@benbutcher.bsky.social
Data Editor at the Telegraph. Pro-cats and pro-naps.
Gordon's piece looks at the excruciating politics behind it that leads to inaction, starting with the mad story of the £10 Christmas bonus received by all pensioners since the 1970s.
A completely meaningless benefit - costing us £160m a year.
bit.ly/3H0VgIw
But voters are right that something has to happen in the working-age side. This isn't a media frenzy.
The claimant count jumped over covid and simply won't go down - it's one million higher. One in 13 people are so sick they get benefits.
Something has to give...
And that means pensions - I cannot see a way the state can support 1 in 4 people with £12k+ a year. That's the reality in 30 years as the pop greys.
I do not think I will get the state pension (or not in its current format) - but who will be the one to make the change?
The masses were vehemently opposed to the cuts.
Reform voters are interesting on this: benefits should be cut they believe, just not the benefits they like. But the benefits they like are - I think - where the savings will ultimately have to come one day.
The point is that, despite the drastic political fallout over it, the savings were pittances.
Before the cuts, Winter Fuel was just 0.8pc of the entire welfare budget. Any major savings would have to go after one of the big ones: pensions, UC or Pip.
📊 A few interesting charts I made to help visualise
Gordon Rayner's weekend essay on the country's untouchable £300bn welfare bill.
By 2029, the Winter Fuel Payment will save £1.7bn a year. In the same period, the pensions bill will go up 10x that figure.
...but universities likely feel slightly forced to seek these foreign students in light of an incredibly difficult financial situation.
Yesterday, we reported that 61 (43pc) universities had posted a deficit last year. This was a record high.
bit.ly/4kaSBdL
Global politics feels increasingly uncertain - and unis have been warned that "a changing geopolitical environment which could cause an immediate and significant impact on income"
In relation to China, some unis really are incredibly reliant on this one crop of students
🧑🎓🇨🇳 In 2023, the Office for Students warned a number of universities about the risk of over-relying on Chinese students.
My and @poppywood.bsky.social's analysis shows that up to an estimated 55pc of all fees income is from Chinese students at some unis
bit.ly/44qith6
⛪️ Quickly read this article before it's entirely irrelevant - a run through of the makeup of the papabilli with some nifty analysis.
Tldr - perception of liberalism after Francis overstated, Vatican represents a very diverse base
These deficits come with the grimmer reality that universities are laying off more and more staff - easily the biggest expense of universities.
The reports highlight 10k+ redundancies last year, costing university hundreds of millions of pounds.
🧑🎓 We've been through the annual reports and the numbers are shocking - 61 universities recorded a deficit last year - 43pc of ttotal.
That's 43pc. Read mine and Poppy Wood's analysis, and see the unis which are now entering their sixth year in the red
bit.ly/4kaSBdL
These deficits come with the grimmer reality that universities are laying off more and more staff - easily the biggest expense of universities.
The reports highlight 10k+ redundancies last year, costing university hundreds of millions of pounds.
🧑🎓 We've been through the annual reports and the numbers are shocking - 61 universities recorded a deficit last year - 43pc of ttotal.
That's 43pc. Read mine and Poppy Wood's analysis, and see the unis which are now entering their sixth year in the red
bit.ly/4kaSBdL
🇵🇰🇮🇳 The context before the clash, as provided by
@meikeeijsberg.bsky.social
Violent events across the border regions of Pakistan and India had been increasing significantly in the build up to last nights event.
April saw four times more deaths than the previous month.
Finally, this is a chart of top Commonwealth/colonial countries and the jobs they're most likely to go into by average pay.
Not part of the narrative, just interesting.
Similarly, the care system is increasingly reliant. The care visa saw almost 150k care workers arrive between 2021 and 2024.
This is a minimum wage profession which is already totally unaffordable and unfunded. Can it survive without migrants?
It is a point made often, but immigration props up the NHS. Just since 2020, the migrant workforce has jumped from 14pc of workers to 18pc
It is a question many politicians fail to explain - how do we maintain an NHS in an ageing pop without migration and without raising tax
🌎 Accountants from South Africa, care workers from Zimbabwe, horticulturalists from Kyrgyzstan.
Each immigrant to the UK comes for a different reason, but data lets us spot the trends in the specialisms they bring...
- with @emily_retter
bit.ly/4kbN1b9
There is no way around it - this was the Tories worst election results in modern history. After 15 years in power, any promises to be tougher on immigration, crime etc. will surely fall on deaf ears?
Reform are the beneficiaries of that failure
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/202...
For both parties, it is clear who they need to win over: white working-class voters.
This chart shows the ward share vote in Northumberland. In more white working-class areas (over 30pc), Reform gained twice the vote.
This should scare Labour and the Tories
I'm not entirely convinced of the argument that this is an SDP/Ukip moment.
The organisation of Reform is mad. Almost all elections contested. This chart shows their performance against Ukip.
In 2013, Ukip won 6.3pc of seats. This year, Reform one other 40%.
These were Tory councils - rural counties, many of which had been in Conservative hands for decades:
✖️ Kent since 1997: -51 Tories
✖️ Leicestershire since 2005: -25
✖️ Staffordshire since 2009: -43
Reform were the main beneficiaries of this
The Tories had a projected vote share of 15%. The previous record low for the party was just 25% in 1993.
The two-party system stopped existing last night with Labour and Tories combined gaining just 35% of the vote - only five points clear of Reform on 30%
🗳️ Now all the results are in, our piece takes a step back and its puts in context how catastrophic last night was for the Tories.
5 years ago, they controlled over half of councillors in contested elections. Today less than 20%.
Reform have 40% 🧵
- @the-one-and-ollie.bsky.social
bit.ly/42YaFAR
But the UK might leave `liberation day` slightly less bruised than many other western allies with a base tariff of 10pc.
That's compared to rates over 20pc for Japan, EU and S. Korea.
The car industry is UK's biggest loser in terms of value.
In 2024, over a quarter of cars (in value) went to the United States, making it more exposed than many of our European neighbours
The UK benefits from some of those exemptions, including on pharmaceuticals, organic chemicals and some precious metals.
But it's top two trading elements are being hit by tariffs of up to 25pc for cars.
It's worth noting that those facing the fiercest tariffs are in the lower value of the USA's imports.
58pc of trade value partners are in the 20pc bracket or below. China makes up a very large part of the countries above 20pc.
And thats before removing notable exemptions...
No corner of the world has been been spared with Asia and southern Africa particularly hit by tariffs hitting north of 40pc.
Vietnam exports 30pc of goods to the USA - it is now going to pay tariffs of 46pc on most goods.
