Economics of War

Southeast Asia’s Mercenary Pipeline Russia is recruiting increasing numbers of fighters from the region, using deceptive practices pioneered by Southeast Asia-based online scam operations.

Russia is recruiting increasing numbers of fighters from Southeast Asia using deceptive practices pioneered by Southeast Asia-based online scam operations.

Білорусь за Лукашенка – завжди загроза для України: інтерв'ю з Тихановською Подробиці читайте на сайті

Whilst Tsikhanouskaya has a point that #Belarus acts as a military platform for Moscow, it is difficult to see Belarus included in any peace-deal as it complicates an already difficult task.

A different mechanism is needed to bring Lukashenka to account.

No. Penal battalions need to be a matter of choice.

Degradation of highly mobile systems makes air-defence more predictable, providing opportunities for systems less capable than Taurus or Tomahawk (which appear stuck in the quagmire of politics).

Romania to Buy Strategic Danube Port in Moldova State-owned Port of Constanta is set to acquire Giurgiulesti International Free Port from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, consolidating Romania’s role as a logistics hub.

Romania purchasing the only access #Moldova has to the Danube appears a strategic investment.

Giurgiulesti Port nestles the Ukrainian border, making it a strategic asset for Bucharest's long-term logistical support to Ukraine. This is particularly important for Ukrainian exports.

Nearly 11,000 North Korean troops stationed in Russia's Kursk Oblast at start of 2026, media reports Approximately 10,000 North Korean combat troops and 1,000 engineer troops are currently stationed in the front-line Russian region, according to the National Intelligence Service (NIS).

Garrisoning 11,000 troops in Kursk provides #NorthKorea with a steady flow of income, technology and experience. For Russia, it reduces the risk of another cross-border push by Ukraine.

Given Russia's manpower shortage, Pyongyang can expect significant economic returns for its martial investment.

It could be correct in that the Kremlin's spending on the Russo-Ukraine War is forecasted to decline as they face a fiscal crunch, which in turn will cool the economy somewhat.

Can't say that though.

Audit Bureau warns against continued fuel imports through barter arrangements The Audit Bureau has warned, in an official letter, against the continued use of the previous mechanism for importing fuel, stressing the need to adhere to public tendering as the legal and regulatory...

Recent work by the Audit Bureau in #Libya shows a willingness to move towards a more transparent, effective government.

Unfortunately the Haftar administration in the East of the country does not engage with the Bureau, leaving much of the country's finances.............murky.

Russian Companies Move Millions to Part-Time Work in Decade High - The Moscow Times Russian companies are increasingly moving employees to part-time work amid worsening economic conditions, the pro-Kremlin daily Izvestia reported Wednesday.

The move of millions of workers to part-time in #Russia is a catch-22 situation for the Kremlin. It means there are more potential recruits for the Russo-Ukraine War, but the economic downturn means there is less cash to pay and equipment them. Oil revenues can only cover so much.

RSF drones target convoys in Sudan's Kordofan region - Sudan Tribune February 8, 2026 (EL OBEID) – Rapid Support Forces (RSF) drones targeted commercial convoys and public transport in North and South Kordofan for a third consecutive day on Sunday, local sources and re...

The RSF's actions against civilian populations decreases its perception as a viable administrative option for #Sudan, resulting in increasingly open support for the SAF.

That said, the tolerance for brutality from the RSF's international financiers appears high.

Ukrainian ombudsman gets over 6,000 complaints against enlistment officers in 2025 — 333 times more than at all-out war's start The number of complaints has increased 333 times since the start of the full-scale invasion, according to Ukraine's Human Rights Ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets.

The work of the Ombudsman in #Ukraine is a positive sign that governance is strengthening. For Ukraine to defeat Russia it needs a strong economy, and for that government needs to be accountable and efficient.

Fortunately for Ukraine, it is a lesson Russia is yet to learn.

The #Myanmar Junta's cap on the price of gold will result in a surge of gold smuggling as traders benefit from the arbitrage.

Sensible economic policies will do more to stop the surge in gold than caps and threats.

Soldiers don't make good economists.

www.irrawaddy.com/business/mya...

The admission of responsibility by ISIS-Sahel for the airport attack in Niger undermines the narrative promoted by the juntas of the #Sahel of French complicity.

Such narratives matter to the juntas as they seek to justify seizure of French owned economic assets.

Whether this constitutes a crisis is not year clear.

That said, it certainly warrants close monitoring.

Belarus Economy Faces Stagnation and Risk of Decline in 2026 | Ukraine news - #Mezha Belarusian economy faces stagnation with risks of deeper decline amid worsening external conditions, warns Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.

Whilst #Belarus is not operating a war economy, its strong links with Russia mean it is suffering similar ails to a war economy. Labour tightening, fiscal scarcity and the risk of stagflation all loom.

To fix this, Minsk must stop enabling the Kremlin and encourage an end to the Russo-Ukraine War.

Putin has a major economic crisis now.

What he has coming is an additional fiscal crunch where he will have to decide what is the next economic sacrifice to place upon the alter of the Russo-Ukraine War.

Credit Bank of Moscow Posts Rare Loss as Bad Loans Surge - The Moscow Times A bank closely linked to oil major Rosneft has become the first among Russia’s top 10 lenders by assets to post a net loss, highlighting mounting strains in the country’s banking sector.

The reliance of state contracts in a war economy places the banking sector at risk from fiscal shortfalls, as is now occurring in #Russia.

This is fueling stagflation, as the economy loses its capacity to expand but war-driven inflationary pressures continue.

Moscow is running out of cash.

The perception of justice is critical for institutional justice to succeed. Justice that occurs in the dark is simply retribution.

Entirely normal.

War time leaders tend to make a mess of things during times of peace; entirely different skill set.

Why connectivity matters for Moldova's manufacturing sector Why connectivity matters for Moldova's manufacturing sector

#Moldova continues to to build economic structures that are independent of Moscow's patronage. This trend is critical for Moldova's long-term security, not least in enticing Transnistrian youth to rejoin with Moldova proper.

#Transnistria

Economic collapse in Yemen drive many towards cryptocurrency Yemen’s economic crisis, banking restrictions on money transfers, and growing digital financial literacy have fuelled the adoption of cryptocurrencies.

The rise in cryptocurrency in #Yemen is a direct result of poor fiscal and monetary management from both Aden and Saana.

This more lack of trust in government than trust in Bitcoin and its like.

How Aden protects Yemeni citizens who invest in crypto remains to be seen.

Ukraine's GDP grew 2.2% in 2025, economy ministry says "In 2025 (...) growth was supported by domestic trade, construction, (...) the production of defense products and metallurgy," Oleksiy Sobolev, Ukraine's economy minister, said in a press release.

GDP growth in #Ukraine must be taken with a grain of salt, as much is a result of reconstruction on the back of Russian strikes and EU funding.

That said, such activity signals willingness from the EU to invest heavily in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction.

Investors will be taking note.

It is Modi’s words that matter in this instance.

Essential goods reach Dilling as Sudan army breaks siege - Sudan Tribune January 30 2026 (DILLING) – Essential goods flowed into Dilling on Friday, the second-largest city in South Kordofan state, sparking an immediate and sharp drop in prices in local markets. The breakth...

The RSF's use of suffering of the civilian population in #Sudan as a weapon of war is a morally defunct yet occasionally effective tactic.

As a strategy it is a failure as it encourages open international support behind the SAF.

Fortunately for Dilling, the siege is over.

China executes online scam ringleaders from Myanmar - DVB China has executed 11 people involved in criminal gangs in Myanmar, including online scam ringleaders. Their crimes included “intentional homicide, intentional injury, unlawful detention, fraud and ca...

The rapid trial and execution of Chinese scam leaders may be problematic given information they have on the scam industry in general, and the network within #Myanmar in particular.

Whilst their connections with Naypyidaw are inconvenient for Beijing, this could have been managed.

Poland believes Russian intelligence hackers behind cyberattacks on country's energy facilities Poland's Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT Polska) believes that Russia's domestic intelligence service was likely responsible for cyberattacks on the country's energy infrastructure.

⚡ Poland believes Russian intelligence hackers behind cyberattacks on country's energy facilities

Myanmar junta continues airstrikes on scam centre seized by KNU Despite relentless attacks, the regime has been unable to retake the sprawling compound since it was captured from its DKBA allies more than two months ago

Despite relentless attacks, the regime has been unable to retake the sprawling compound since it was captured from its DKBA allies more than two months ago

Read more:
myanmar-now.org/en/news/myan...

Moldova’s industrial output up 4.5% y/y in 12 months to November Moldova’s industrial production index (chart) increased by 11.6% y/y in November 2025 and by 4.5% y/y over the 12 months to November, according to ...

Whilst industrial output in #Moldova is increasing, this is primarily a recovery from the sharp decline following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

This is positive news for Moldova, as it signals successful realignment of the economy away from dependency on Moscow's patronage.

Top Siberian pork producer eyes North Korea’s meat market | NK News One of Russia’s largest meat producers is planning to enter the North Korean market this year, amid the accelerating agricultural trade between the two countries, the Siberia-based company announced W...

The increase in protein consumed in #NorthKorea suggests an improving economy, riding high on Putin's misadventures.

The Russo-Ukraine War injected life into the economy despite Pyongyang's mismanagement, though economic assessments of the Hermit Kingdom are laden with caveats.

I rather suspect no money has changed hands.