Gerard Brady

Hard to know. Lots of speculation about 232 or sectoral special tariffs. But hard to know for sure what the current US admin is thinking. Lots of intra-company intermediates in those exports and lack of skilled capacity for substitutability domestically doesn't make it an easy one - same on chips.

Just finished an Ibec webinar with over 750 members. In our new analysis deck, link below, we have tried to answer as much as we can, given what we know, on the scale and shape of the economic impact for Ireland. Podcast later for the audible learners.

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

Happy 'Liberation Day' to all who celebrate. May your supply chains be disrupted, your capacity underutilised, your consumer confidence sapped, and may all your investment decisions be stalled by uncertainty.

Oh yeah, I mean the whole thing, not just yesterday.

There has been a lot of shite talked about moment x or y being 'Europe's defining moment' in the last fifteen years. This feels quite different to me.

Analysis: EU is gearing up to fight Trump on tax, but Ireland needs a deal The EU is adamant it is sticking to a global corporate tax deal even though the US has threatened a tax war if it does. So what now?

I've some words in this piece on Trump's exec order, which targets foreign companies with punitive US tax, if their HQ jurisdiction is 'unfairly' taxing US MNEs.

Agree with quotes from Pascal Saint Amans on the neatest route to de-escalation. EU should take it.

www.businesspost.ie/politics/ana...

Target price, not quantity A warning from Europe's best-governed country

This is a really interesting post on quantity versus price targeting on an externality.

More generally, a must-read blog on European policy.

www.siliconcontinent.com/p/target-pri...

Talking to a lot of companies about the current macro environment. Two common themes - "looking through" short-run noise where possible and stalling bigger decisions where uncertainty is high.

The option value of doing nothing is proportional to 'noise'. Uncertainty is an investment killer

If you're bored waiting for the Government to be formed, here's a handy chart from yesterday's Ibec Economic Outlook on the impact of tariffs on Ireland/Europe under various scenarios of dollar appreciation.

Can be framed or hung directly as a poster.

A piece on employment growth in Ireland by sector. I've divided the years into periods based on vibes.

Despite the drop during Covid, employment growth in recent years has been the strongest it has ever been. But importantly it has been driven by higher productivity sectors.

The phrase 'Multi hazard weather event' is a crime against clarity.

Employment in Republic to be 500,000 up on pre-pandemic level by end 2025, predicts Ibec Group’s chief economist Ger Brady says State’s exceptionallystrong performance had led to capacity constraints in a range of sectors

My wrap of 2024 in the IT. Many challenges ahead, but end on a positive. By Dec 2025, employment will be +500,000 in five years.

“we have the financial resources and skills necessary to unlock our economic potential... for the first time in the State’s history.”

www.irishtimes.com/business/202...

Opinion: Time for Europe and Ireland to get their own houses in order Ireland has the financial resources and skills necessary to unlock our economic potential, arguably for the first time in the State’s history

A piece in the IT from Ibec CEO Danny McCoy.

"Smaller nations such as Ireland must now take greater responsibility in addressing Europe’s challenges. Europe cannot let the politics of other blocs distract from resolving the structural issues hindering its own growth and living standards."

Evening Extra - 02/12/2024 - BBC Sounds The day’s top stories with Richard Morgan, Tara Mills and Declan Harvey.

It was great to be on BBC Radio Ulster yesterday evening to talk about elections, housing, infrastructure and Ireland's place in an uncertain world with Richard Morgan and @orla-hegarty.bsky.social.

From about 40 minutes here.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

We sometimes give out about localism, etc. But I think that openness of the syste is a really important part of mediating between local communities and a highly globalised society/economy. Not every country has it.

Just to recognise before the polls, the effort and time candidates put in on behalf of their communities. And the importance of the representativness and transparency of our electoral system. Both are important at a time when there is sometimes growing alienation or mistrust globally.

The main thing to remember now about the impact of this section of the debate is that all the normal people have gone to bed #leadersdebate #rtept

As a private voter, my three key issues for the election are:

1. Public transport,
2. Care/disabilities, and

3. This one bit of my walk to the village where the footpath disappears for about 20 metres and you either have to cross the road and then cross back again, or take your chances.

I'd probably be pushing it if I said there should be a question on our response and Europe's to Draghi/Letta, which is equally an important debate as the US questions.

On the economy, the thing I'd most like to hear in the @news.rte.ie debate is what the parties *won't* do if the corporate tax take slows.

And their plans for issues, like infrastructure capacity & energy costs, which are already impacting investment in sectors that deliver those resources.

Worth checking out this useful analysis, breaking down the key General Election manifesto commitments by the political parties, aligned with key Ibec policy pillars for business and industrial development.

Link to the full thing here:
cdn.ibec.ie/-/media/docu...

Donald Trump's trade threat casts dark shadow over election giveaways ?Future trade tensions between the European Union and the United States are the biggest economic threat facing the next Irish government, economists have warned.

I have some quotes in today's Sindo. Europe and Ireland's most immediate economic challenges are entirely home-grown - as outlined in Draghi and elsewhere.

“The erosion of our competitiveness is, more than anything, driven by investor concerns about the ability to complete projects here.”

Gerard Howlin: The false election promises being made to Ireland’s under-40s Forget ‘one for everyone in the audience’, there’s two for everyone in the audience. Unless what you want is choice

Gerry Howlin's read on the manifestos.

"The issue is not any specific measure. It is that a volatile future is left in hock to an ever-narrower tax base, dependent on fewer sources of income, for a declining percentage of workers supporting an ever-older society."

Monetary policy tightening and the green transition The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purch...

Chart from this excellent Isabel Schnabel presentation on the green transition and higher rates. Really relevant now.

www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...

Agree with this piece. Trump policies, if implemented, don't necessarily have a big impact on adoption of tech. But spell higher interest rates, which impacts electrification. Renewables are capital intensive and the levelised cost of energy is highly sensitive to rates.

No rush. Nothing else going on in the world.

When you know this thing is really taking off is when you get the corporate brand customer service accounts transferring over.

I'm thinking about taking up smoking because of this debate #RTEUpfront

Best of luck to the RTE staff who are in charge of studio design for this exercise in vigorous multi-party democracy.

The idea of these starter packs is a great one. No notes.