SAC airstrikes on residential buildings in the village of Kyauk Ni Maw in Ramree township triggerred a fire storm which destroyed 500 houses. Current reports suggest 41 dead and 52 injured, but the numbers may rise

SAC and SNA joint forces have launched a counter attack against KIA positions in the east of Homalin township. Heavy fighting is reported near the villages of Par Hoke Gyi & Rar Lar Tee, near the border with Kachin State.

The remaining SAC bases in Mansi have been captured in full by KIA as of Wednesday morning. These are Light Infantry Battalions 319 & 601 and Artillery Battalion 523. Heavy fighting continues in Bhamo.

#Myanmar #Kachin

One month on from the start of the Bhamo offensive, KIA controls much of the urban area of the city, but SAC forces continue to hold out in the main bases of MOC-21. Similarly, in Mansi the SAC still holds the LIB 319 & 601 bases and Artillery Battalion 523.

In Bhamo, there are unconfirmed reports that soldiers from Infantry Battalion 47 (highlighted) have retreated from their base south of the city, and that KIA forces are working to clear mines and any remaining defenders.

#Myanmar #Bhamo

These reports give a clear indication that AA are moving into Ayeyarwady and, with the South Western Regional Command in Pathein severely depleted due to the fighting in Rakhine over the last year, it may prove difficult for SAC to prevent a deep advance.

SAC forces have reportedly retreated from Ma Gyi Zin in Ayeyarwady region as AA forces advance south from Gwa township. There have also been reports of fighting in the hills and forests to the east of here.

#Myanmar #Rakhine

Yes, this would be a sensible strategy. It will give them a very strong hand, with a wide range of options for whatever comes next.

SAC forces abandoned an army camp in Ku Taw village, Budalin township. This was the site of a major ambush by joint revolutionary forces in September, where ~30 soldiers were killed. The ambush was followed by brutal reprisals on the local civilian population.

#Myanmar #Sagaing

Fighting has been reported on all three of the major roads leaving Rakhine state over the last 2 days, at the borders of Rakhine with Magway, Bago & Ayeyarwady regions. So far the fighting appears positional, based on the limited reporting available.

#Myanmar #Rakhine

December also saw the capture of several major bases:

Rakhine, Ann - Western RMC + Light Inf. Battalions 371 & 372
Rakhine, Toungup - MOC-5 + Light Inf. Battalions 346 & 544
Rakhine, Maungdaw - Border Guard Police Battalion 5
Chin, Mindat - Inf. Battalion 274

And a visual representation of towns captured :
Squares = States/Regions
Diamonds = Divisions
Circles = Townships
Red highlights = Recent/ongoing major battle
Colours match the map
Size proportional to population

4 new major towns* captured** in December. Ann & Gwa by AA and Matupi & Kanpetlet by Chin Brotherhood forces. SAC now controls just 76% of major towns.

*major towns = main town of a township or sub-township administrative division
**control = majority control of the urban area

AA is strong, but it's also in a precarious position right now and needs international support to consolidate control in Rakhine. China is vital for them right now.

And the junta has full control over large, functioning ports in both cities, they could withdraw forces anytime, if they wanted to.

It would also be interesting to see where the Chinese PMC is located. If they are concentrated around China's key interests on Maday Island, then this would be far enough away from the SAC bases and the city to allow AA to attack.

This is one possibility but, even in victory, negotiations require an exchange of some kind. SAC may surrender some or all of the remaining territory, but they would expect a ceasefire or peace deal of some kind in return, guaranteed by a strong power with influence over AA.

However, many key issues will remain unresolvable as long as Rakhine's new status is unclear. While a declaration of independence would simplify the legal status of negotiations, it is more likely that Arakha will remain an autonomous quasi-state for some time.

Dhaka has strong interests at stake with a new power in Rakhine, including trade, border security and the issue of right to return for the one million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. The Arakha Army must also prioritise engagement with their only potentially friendly neghbour.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh has confirmed it is in contact with the Arakha Army regarding border issues.
https://buff.ly/3BYnpOg

This comes shortly after engagement with AA was raised at a meeting of the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies.
https://buff.ly/3ZQ69CI

It is not yet clear whether the SAC government is also willing to negotiate, as they continue to make military preparations on the border with Rakhine. Or whether the AA intend to continue their military offensives while discussing a potential peace.

Japan Backs Down After Military Council Rejects Rakhine Ceasefire Proposal - Rakhita Times Arakha Times (11 December 2024) Political analysts say that Japan has stepped back from efforts to mediate the armed conflict in Rakhine State after the military council rejected its ceasefire…

On the political side, there are reports that the Arakha Army may be ready to resolve the conflict through negotiations. This comes shortly after Japan stepped back from their negotiation efforts, and implies Chinese involvement.

https://buff.ly/4gXZJIG
https://buff.ly/3W0ekLO

Skirmishes are reported near the No. 32 Security Police Battalion in Kyaukphyu township. As with recent fighting in Sittwe, there is speculation that a new offensive could be underway, but reports so far are of a low intensity conflict.

#Myanmar #Rakhine

The AA have raised their flag in Kyauk Chon village at the southern border of Rakhine State. While it's hard to be certain about the more remote areas east of here, it is likely that AA now have effective control over more or less all of Gwa township.

#Myanmar #Rakhine

KNLA captured the Noet Day base (also known as point 913) in the Manerplaw region near the Thai border on 16th December. This is the last of several bases in the immediate region to be captured, after several months of fighting.

#Myanmar #Kayin

There are reports of fighting near the Kyauk Tan checkpoint at the northern entrance to Sittwe. This is the second report of fighting in Sittwe in recent days, raising the possibility that this is the start of a new offensive.

#Myanmar #Rakhine

If confirmed, this means the town of Gwa is now under AA control, and only the southern tip of Gwa township remains to be captured, with no significant military positions remaining before the southern border of Rakhine State.

There are early reports the Battalion 372 base in Gwa was captured by AA today, with the Battalion 373 base already captured, earlier this week. Clearing operations are ongoing as SAC forces retreat south along the coast road towards the Ayeyarwady region.

#Myanmar #Rakhine

In northern Chin State, the battle for Falam continues. The Chin Brotherhood forces captured the police station in November, but heavy fighting continues at the Battalion 268 base on the western edge of town.

The Chin Brotherhood have captured Mindat and Kanpetlet towns after a long offensive, giving Chin rebel forces effective control over the entire of southern Chin State.

#Myanmar #Chin

Thank you. It's something that I would like to do, but time is a problem for me. It's also an incredibly complex conflict, so if I do get to write something, it's unlikely to be brief!