7-3 ₿

there hasn't been a 20%+ gain since july. showing how volatility has decreased over time, we're currently in the 2nd biggest lull since 2016, with the prior biggest lull being august 2022 to january 2023.

this isn't what precedes a bear market. the bull market finale is still yet to come. #bitcoin

finally able to add our first -20% line since april. similar to other bull runs, we've gone very long stretches between big drops. #bitcoin

just tried it and the right shift key feels like serial killer vibes. left shift key for life

seemingly still following the same trend from 2023. sideways and down until we don't, and ultimately up again. feels like we'll have resolution of the channel well before february but it's an interesting view of things. #bitcoin

to add injury to insult, not only did we have a crazy pull back but i also had a bad back injury about a month ago. first time back at my PC since then. following price action a little but it's been a great time to step away for a while and not over trade. still waiting on 120k for major moves

what’s your position looking like?

Bitcoin’s Silent IPO: Why This Consolidation Isn’t What You Think The quiet liquidity event reshaping Bitcoin’s ownership base and its future stability

good article about #bitcoin and its distribution price action. read it

open.substack.com/pub/visserla...

going back to touch-grass mode for a while. see you guys at 120k

can’t say i’d blame you either way! it’ll depend so much on your financial situation. i’m keeping all my chips in for now. i don’t mind waiting for years if i’m wrong, but i don’t think i am. hard to break conviction (re: stubbornness) that has built up for a decade

in the last month, 2 out of the 7 main traders i respect said they sold for the cycle. i think history will show they sold too early.

although, these 2 in particular timed the 2021 peak well and went all in at 16k, so it’s hard to blame them for securing the ~7x if they feel they hit their number

we’re now about 60 days into that now. gold seems to have topped but we’ll see. if a risk-on narrative can stick, we should see rotation from gold to bitcoin within the next 30 days

still looking for the V-shaped recovery part of this

price action looks like it’s been annoying chop lately. the hope is that this is part of a big deleveraging event before going higher, similar to june ‘25…and april ‘25…and august ‘24, etc

question is whether we get an actual capitulation event or if it’ll be time-based capitulation. #bitcoin

if there's a bright side, i've talked about that damn liquidity at 107k for months now. ripping off that band-aid means one less reason we need to head down. i know it doesn't feel that way but that's bullish.

set a price alert for 120k and step away from the charts for a while. we'll all be okay.

a cartoon drawing of a red car with a coin on top of it ALT: a cartoon drawing of a red car with a coin on top of it

been a while since it made sense to post this. most oversold bitcoin has hit on an hourly since August 2023

it truly is crazy. just waving as we go by and remembering all of the fond memories

hey a win is a win. at least you didn't long the top on leverage like a lot of people did

uh bitcoin i was thinking we might hit 108k eventually, not in like an hour. wow that was an insane wick! have to love the volatility

the problem for bad market news happening on a friday is that crypto is the only game in town that’s open all weekend and often becomes the punching bag for people who derisked too late. will definitely be interesting to see how momentum holds up

2nd half of the month has been better the majority of the time. uptober isn’t dead yet

worked out in feb and august. litecoin counter-indicator remaining undefeated. thought for sure it’d break this time – because it has to fail sometime – but this wasn’t it. it pumped 14% and just as it started looked good market drops. still, its ETF is coming soon so maybe it’ll get the last laugh

during the original tariff fears in march, #bitcoin fell below the band we could’ve expected to bounce from and instead hit the band below.

if that happened again, we could hit the band below us now at 108-109k. personally i think we bounce within days and not weeks, but could take a bit to resolve

in a bull market, red days are for buying. still within our band amid the new tariff fears.

finally allocated the 8% cash i had in my trading stack and back to all in. 83% btc and 13% btc miners. probably just sitting on my hands for the next week and trying not to overtrade. lots of Q4 left to go

looking like a pretty nice retest of that 119-120k band so far. working to get above and stay over past resistance, like many other times in this cycle.

as we're near the rising wedge's bottom, we don't want to see a weekly close below 120k. under 113k i'd be real nervous. under 104k probably ggs.

i guess they're not mutually exclusive feelings. in the past, alts topped 2-5 weeks after bitcoin. litecoin usually a little earlier but we haven't seen euphoria for most alts.

rotation from gold and equities hasn't even started yet, in my opinion. nov/dec 2024 is what a top looks and feels like

though if i did have to draw one it'd probably look like this. doesn't seem unreasonable but not enough data yet

doesn't feel like a new descending channel yet. seems more like an intermezzo, similar to other times this cycle.

i would expect us to gap up over the next few weeks and start to form a new channel. although it's possible we see something like Oct 2024 and retest the top of the channel first

after the craziness of the last 2 weeks, still just ranging. bummer to see acceptance back into the range.

2 weeks ago at 108k a lot of people thought we'd sweep the august lows, myself included. the pump then left people behind. it'd be very strange if the market now gave those people a good entry

115k definitely feels cheap now. 120k is starting to feel that way too but maybe not quite there yet. 125k still doesn't feel very cheap. therefore, some continued ranging between 115k-125k makes sense

dude found another way to say "btc's gone up ~3 yrs then down ~1 yr!" like congrats on finding the 4 yr cycle

for diminishing math, you can make numbers say anything:

'13 top-'17 top = 17x
'17 top-'21 top = 3.5x

an 84% reduction. another 84% reduction is 0.6x therefore the 2025 top should be 41k.