Nikolas Gvosdev

Water, Power, and the Future of Conflict | South Shore Consulting We see increased strain on water resources between meeting human needs (drinking water, food production) and industrial/economic needs (data centers, power generation, chip fabrication), trends Adrian...

More on the #trilemma - and the food/water/energy nexus as a national security priority seems to have gotten more attention this year at #MSC2026: www.linkedin.com/posts/we-see...

Why Metals Crashed: The Arithmetic of a 15x Beat While the "Safe Haven" destroyed trillions, our Fortress ideas returned 14.9%. Inside the "Shadow Swap" that stackers missed.

Combining geopolitics with cold financial analysis to avoid losses. @lemelson.bsky.social: "sobriety and the arithmetic of free cash flow are the only true hedges against the madness of crowds and imperial aggression." lemelson.substack.com/p/why-silver...

More commentary at #MSC20206 suggests that moving forward #NATO needs to focus on defending the territory of #NATO member-states, not look for additional missions or expand the zone of #NATO responsibility.

Now hearing that she misspoke and meant the “trans-Atlantic partnership” … nevertheless shows an evolution towards a more establishment Democratic position …

Fascinating to hear AOC at #MSC2026 endorsing Trans-Pacific Partnership given the vehement opposition to the pact among progressives a decade ago.

Message I am hearing is that U.S. interest in degrading Russian power and reducing Moscow’s influence does not require Ukraine’s victory.

Pentagon and Department of Agriculture sign MOU on national farm security action plan, recognizing food security is national security. #Trilemma as national security! Something I’ll address in forthcoming chapter in Oxford Handbook on Human Security. global.oup.com/academic/pro...

Benjamin Netanyahu set to urge Donald Trump to get tough with Tehran in Washington visit Israeli prime minister wary of a possible US-Iran deal as president continues to waver on threats of military action

In the @financialtimes.com @cfr.org Ray Takeyh notes that the Israelis "want to move the lawn again" in terms of Iran's nuclear program, but #POTUS not necessarily convinced. AEI's Colin Dueck says the last person who talks to him on the issue will set the course ... www.ft.com/content/c8ef...

Recession of Russian influence is quite noticeable … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

The Azeri Times on X: "🇦🇿🤝🇺🇸 just signed a Strategic Partnership Charter, but what’s actually inside it? 👀 It formalizes a long-term, comprehensive bilateral framework moving beyond previous ad-hoc or transactional deals and is described by both leaders as opening "an entirely new phase" or "new https://t.co/2EwYiJAjFf" / X 🇦🇿🤝🇺🇸 just signed a Strategic Partnership Charter, but what’s actually inside it? 👀 It formalizes a long-term, comprehensive bilateral framework moving beyond previous ad-hoc or transactional deals and is described by both leaders as opening "an entirely new phase" or "new https://t.co/2EwYiJAjFf

A U.S. role in both Azerbaijan's nuclear sector as well as helping with Caspian maritime security would be major setbacks for Russia ... Demonstrates major erosion of Russian compellent power although Moscow might count on American lack of follow-through ... x.com/AzeriTimes/s...

Also suggests that Washington may be in no particular hurry to end the conflict; a Russia fully engaged in Ukraine has less time, energy, resources to focus elsewhere. 2/

Watching the rapid advance of U.S. influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia, clear U.S. is using Russia's Ukraine quagmire the way China expanded its position while the U.S. was focused on Iraq. 1/

Japan’s election tests its ability to navigate the Trump era - Asia Times Subscribe now with a one-month trial for only $1, then enjoy the first year at an exclusive rate of just $99. Japan’s political equilibrium is on the

In latest Asia Times #GRRM James Davis assesses why negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict won’t succeed … and Diego Faßnacht analyzes possible gaps between Germany’s rhetoric on defense and its actual capabilities. asiatimes.com/2026/02/japa...

On India’s announcement re: Russian oil. “Committed to” allows for a lot more wiggle room than “will cease”. Like how the nuclear powers commit to nuclear disarmament under the NPT.

As we’ve discussed Kirk is ready to go all out General Order 24 on Eminiar 7, but apparently here *sniff “can’t interfere.”

Do you teach future scholars and policymakers topics related to human security? If so, this book is for you! The first edition Oxford Handbook of Human Security is now available for pre-order… | Summ... Do you teach future scholars and policymakers topics related to human security? If so, this book is for you! The first edition Oxford Handbook of Human Security is now available for pre-order. Online...

Contributing my musings on the #trilemma and how it impacts the #prosperity_legitimacy_equation … www.linkedin.com/posts/summer...

Insight: Western start-ups seek to break China's grip on rare earths refining | Nikolas Gvosdev Following some interesting developments ... In aftermath of the #criticalminerals summit, will we see movement not just on mining deals but on developing new centers for processing? Can the U.S. and...

Refining matters just as much as extracting #criticalminerals. Now that the press releases are over, will capital and infrastructure pivot? www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

Robert Manning on X: "👇Whatever happened to the US 'nuclear renaissance?" / X 👇Whatever happened to the US 'nuclear renaissance?

China - 38
India - 6
Russia - 6
UK - 2
Iran - 1
United States - 0
2/
x.com/Rmanning4/st...

Over at X, @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Robert Manning Robert Manning asking what is happening with the so-called nuclear power renaissance in the United States? In terms of new reactors being built (not older ones being refurbished), the statistics don't yet show a boom in new construction 1/

There Is Only One Sphere of Influence America can project power with little constraint—and its rivals cannot.

Link here: 3/ www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The American sphere now stands alone. China and Russia cannot consolidate control over their own regions, much less project sustained power into the United States’ backyard. The result is not multipolarity but stark asymmetry: one consolidated American sphere and contested space everywhere else. 2/

@fpri.bsky.social colleague Michael Beckley in @foreignaffairs.com: The United States alone dominates a vast home region, not merely as a buffer against competitors such as China and Russia, but as a hemispheric base from which American power and commerce can project outward ... 1/

Germany’s Future after the “Merkel Era”? | Nikolas Gvosdev So updating on this. Saw the Export-Import Bank of the United States tweet on the #criticalminerals vault, and found it interesting that one of its bullet points is to stress that it will be an "indep...

Is the administration going to spin off key #geotechnology and #geoeconomic initiatives into independent public-private partnerships to keep them out of the reach of future administrations? www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

@patrickmcronin.bsky.social noting #criticalminerals summit part of an effort to shift from ad hoc friend-shoring to deliberate industrial bloc formation, using coordinated trade rules to secure upstream minerals critical to downstream manufacturing, technology & defense.

Bitcoin price plunge makes it interesting to see how this affects Tether’s ability to redeem its stable coins for dollars although I assume they’ve also been shifting into gold … their ability to guarantee 1:1 on demand seems to have been grounded in the value of their crypto holdings.

Interview: NATO's Open-Door Rhetoric On Ukraine Is Running Up Against Harsh Realities | Nikolas Gvosdev #Deterrence requires not only capability but communicating that one possesses said capability and more critically, the commitment to act. The #3Cs of Thomas Schelling remain apropos with two current n...

From posts I saw from @nahaltoosi.bsky.social and @hoanssolo.bsky.social some concerns on #deterrence ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

Germany’s Future after the “Merkel Era”? | Nikolas Gvosdev Plenty of excellent commentators are weighing in on the #criticalminerals summit (from Rachel Ziemba to John Sitilides) and will link to analyses in the comments to this post to help aggregate ... for...

Trying to connect today's #criticalminerals summit to the bigger picture of reconceptualizing alliances ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

#CriticalMinerals summit in Washington seems to be moving in this direction ... announcement of new U.S.-Japan-EU "plurilateral" framework ... ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

@javierblas.bsky.social notes: Under Donald Trump, the US government is relying heavily upon some of the world's top commodity traders:

- Deal with Glencore to buy Congo copper/cobalt mines
- Using Vitol and Trafigura to move Venezuela oil
- Mercuria, Hartree, and Traxys involved on Project Vault

The US Is Not Built For War Or Peace: America's Industrial Resilience Gap - Foreign Policy Research Institute That episode is a stark warning for military logistics. The same cascading failure that paralyzed civilian mobility could halt the movement of forces from

We have an "industrial resilience gap" that needs to be addressed. 2/ www.fpri.org/article/2026...