Brian McNoldy

You'll love it!

Today is my daily observation # 4,949 for CoCoRaHS, but my first-ever snowfall report!
We got a whopping 0.8 inches of snow from this beast of a winter storm. 😒
It's pretty!

Not yet, but it's visible on the nearby mountains. Snow level is dropping. 😀

Happy #MartiniFriday to all who celebrate. 🍸🍸

Then, from late 2022-present, we have been collaborating with the South Florida Water Management District to make and share real-time daily 10-day tide forecasts for sites all around south Florida! You can view current and archived forecasts at lnkd.in/gaQYQek4.
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An astute undergraduate student, Nate Taminger, was in attendance and it piqued his interest in the topic. Creating actionable tide forecasts quickly became the focus of his Honor's Thesis and he graduated in May 2022.
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Six years ago today, I gave a brief presentation at the Miami Climate Symposium: "A Quarter-century of Tide Measurements at Virginia Key". It covered the basics of tides, tide prediction, local influences on water levels, seasonal cycles and trends.
@miamirosenstiel.bsky.social
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I think this is excellent, and I'd encourage people to complete the survey and let them know that we do find it useful!

Map of the U.S. showing the watches, warnings, and advisories in effect across over 20 states.

⚠️~132 million: Number of people under alerts for snow, sleet, & freezing rain.

A large, long-duration winter storm is expected to bring widespread heavy snow, sleet, & freezing rain from the Southern Rockies & Plains beginning Friday (Jan. 23), spreading eastward toward New England this weekend.
🧵

Virginia Key (home of @miamirosenstiel.bsky.social) is just wrapping up the climatological coldest week of the year. Amazingly, there have already been *two* new daily records set!
- A record LOW on January 16 (46.4 °F)
- A record HIGH on January 18 (78.6 °F)

bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/vk/

Parts are...
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/S...

A couple cool things on this evening's dog walk: a pretty moonset/sunset and a Great Horned Owl.

Wow, the afternoon run of the American model (GFS) really cranked up the snow totals across New Mexico on Friday and Saturday... in the 4-6 inch ballpark here at home in Bernalillo.
So far this season, we've gotten 0.0 inches, so this would be the first of the season!
#NMwx #WinterStorm

YouTube video by MiamiRosenstielSchool Climate Café Series - January 17, 2024

I shared this honor with Ben Kirtman, Michael Berkowitz, and Tiffany Troxler, and our panel was moderated by WLRN's Tom Hudson. And of course a huge thanks to Diana Udel for putting the whole thing together!

Video:
youtu.be/MAL7WN7WkWw?...

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Two years ago today, I was honored to be a panelist at the @miamirosenstiel.bsky.social Climate Café Series... our topic was "The Future of Climate. A look back at 2023 and the best available science to plan for the future."

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Time series of sea surface temperature averaged over Jul-Aug-Sep around south Florida, from 1982-2025. The trend is upward at a rate of approximately 0.5 °F per decade.

Here's a 2025 update to a plot I made last year for the @miamiresilience.bsky.social.
This is a dramatic trend in summertime ocean temperatures around south Florida. Not only does this have an impact on marine life, it also affects the weather (heat & humidity) on the Florida peninsula. 🧪🌊

Other dewpoint records:
New record high monthly averages were set in February and July, and there were 57 new daily record highs set during the year.
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/eyw/

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Not sure how I missed this earlier, but #KeyWest set a new record high annual average dewpoint in 2025! The annual average last year was 71.8°F, beating the previous record of 71.7°F set in 2015. 🥵
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/eyw/

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Important update about Congressional efforts to prevent the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from being dismantled. Last week the White House threatened to veto any appropriations bill that protects NCAR. Despite this attempt at intimidation ... (1/ )

10 years ago today, Hurricane Alex formed in the northeast Atlantic, south of the Azores.
It was only the 3rd known hurricane formation during January (the others were in 1938 and 1954). Although the Atlantic hurricane season officially spans June 1 through November 30, nature can have other plans.

👀 @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social @taraduggan.bsky.social

This chart shows the annual total number of hours the water level spent above the mean high tide (red) and the minor flood threshold (blue).
1983 stands out: late Jan and late Feb full moons, coastal storms, and El Niño conspired to make that happen (tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels....)
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Heatmap chart showing the number of hours per day from 1898-2025 that the water level was above the mean high tide in San Francisco CA.

Following up on my recent post about #SeaLevelRise in Key West FL, here is the similar chart for San Francisco CA, home of the country's longest consecutive tide gauge record.
Although monthly tide data go back to 1854, hourly data used for these calculations begin in 1898. Impressive! 🧪🌊
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I agree with Joanne... that is a subjective threshold. For some people, that point has already been crossed and for others it could be decades away. How often is too often to have your streets or house be flooded? Do you even have or need insurance? The future favors the wealthy in places like that.

Thank you!
Yes, I could add more than the school's logo, I was just worried it would start to look cluttered.

Thank you!

Your eyes immediately see the colors warm throughout the year as you progress to more recent years. "King Tide season" is also evident in the Fall months. You'll also spot the influence of the lunar phase and a keen observer will spot notable hurricane storm surges.

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Key West's tide gauge record is a very long 113 years, and this chart shows the number of hours each day since 1913 that the water level spent above mean high tide (using the current 1983-2001 epoch). Key West has seen ~ 1 foot of SLR during this period, but the rate is increasing.

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"Heatmap" chart showing the number of hours per day from 1913-2025 that the water level spent above the mean high tide (using the current 1983-2001 epoch) at Key West FL.

This is one of my favorite ways to visualize #SeaLevelRise...

With another year of verified water levels at Key West behind us now (as of today), here's the updated version of this chart I've been making for the past decade or so. 🧪🌊

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Additional resources: bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/vk/resources...