Andrew A. Michta

NATO and the Future of European Security: The German Question Four years ago, it would have been hard to believe that U.S. relations with its European NATO allies would reach another inflection point. Much of the current flux stems from the changing power distri

The key question for NATO’s future is whether the United States will remain fully engaged on the continent and how German-Russian and German-Chinese relations will evolve going forward. My latest for RCD. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...

En cas d’invasion de Taïwan par la Chine, le scénario d’une diversion de Poutine en Europe ANALYSE - Le secrétaire général de l’Otan, Mark Rutte, a remis sur la table la question clé de l’alliance sino-russe que Washington a tenté d’éviter sans succès.

Worth reading by Le Figaro’s brilliant Laure Mandeville—including a few quotations from me. En cas d’invasion de Taïwan par la Chine, le scénario d’une diversion de Poutine en Europe www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...

Happy Easter!

Army Planners Are Weighing Force Reductions of Up to 90,000 Active-Duty Soldiers The Army is quietly considering a sweeping reduction of up to 90,000 active-duty troops, a move that underscores mounting fiscal pressures at the Pentagon and a broader shift in military strategy away...

Reportedly, Army planners are w weighing force reductions of up to 90,000 active-duty soldiers. If this story is confirmed and the reductions implemented, this will have more impact than all the debates about the future of NATO. Facts on the ground. www.military.com/daily-news/2...

Excuse me? You want to protect yourselves not from Russia but from America? Have you looked at the map lately? This is precisely the kind of talk that makes me wonder what planet European elites are on. My advice: Breathe….

Donald Trump's Russia Strategy Could End NATO as We Know It The Trump administration's effort to pivot towards Russia, ostensibly to distance Moscow from Beijing, risks undermining NATO and weakening transatlantic unity.

„At the core of this unprecedented turmoil in transatlantic relations is what appears to be a fundamental shift in the United States’ relationship with Russia, which is the larger context of the Ukraine cease-fire negotiations.” My take for 19FortyFive

www.19fortyfive.com/2025/03/dona...

Yep.

Recommended.

Thanks.

No more Q, thank you @andrewmichta.bsky.social! #sivispacemparabellum www.atlanticcouncil.org/insight-impa... via @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social

Russia’s Imperial Mindset: Understanding the Roots of the Ukraine War As the second Trump administration prepares to take charge of US foreign and security policy, there is intense debate in Washington about what the end state in Ukraine should be, what kind of a peace ...

“Russia will take the West seriously and heed its warnings only if it sees that we possess the military capabilities and, most importantly, the intestinal fortitude to deter aggression and, if need be, defend our interests with force.” My latest. www.19fortyfive.com/2025/01/russ...

The United States Must Revisit the Basics of Geostrategy It has become something of a cliché in Washington policy debates that the world today is more unstable and dangerous than at any time since the end of the Cold War. But even this statement doesn’t ful...

We find ourselves in an environment increasingly reminiscent of the late 1930s, where the overarching balance of power is becoming ever-less stable.
www.19fortyfive.com/2024/12/the-...

The Pentagon Should Rethink What Weapons and Munitions It Should Buy The war in Ukraine has put paid to many assumptions about the weapons systems and munitions the U.S. military needs going forward.  For the past three decades our defense industrial base has oper

We need to relearn that the effectiveness of our weapons doesn’t rest solely on the relentless pursuit of the technological holy grail, but that these are tools that must be crafted to consider the geography and type of fight the enemy is likely to favor. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...

The US should help NATO allies that help themselves Washington should prioritize its defense cooperation with member states that are doing the most to bolster their own defenses, especially the Northeast corridor allies.

The United States should encourage, work more closely with, and reward those allies that spend the money and share the risk to ensure their own defense and to resource NATO’s regional plans with real exercised capabilities—the Northeast corridor in NATO. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

It was an honor to testify at this important hearing. www.youtube.com/live/hUJrrZm...

Today’s hearing on on Ukraine on Capitol Hill including my testimony www.csce.gov/press-releas...

Opinion | Pentagon Has Two Years to Prevent World War III To prepare, Defense Secretary-designate Pete Hegseth will need to overhaul the bureaucracy and cut waste.

“Assuming China sticks to its Taiwan timeline, the next secretary has two years to prevent World War III.” I’ve warned repeatedly that the next two-three years will be decisive in both the Atlantic and the Pacific theaters. Rearmament must be top priority. www.wsj.com/opinion/two-...

Russia and China: Two Countries, One Threat Since the outbreak of all-out war in Ukraine, debate has raged in the US on whether the Russian and Chinese threats can be separated.

“By bringing Pyongyang into the fight, Moscow has dropped all pretense that it is concerned about horizontal escalation.” cepa.org/article/russ...

No amount of AI assisted systems or long-range precision fires can compensate for the stark reality that the United States needs to design and manufacture weapons that it can deploy in large numbers. www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...

The US should help NATO allies that help themselves Washington should prioritize its defense cooperation with member states that are doing the most to bolster their own defenses, especially the Northeast corridor allies.

“The United States should encourage, work more closely with, and reward those allies that spend the money and share the risk to ensure their own defense and to resource NATO’s regional plans with real exercised capabilities.” My take. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

Thank you for your service! God bless! #VeteransDay2024

www.csce.gov/press-releas.... I look forward to testifying next week.

@andrewmichta.bsky.social
Director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative

The world today is more fractured than at any time since the end of the Cold War. We are heading for a period of protracted systemic instability, with #Europe,--
alt👀
⁦⁦
My take. ⬇️ www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...

Thanks.

Germany to halt new Ukraine military aid: Report The ban, which is already in place, will affect all new requests for assistance to Kyiv, Germany’s FAZ newspaper reported.

#Germany #Ukraine
x.com/andrewmichta...
Andrew A. Michta
@andrewmichta.bsky.social 👏🙏

If confirmed, this is the worst moment for such a decision by #Berlin. It sends exactly the wrong message. It should be reversed immediately.
#ArmUkraineNow #StandWithUkraine
🔴 www.politico.eu/article/germ...

Connecting this to @andrewmichta.bsky.social call in City Journal piece for domestic industrial rejuvenation. www.city-journal.org/article/waki...

Waking A Weary Superpower How America can overcome its crisis of self-confidence

Very important essay from @andrewmichta.bsky.social: Strategic prioritization is key; must avoid "everything is a priority" approach but also ability to recognize legacy priorities may diminish as geopolitical/geoeconomic conditions change. 1/ www.city-journal.org/article/waki...

It’s time for an American national security strategy that doesn’t merely speak about “maintaining the rules-based international order” in normative terms, but draws a geostrategic map of the world that favors US interests—as well as those of its allies. @politico.eu www.politico.eu/article/west...

My comments on the importance of continued US aid to Ukraine via Newsweek www.newsweek.com/afghanistan-...

A path to Ukraine’s membership in NATO—via AtlanticCouncil, including my endorsement. Please share. #StandWithUkraine.