ESM2025

More details:
👉 In our end-of-project news article: bit.ly/48hsZYg
👉 In our land CDR research highlight: bit.ly/4a2C7m0And

This spread is a form of uncertainty.

ESM2025 made it more explicit and traceable, rather than treating land-based mitigation as a fixed input.

That’s essential when these options are used in scenarios, carbon budgets and long-term planning.

The results don’t give a single “magic number” for how much AR/BECCS can deliver.

They show a range of responses across models and regions, and help identify which processes (for example, land–atmosphere interactions or background land state) drive those differences.

🌱 Land-based mitigation (afforestation, reforestation, BECCS) features prominently in many climate pathways.

ESM2025 looked at how current Earth System Models respond to large-scale land-based CDR, and what that means for climate.

#ESM2025isOver

Warming is accelerating. Tipping risks increasing. Net zero may not stop temperature rise.

‼️ Our joint policy brief outlines what new Earth System modelling means for EU climate policy.

👏 with @esm2025.bsky.social @optimesm-eu.bsky.social @tipesm.bsky.social #nextgems @rescueclimate.bsky.social

From Earth System Models to Integrated Assessment Models: Bridging the Gap in Climate Modelling The links between Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models (including the role of Simple Climate Models) that shape one of the main frameworks used for producing the data that feed IPCC assessments.

We’ll return to these education and policy aspects as we explore the scientific highlights in the coming weeks.

More details:
👉 In our end-of-project news article: : bit.ly/48hsZYg
👉 In our ESM-IAM research highlight: bit.ly/484yGZa

🤔Why does this matter?
It helps ensure that advances in climate modelling reach far beyond specialist circles — into classrooms, stakeholder spaces and policy contexts where they can inform real-world choices.

On the policy side:
➡️ science-to-policy briefings
➡️ contributions to relevant European discussions
➡️ work to make complex model results more accessible and decision-relevant

On the education side:
➡️ Researchers collaborated directly with teachers
➡️ Co-developed climate materials
➡️ Supported classroom activities and student projects
➡️ We've provide professional development in climate education for over 50 european teachers

Another of ESM2025 strengths was the way research connected with education and policy.

Not the only distinctive aspect of the project — but an important one for how results were shared and used.

#ESM2025isOver

🌍 Earth System Insights: from our Horizon Projects Briefing 6 European Horizon projects gathered their insights together for an in-depth forum with the European Commission (DG RTD & DG CLIMA). Here’s what they had to say 👇 🔗 bit.ly/4pgvktX #ClimateAction #EarthSystem #HorizonEU

From Earth System Models to Integrated Assessment Models: Bridging the Gap in Climate Modelling The links between Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models (including the role of Simple Climate Models) that shape one of the main frameworks used for producing the data that feed IPCC assessments.

🙏Thanks to all researchers working at this interface!
Your input shapes how climate information travels into assessments and policy processes.

More details:
👉 In our end-of-project news article: : bit.ly/48hsZYg
👉 In our ESM-IAM research highlight: bit.ly/484yGZa

ESM2025 didn’t solve all ESM–IAM integration challenges, but it helped normalise and strengthen this exchange within the European modelling community.

That work will hopefully continue in follow-up projects.✨

🤔 Why does this matter?
It supports more consistent links between physical climate responses and socio-economic scenarios — especially for:
➡️carbon budgets
➡️overshoot dynamics
➡️long-term mitigation planning

➡️+ focus on emission-driven experiments grounded in realistic pathways
➡️More explicit treatment of uncertainties across the modelling chain: from carbon-cycle response to CDR performance & temperature outcomes
➡️More iterative feedback between “what the Earth system allows” & “what pathways assume”

💬 One of ESM2025’s strengths was strengthening the dialogue between Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models — not from scratch, but in a more structured and practical way than before.

What changed in practice?👇🧵
#ESM2025isOver

...
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@scienceinnovation.ec.europa.eu
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#ClimateResearchNet

Poking our researchers and friends on bluesky!
@sandraarndt.bsky.social
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...

Huge thanks to all ESM2025 partners, researchers, educators, and stakeholders who made this possible! We're excited to share more highlights in the coming weeks.

Don’t miss our final news article and complete video for a full overview of what we've achieved together 👉 bit.ly/48hsZYg

Our models have made huge strides: from emission-driven simulations to new developments in every Earth system component (land, oceans, ice sheets, carbon). We've also strengthened connections between research communities and policy outreach.

Today, ESM2025 officially comes to an end!

Since 2021, our European consortium has been building a new generation of Earth System Models to support mitigation & adaptation strategies aligned with the Paris Agreement. Watch these clips of our final video to see how far we've come!
🧵👇

#ESM2025isOver

Find the full Research Highlight here: bit.ly/4qMYPEy

➡️A coordinated effort,linking ESMs,IAMs & land-use scenario protocols, would represent a logical & necessary next step.
Only through integrated efforts can land-based strategies become not just hopeful solutions,but robust & resilient pillars of long-term climate action
@euclimateaction.bsky.social

➡️This work has laid the groundwork for land-based enquiries in a dedicated Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP) in the next round of global MIPs.
@wcrpclimate.bsky.social

In many ways, this work only begins to scratch the surface of what is needed to robustly evaluate land-based CDR....

... and to end this #ESM2025research series of posts on our latest research highlight about land-based carbon dioxide removal, what's ahead?
🧵👇

Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in current carbon stocks are even larger than those related to how these stocks may respond to future climate change...

Want to know more?
👀Check out our latest research highlight on land-based carbon dioxide removal: bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research

🪾Large parts of the #Amazon face savanna-like dry seasons if deforestations levels reach 25%.

In the next #ClimTip webinar #JuliaPongratz @lmumuenchen.bsky.social talks about the state and future of the rainforest from the latest findings.

👉 Join on 2 Dec 2025 at 2–3pm CET
bit.ly/climtip-webi...

Or watch all @eerie-project.eu videos on their YouTube Channel

www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...

#ClimateResearchNet #ScienceHours

With @docaharper.bsky.social from @universityofga.bsky.social @exeter.ac.uk, Gabriel Abrahão, from @pik-potsdam.bsky.social and @rosieafisher.bsky.social, from @cicero.oslo.no

#CarbonBudget #Mitigation

...These “known unknowns” compound the risks associated with overreliance on land-based mitigation.

⚠️This leads to a broader warning: betting on a strong land sink is inherently risky — even if current stocks were to remain stable over time.

Why it matters 👉 bit.ly/4qMYPEy