Read more about the work in this ESCoE blog: tinyurl.com/5t353dm9
@fraserofallander.org
Bridging the micro–macro divide:
A new paper by Gary Koop, @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social, James Mitchell and Ping Wu sets out a method for embedding detailed microdata directly within macroeconomic time-series models: tinyurl.com/5t353dm9
@fraserofallander.org @unistrathclyde.bsky.social
@unistrathclyde.bsky.social @escoeorg.bsky.social
More broadly, the framework provides a flexible way to study micro-macro linkages and heterogeneous effects of macro shocks.
We hope it is useful for work on distributional dynamics and heterogeneous-agent macro.
Paper here: www.clevelandfed.org/publications...
Revisiting the distributional effects of business cycle shocks using US earnings data, we find:
Positive cyclical shocks benefit those in the lower tail most strongly, particularly younger workers, men, and those without a college education.
This lets us study distributional dynamics while still preserving rich micro heterogeneity, rather than collapsing everything into summary statistics or functional approximations.
We develop a new “pseudo-VAR” framework that brings repeated cross-section micro data directly into a macro VAR.
By constructing pseudo-individuals and modelling them jointly with macro variables, we can trace how shocks transmit across demographic and socioeconomic groups.
Existing approaches can track distributional impacts of macro shocks, showing how inequality or different percentiles respond over time.
But they typically cannot look within the distribution to identify which specific types of individuals are most or least affected.
New research paper!
We often know how macro shocks affect the income distribution. But we usually cannot see who within that distribution gains or loses. In a new @clevelandfed.bsky.social paper with Gary Koop, James Mitchell and Ping Wu, we propose a way to open that black box...
Real-time indicator of #Eurozone economy rose slightly in December 2025; positive indications for the performance of services continued to support #Eurocoin, which also benefited from signs of recovery in the construction sector, @cepr.org @voxeu.org
cepr.org/about/news/e...
"I was struck by the openness of the discussions, and the willingness of experts from around the world to share the challenges they face and potential solutions to meet them."
ESCoE Engagement Director Darren Morgan reflects on the recent UNSW-ESCoE Conference: tinyurl.com/yc7wbh8b
Fascinating new analysis by the ONS on UK #business #dynamism and #productivity. Firms employing a third of workers in the non-financial business economy contributed negatively, and the next third only marginally, to productivity #growth.
Full ONS analysis: bit.ly/48Yhqqn
We're recruiting for a Research Assistant
We're looking for someone interested in one or more of the following - institutions; governance; devolution; place-based policy; and public administration.
📆 Apply by 5 January 2026
🔗https://www.cam.ac.uk/jobs/research-assistant-fixed-term-jb48083
📘New report from David Waite, Graeme Roy, Stuart McIntyre and Niall G MacKenzie sets out new options for Scotland’s city region policy.
Read more: www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...
Great to host a workshop for ESCoE PhD students and Early Career Researchers @kingsbschool.bsky.social, @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social earlier this month.
Find out more about ESCoE's research programme: escoe.ac.uk/research
NEW Policy Insights: Next steps for city-region policy in Scotland 💡📝
Where does policy need to go next and what opportunities are there to strengthen regional working?
@davidwglasgow.bsky.social @graemeroy.bsky.social @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social, Niall MacKenzie
🔗 www.gla.ac.uk/research/az/...
What kinds of careers can you build in and around research, and how do you get started?
Career stories from ESCoE researchers and staff members.
@joshmartinecon.bsky.social @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social
ONS has taken a lot of stick recently over problems with core economic statistics, but its response today on the public finance stats - setting out what happened and a path forward - is a frank and useful explainer from the new team that's to be welcomed. blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/10/08/a...
What does this mean for how we understand jobs, unemployment, and the labour market?
Read @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social on what’s been going wrong with labour market statistics – and what’s at stake. 👇 🔗 buff.ly/sfvLfFo
The quality & trustworthiness of economic statistics have been in the news on both sides of the Atlantic - what's been going on?
@stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social @econ-observatory.bsky.social
www.economicsobservatory.com/labour-marke...
@stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social presents ESCoE work with @fraserofallander.org using innovative time-series methods to assess how UK regions respond to business cycle & monetary policy shocks.
#EconStats2025
Finally @stuartgmcintyre.bsky.social presents preliminary work on measuring regional resilience to economic shocks. Finding measures for resistance, recovery, renewal and reorientation.
Two days to go to apply for a Lectureship (Teaching and Research) at @uniofstandrews.bsky.social economics!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DMM015/l...
The long shortlist for the 2024 Enlightened Economist book of the year www.enlightenmenteconomics.com/blog/index.p... (NB my entirely arbitrary and personal choice)
Lots of political arguments in the weeks ahead about plans to remove the UC two-child limit in Scotland, but those aside an important process point - this is a £200m+ a year commitment which has not been costed because it was added too late... #scotbudget fiscalcommission.scot/wp-content/u...
And now @econ-observatory.bsky.social is here too!
🤖New working paper🤖
Those from low SES backgrounds are less likely to enter "elite" occupations than their high SES peers, even when they have the same qualifications.
But are low SES individuals less likely to enter high quality jobs in general?
repec-cepeo.ucl.ac.uk/cepeow/cepeowp24…
New report from @theifs.bsky.social highlighting new disability claimants are:
a) younger
b) more likely to claim due to mental health problems
c) women
Really worrying trend here with longer term implications
ifs.org.uk/publications...
A literature review on the impact of minimum wages on low-wage labor markets, from Arindrajit Dube and Attila S. Lindner https://www.nber.org/papers/w32878
