FPA Journal

Title: Crisis at Home, Exit Abroad: Coups, Civil Wars, and Coalition Defection Abstract: Why do states prematurely withdraw from multinational military operations? While existing explanations emphasize domestic politics, coalition dynamics, and battlefield conditions, this article identifies leadership insecurity as a key driver of premature withdrawal from ongoing military coalitions. When coups or severe civil wars threaten incumbents' survival, leaders redirect finite military and political resources inward to bolster regime security, making sustained overseas deployments untenable. An analysis of coalition participation from 1950 to 2001 shows that states facing coups or intensified civil conflict are significantly more likely to defect from ongoing missions. The study contributes to the literature by centering leadership survival as a determinant of coalition reliability and by disaggregating coalition types to show how institutional design shapes the costs and feasibility of withdrawal. The findings carry important policy implications for anticipating defection risks and designing more resilient coalitions, especially outside consolidated democracies.

🚨New Article!🚨
Mehrabi (2026) theorises how leadership survival determines coalition reliability by observing how potential coups and civil conflicts lead states to prematurely withdraw from multinational military operations.
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Title: Unveiling Relational Power in Foreign Policy: Insights from China–Vietnam Relations Abstract: This article employs the relational power approach to explain the essence and dynamics of China–Vietnam relations. The bilateral relationship between these two neighboring communist states has remained relatively stable since their diplomatic normalization in 1991. Vietnam has regarded China as a top priority in its foreign policy, despite historical legacies and lingering territorial conflicts in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, China has, at times, tolerated Vietnam’s defiant and confrontational actions during conflicts. Notably, interactions between the two sides frequently restore swiftly following such conflicts. This phenomenon cannot be fully explained by existing hard and soft power theories. The relational power theoretical framework provides three main propositions for explaining China–Vietnam interactions, including prioritizing long-term stability over immediate and apparent material gains, balancing expectations to sustain stability, and a preemptive effect that constrains both sides’ actions. This approach provides a nuanced understanding of their enduring yet complex relationship.

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨
Nguyen (2026) explains how, despite a contentious history and context, Vietnam attaches importance to its bilateral relationship with China, using a relational power framework, providing three propositions to explain these interactions.
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Traditional Values in the International Realm: Why We Need More Dialogue between Anti-Gender Research and Foreign Policy Analysis Abstract. This research note argues for an increased dialogue between anti-gender politics research and feminist foreign policy analysis. Traditionally, co

Traditional Values in the International Realm: Why We Need More Dialogue between Anti-Gender Research and Foreign Policy Analysis
@fpajrnl.bsky.social
@openlybiased.bsky.social

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Happy to announce the 1st ever @isanet.bsky.social conference in South Asia in August 2026. Hosted in Colombo, Sri Lanka, we welcome proposals from scholars based in and/or studying South Asian politics & international relations, but also broader global themes ofc www.isanet.org/Conferences/...

Title: Coercive Origin of Banking Giants: Financial Sanctions as a Determinant of Bank Competition Abstract: Detrimental effects of monopolistic banks are evident in social welfare losses and selective law enforcement resulting from bureaucratic corruption. Despite its significance as a driver of socioeconomic reconfiguration, the economic sanctions literature to date has not addressed the impact of sanctions on bank competition, although it implies a potential correlation between the two. We argue that sanctions reduce bank competition in target states as large, efficient banks better survive and adopt aggressive merger and acquisition strategies to enhance productivity under sanctions. Political pressures are also imposed on foreign banks to leave the target economies, which further increases concentration in the targets’ banking industries. Examining an original sanctions dataset for 117 countries from 1996 to 2014, we find that financial sanctions significantly reduce bank competition in target economies. This research contributes by illuminating an external political intervention through which the competitive dynamics of banking industries are determined.

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨
Ha and Park (2026) develop theoretical explanations for how financial sanctions alter banking markets, showing they can induce greater market concentration in target economies.
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Article title: Supply Chain Dynamics and Disaster Relief: Evidence from Production Networks in East Asia. Abstract: This study argues that the scale of disaster relief aid provided by donor countries is significantly influenced by the extent to which natural disasters impact their supply chain trade (SCT). The core claim states that when disasters disrupt SCT, donor countries are motivated to provide substantial aid to facilitate the restoration of vital economic ties. Through a combination of quantitative analysis and comparative case study of Japan’s responses to disasters in Thailand and Vietnam, this study demonstrates that decisions to offer aid are not driven solely by humanitarian concerns but also by the strategic importance of maintaining economic flows. Furthermore, this analysis highlights the influence of corporate interest in SCT restoration on government policies, thereby explaining variations in aid patterns. This study provides a new perspective on the influence of economic interdependence on foreign aid behavior during times of crisis.

🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨
Fujita, Atarashi and Yukawa (2026) explain variation in disaster relief aid, arguing that states provide more aid to those crucial to corporate supply chain interests, drawing on emergency events and response datasets, and cases from East Asia.
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Abstract of article: Degrees of Rivalry: US Paradiplomacy and the Weaponization of Education Policy against Japan and China

🚨OUT NOW🚨
Musgrave (2026) explains why subnational governments use education policy for adversarial paradiplomacy, from San Francisco's treatment of Japanese students in the early 1900s to public opinion on Florida's restrictions on Chinese researchers.

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🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨
Valockova (2026) uses prospect theory to show how and when business elite perceptions influence state foreign economic hedging, drawing on Germany's economic policies towards China between 2014 and 2021.

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🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨

Wu (2025) shows that European populist radical right governments diverge in their China policies due to differences in transnational business ties and executive centralization, despite sharing similar ideological foundations.

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The FPA Editorial Team will take a break from December 22 to January 5 to recharge. Please allow for extended response times for our communications during this period.

3/3: It has been an honor and pleasure to edit the journal for these past five years. Thanks, Lisbeth Aggestam, Brian Lai, A. Burcu Bayram, Danielle Chubb, Stephen Nemeth, Andrea Oelsner, and Leslie Wehner​.

2/3: and Associate Editors: A. Burcu Bayram, Ryan Beasley, Scarlett Cornelissen, Benjamin Day, Melisa Deciancio, and Kei Koga.

1/3: Starting January 1, 2026, the new FPA editorial team will start its 5-year term. Co-Editor-in-Chiefs: Leslie Wehner, Sibel Oktay, Baris Kesgin

Urtuzuastigui, Bsisu, and Vernallis show that military sanctions tend to reduce refugee flows by constraining violence against civilians, while economic sanctions increase displacement by intensifying civilian exploitation.

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Lee (2025) shows that leadership approval in Japan rises when leaders take tougher stances toward more salient and threatening rivals, while policies toward lesser rivals have limited domestic political effects.

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🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨

Bias (2026) shows how states deploy “traditional values” as an anti-feminist foreign policy tool, urging closer dialogue between anti-gender research and foreign policy analysis.
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Risse (2025) shows that democracies consistently back conventional arms control but support nuclear arms control only when the initiatives are led by fellow democracies.
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Yang (2025) argues that U.S. political and military influence has a Janus-faced effect on protégés’ latent nuclear capabilities—first bolstering them for deterrence, then constraining further development as their programs advance.
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Girard and Wilhelm (2025) show that Americans turn against data localization policies when economic costs are emphasized, while sovereignty-based frames have little effect and ethnocentrism—not geopolitics—drives evaluations of related trade agreements.

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The UN is reinventing peacekeeping – Haiti is the testing ground A recent Security Council resolution to curb violence in Haiti was not just a local issue but a broader idea about how to stay relevant as a global organization.

The Conversation features a new piece by an FPA Editorial team member @ahmed-b.bsky.social on how the UN is reinventing peacekeeping, with Haiti as the testing ground. Please read it here: theconversation.com/the-un-is-re...

Asadzade (2025) shows that the April 2024 Iran–Israel confrontation heightened Iranians’ support for nuclear weapons, chiefly through intensified security and deterrence concerns rather than status-related motives.
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Lee (2025) shows that IO membership strengthens leader survival, with summit-holding IOs offering the greatest political protection.
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Pipoyan and Meibauer (2025) show that Armenia’s limited hedging toward Russia stemmed from systemic constraints and pragmatic elite ideas, producing selective bandwagoning and partial balancing.

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Imanishi (2025) shows that both the volume and diversity of media coverage shape U.S. bureaucratic responsiveness in complex emergency aid between 2000 and 2019.
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Visoka and Brajshori (2025) show that aspirant states like Kosovo use protean power—adaptability, innovation, and improvisation—to navigate barriers to recognition and gain partial legitimacy in international organizations. academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...

Wang and Xiang (2025) find that bilateral investment treaties boost foreign aid flows by compensating or enforcing compliance, with democracies favoring compensation and autocracies enforcement.
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🚨NEW ARTICLE🚨

Abu-Haltam (2025) shows that Jordan practices “indirect bandwagoning,” subtly aligning with U.S. interests by limiting China’s influence without open confrontation, illustrating how aid-dependent states navigate great power rivalry.

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Dörfler (2025) explains Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by showing how groupthink amplified loss-framed risk perceptions among Putin’s inner circle, making high-risk behavior more likely and frame reversal improbable.
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Choi (2025) finds that security alliances significantly reduce the likelihood of war, providing strong support for deterrence theory over the Steps-to-War perspective.
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Heimann and Kampf (2025) show that interpersonal diplomatic offenses such as degradation, unfriendliness, and marginalization disrupt relations between state representatives and call for their systematic study in IR.
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