Drones highway in the Volga lowlands.

will make it public after 20K X subs

It was hot on Pokrovsk today

February was the most consistent missile terror so far.

115 Ballistic missiles were used.

Based on the launches: Iskander production is 3/4 a day.
Kh-101 production wasn't abandoned, but rescaled to 3/4 same as Iskander.

Distributed combined attack
focused at energy infrastructure as usual.

The most noticeable news is Kh-22 that supposedly fall in Russia.

374/420 Drones (280 Shahed)
24/24 Kh-101
4/11 Iskander-M
2/2 Zircon
2/2 Kh-59

32 locations were hit, 15 more damaged with debris.
Couple of missiles were lost.

Suriyak and DS maps comparison

Suriyak territorial changes are -105km²: captured 216km², lost 321km².

DS territorial changes are 190km²: captured 102km², grayed 88km².

Visualized Mediazona losses. 1 dot - 5 confirmed bodies.

that GSUA numbers are fake

Lights and ballistic strikes
youtu.be/m5VHETDtQ_M?...

Traded Red for Black

Dots of War

1 per 5 Mediazona pixels

The most recent Mediazona update reinforced GSUA alignment as well as changed ratio from 1:6 to 1:5.

When expected is 1:4 for 2024 with further decay.

Now @en.zona.media is getting closer to the "wrong" expectations people argued about.

Big discoveries awaits

200186 pixels
@en.zona.media casually dropped +23K casualties update.

2026 - 291
2025 - 36205
2024 - 82265
2023 - 45439
2022 - 19674

Significant update for 2024.
*GSUA 2024 is 430.320

Ukrainians, for their part, have made their choice clear. They decided to fight. Whatever comes next begins there.

Empires that fall rarely accept the diagnosis cleanly, and simple, forgiving human nature, the very quality that allows the world to move forward despite local catastrophes, is also what gives aggressors room to regroup and reframe. That is the uncomfortable bargain of civilization.

And so we arrive at year five with no simple cure for this tumor. The bloodshed may eventually exhaust itself into some pause, but the war - in its deeper sense, the contest over identity, sovereignty, and whether raw force can still redraw maps - will continue long after the guns find silence.

Nobody orchestrated this. It was organic consequence - the natural evolution of actions meeting the resistance they were always going to meet.

Russian inability to end the war quickly pushed reluctant nations toward support, not out of principle, but out of strategic interest. The attempt by some to protect their profits and stay neutral only created space for others to benefit from proxy status and shifting supply chains.

Russia's manufactured imperial obsession created the very threat it claimed to be reacting to, and Ukraine's terror of that obsession was proven rational every time Russia opened its mouth or moved its troops - no country did more to justify Ukrainian fear than Russia itself.

These are largely prophets of delusion, constructed to reinforce what we already believe rather than explain what actually occurred. The events that actually unfolded did so through the accumulated pressure and miscalculation of a world in rough, imperfect balance.

There were multiple events that could have changed the flow of the war - things that happened and things that didn't - that people build theories and conspiracies around: Ukrainian war preparations, Russian mobilization timelines, Western involvement, the global south's calculated neutrality.

Russia is losing the conventional war but will fight on any battleground it is allowed to.

The Black Sea Fleet hides from a country with no navy. A third of strategic aviation is gone. Drone swarms now threaten the Urals themselves. What was sold as a short walk in the park became an endurance race to the bottom, and the price and distance left to run keeps growing.

Ukraine was, by every confident assessment from Moscow, doomed. But as we enter year five, the nature of Russian victories has quietly revealed itself: sheds captured, houses counted, poisoned wastelands taken that were once productive ground.

The Incapable War

Four years ago, when Russia rolled into Ukraine, there were no illusions about what the country's future held. Russian forces advanced alongside their propaganda machine in lockstep - dismantling AFU defenses, seizing major cities, and confidently predicting a swift conclusion.

Ukraine hit Kaleikino oil pumping station near Almetyevsk - largest pipeline node in russia.
Ukraine already hit Unecha, and Russia damaged Ukrainian section of the pipeline.
That should significantly limit russian export capacities

Sorties are a great weather indicator, but that is not always an option, as infantry often rely on advancing in bad weather. However, drone pressure does not end when the weather improves and the enemy does not want to move, as drones will focus on every shelter they find.

Over the past year, performance trends have remained relatively constant, and there are no strong indicators of imminent change unless Russia develops another cost-effective breakthrough capability comparable to mass KAB usage or external industrial involvement significantly expands.

The term “Avdiivka collapse” is misleading; it followed multiple Russian improvements, including mass deployment of glide bombs (KABs), increased North Korean supply support, and broader shifts in operational dynamics.

6. Are Ukraine’s defensive lines robust enough to prevent further advances?
Defensive lines alone are not decisive. Anti-armor obstacles can route armored vehicles but cannot stop infantry, and infantry leads this war.