Brian J. Phillips

As @sanho.bsky.social points out, the US has been doing counter-narcotics stuff in Ecuador for a long time. (I was there with the Marines in the Clinton years - yes I'm old.)

So it's hard to know if this is a real escalation, or just social media content creation.

Either way, multi-front war...

U.S. Opens Military Action in Ecuador Against ‘Terrorist Organizations’

💯 solid use of scare quotes www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/u...

CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say | CNN Politics The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran and the Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish lea...

Here we go again: “CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say”

www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/p...

Yes, this. It seems there's always war somewhere, but this current conflict is so extensive - missiles & drones hitting a dozen countries! - and the chance of escalation and diffusion is real.

100s of millions of people affected, and many more worried about family and friends.

To save time, let me tell you what is going to happen: War will continue a few days or a couple weeks. Then, fearing domestic impact of rising gas prices, increasing regional chaos and not having a plan for what's next, Trump will cut a deal with whoever's in charge in Tehran.

Reminder that The Cloud *does* have a physical infrastructure.

3 US troops killed, 5 seriously wounded in actions against Iran U.S. Central Command officials announced Sunday that three U.S. service members were killed in action during combat operations.

U.S. Central Command officials announced Sunday that three U.S. service members were killed in action during combat operations.

Argentina seeks arrest of Iranian minister over 1994 bombing The call for his arrest comes after an Argentine court blamed Iran for an attack on a Jewish centre.

The newly-appointed head of Iran's IRGC, Ahmad Vahidi, is wanted in Argentina for his role in the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center, which killed 85 people. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-l...

They’re becoming more common in the UK, especially the EVs seen as alternatives to Tesla, like BYD. Also Jaecoos.

The Trump admin has mostly added 3 types of groups to the Foreign Terrorist Organization list:

1. Latin American crime groups, e.g., Venezuelan
2. Iran-backed groups
3. European antifa/left groups

He's used the terrorist designations to justify

1. Maduro grab
2. Iran strike
3. ...?

At all three places where I taught, veterans and military students are admired for their service, their ability to get their academic work done quickly and extremely well, and for often balancing family and school.

Not *once* have I ever heard a faculty member disparage a military student.

Riyadh, Doha, Abu Dhabi— BBC is reporting all are experiencing explosions.

All three have significant US military bases.

U.S, Israel Strike Iran: Live Updates The attack brings war to the two countries for the second time in eight months and risks a wider regional conflict in one of the most economically sensitive parts of the world.

WSJ says US and Israel have attacked Iran www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

La narconómina de "El Mencho": esto ganaban pistoleros, "halcones" y "comandantes" del CJNG El control de sus gastos está detallado en diversas hojas hechas a mano o a computadora

Drug cartels - they have accountants, too! Recovered spreadsheets from the Cartel de Jalisco show its expenses, such as payments to staff and what seem to be bribes to particular governments and police officials. Data goldmine. www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/la-na...

via @umbluis.bsky.social

Pakistan warplanes bomb Kabul; Islamabad declares ‘open war’ on Afghanistan

Pakistan warplanes bomb Kabul; Islamabad declares ‘open war’ on Afghanistan https://aje.news/aozifo

Matt Goodwin discovers how elections work

Opinion | What the escape of at least 15,000 detainees means for ISIS The escapees fleeing al-Hol could create the next generation of Islamic State fighters.

This seems bad: "What the escape of at least 15,000 detainees means for ISIS" by @colinpclarke.bsky.social wapo.st/3OMW33L

9 Accused of Antifa Ties After a Violent ICE Protest Begin Trial in Texas

Important case to watch: "9 Accused of Antifa Ties After a Violent ICE Protest Begin Trial in Texas" www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/u...

Legally this is all quite questionable because there is no law to designate a domestic group a terrorist organization. (Noteworthy: one defendant is a former Marine.)

🚨 New piece forthcoming @poqjournal.bsky.social w/ @alessandronai.bsky.social

Does violence beget more violence? We answer this question using the #Mangione case (assassination + arrest) as a natural experiment.

Results ⬇️

Accepted manuscript: tinyurl.com/4mwh6rt6
Data & code: osf.io/y5mn3

"Poor Mexico: so far from God, so close to the United States." -Porfirio Díaz

Mort d'El Mencho : la "décapitation" des cartels de la drogue, stratégie à double tranchant La mort dimanche du puissant narcotrafiquant mexicain Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, peut être perçue comme une victoire pour le gouvernement de la présidente Claudia Sheinbaum et pour…

I (and some esteemed colleagues!) spoke with France 24 about El Mencho’s killing, and the implications www.france24.com/fr/am%C3%A9r... Bon soir!

Regarding US involvement, the White House said it provided intelligence support. Not surprising.

The Washington Post has a more vague suggestion about US "participation," via an anonymous source (see pic). We'll learn more in the coming days.

often try to move in on their territory. This happened with Zetas-Sinaloa, Sinaloa-CJNG, etc. Again unlike #1, this would suggest longer-term violence.

a group fragments, the newer, smaller groups are often too weak to traffic drugs internationally, so they get into easier things - kidnapping, extortion, etc. Eduardo Guerrero wrote about this as far back as 2011.
4. Rivals seizing the opportunity. If a group seems weakened (leader lost), rivals...

the group might break into factions, and those factions go to war over succession. This is why taking the top leader, and especially killing the top leader, can lead to serious violence. Unclear if we'll see this, but it would be longer-term than backlash.
3. Predatory violence. After...

There are several reasons arresting or killing a leader of a criminal group usually leads to more violence. In no order

1. Backlash. This is what we're seeing right now in Mexico, especially GDL. Common tactic is flaming roadblocks, "narcobloqueos."
2. Fragmentation. If top leader is lost...

This is big. The last kingpin. Of Mexico’s biggest cartel- CJNG. Many thought he was already dead. Now he is.

A graph showing homicides in Mexico by year, and # of crime group leaders arrested/killed by year, 2007-2023. Homicides go up over time and remain elevated, despite hundreds of leaders arrested or killed.

For context, I made this graph a few years ago (updating now…). Mexico has arrested hundreds of “leaders” or high-value cartel members. Violence remains higher than at the 2007 start of the drug war, although the past few years have fortunately shown progress. Anyway, El Mencho is a big one.

Yes! I had that in a previous post but ran out of words. Will be interesting to see. Direct involvement would be surprising, but it is possible. Info will leak out, like it did with arrest of El Mayo Zambada in 2024.

It took 20 years, and 4 Mexican presidents, but they finally got all the kingpins, the big cartel leaders. Zetas, Sinaloa, many smaller.

The idea was to not have huge cartels challenging the state. I guess, ✅. But the cost. The costs. And the plethora of remaining gangs. It’s not over.