related argument here - www.nature.com/articles/s41...

In Nature Climate Change, @chrisbataille.bsky.social and I describe three common situations when energy/economic models are detrimental to climate policymaking efforts 🧵
rdcu.be/ecSMX

Solar adds more new capacity to the US grid in 2024 than any energy source in 20 years The US installed 50 GW of new solar capacity in 2024, the most new capacity added in a single year of any energy technology in over two decades.

The superpower of solar/storage is that it can be built very quickly. It's also cheap.

electrek.co/2025/03/10/s...

School meals not only advance children's education, health and equity–for @NewStatesman I argue that school meals in the UK should be universal and can further climate and economic goals through well-structured investment such as innovative procurement mechanisms.

Read more ➡️ buff.ly/oK7GDAz

Jesus fucking christ

Rishi Sunak: Net zero should be 'noble ambition' rather than legal target Uncertainty surrounds Conservatives' commitment to net zero, as former PM joins Shadow Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick in attacking UK's 2050 climate goal

Beyond enraging how same people who were happy to take an economic hit from Brexit because of sovereignty insist we can't take a smaller (and possibly non-existent) economic hit from net zero because it's only about protecting the only known habitable biosphere. www.businessgreen.com/news/4410408...

There is no country/zone with a) high prices and low carbon emissions or b) with low prices and high emissions.

The higher the carbon emissions from electricity generation in 2024, the higher the prices and vice versa.

HT Esko Heinonen

YouTube video by Jan Rosenow My home

When I'm told on social media that heat pumps don't work in old buildings I invite people to my 144 year old Victorian house to see it with their own eyes.

So far no one has accepted the invitation so I allow you to virtually step inside my house. Come on in! www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5k7...

Coming up on Wednesday 5th March 2025 @ 16:30 GMT ➤
The Oxford Systems Thinking Hub: Fireside Chat with Peter Drobac
🙋 In person event
🔗 www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/the-i...
#systemsthinking
@reubencollege.bsky.social @inet-complexity.bsky.social @bapeterj.bsky.social