Andy Langenkamp

Finland wants to lift nuclear weapons ban In Finland current legislation bans the import, manufacture, possession and detonation of nuclear weapons - even in the case of war.

2 Ukraine war successes for Russia: the border to Nato expanded by 1,340 km & now the flight time from Nato territory to St. Petersburg has potentially been reduced for ballistic missiles to 3-6 minutes & for hypersonic missiles to 1-2 minutes www.eurotopics.net/en/354301/fi...

Iran conflict: Corridor, Shock or Deal? My latest Global Political Analysis asks: can the coalition impose a viable end-state before Iran drives costs beyond tolerance? For Tehran, winning = survival, time & unacceptable pain; not battlefield victory. Full report: ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

Iran-conflict: Corridor, Shock of Deal? De oorlog is veel meer dan een regionale crisis – het is een stresstest voor wereldwijde energiemarkten, economie en geopolitieke orde. Mijn nieuwe analyse over de scenario’s en marktimpact:
ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

Iran Optimism May Prevail, But It’s Not Free Money If the selloff looks like an opportunity, it’s only because the risks are very real.

The Iran war might create an opportunity to buy, if not now then very soon. However, every so often the pessimists win. Most geopolitical shocks are transitory — but on occasion, there’s a Sarajevo assassination www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Daniel Franklin of @economist.com: Trump has no interest in maintaining the status quo: he wants more for America. Disregarding the rule of law is not a casualty; it is a central part of his approach, as are displays of American might

Opinion | The Iran War Is Trump’s War

For Trump, success now requires some version, however unique to the Iranian situation, of the Venezuelan endgame, in which a somewhat friendlier regime holds power and conducts negotiations and keeps the lid on chaos www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/o...

The Iran war is rapidly engulfing the region How far could each side escalate?

In 2009, US diplomats estimated that a successful attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail plant would force the kingdom to evacuate its capital within a week. SArabia has built more capacity since then, but desalination plants are highly vulnerable to missiles www.economist.com/middle-east-...

Iran’s Weakening Is Turkey’s Opportunity — and Its Trap The American and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 have altered the regional balance in ways that extend far beyond Tehran.

Turkey will be central to the emerging order: in regional security architecture, corridor politics linking Asia to Europe, in refugee management for Europe, shaping Muslim public opinion & as interlocutor between the US and a more unstable MENA moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/03/03/i...

Iran’s Weakening Is Turkey’s Opportunity — and Its Trap The American and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 have altered the regional balance in ways that extend far beyond Tehran.

As Iran’s ability to project power through Iraq, Syria & the Levant is degraded, Turkey becomes - by geography, force posture, NATO - the most capable non-Arab Muslim power adjacent to multiple theaters: the Levant, Caucasus, Black Sea, Gulf & North Africa moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/03/03/i...

Epic Fury meets Roaring Lion - Amerika en Israël duwen de escalatieladder ruw om. Het Iraanse regime is onthoofd, de Straat van Hormuz is feitelijk gesloten, raketten vliegen over & weer vliegen. Ligt een slopende regionale oorlog op de loer? lnkd.in/eBeaNvcX

Epic Fury meets Roaring Lion: the escalation ladder is shaking. Khamenei is dead, missiles are flying, oil prices are spiking. Quick win or forever war? My latest ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

Triple T - This week's newsletter: Tariffs, Trust, Tehran

•Overexposed: Global Trade War 2.0

•Underexposed: The Trust Implosion caused by the Epstein files

•Spot on: Trump’s calibrated Iran squeeze

ecrresearch.com/global-polit...

Trump used his State of the Union to highlight Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reinforce U.S. red lines — diplomacy and deterrence now run in parallel. But rhetoric isn’t destiny. My latest analysis maps out escalation probabilities and macro consequences ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

US military deployment in the Middle East is at its highest level since 2003. Does that make a strike on Iran inevitable? Not necessarily. In my latest Global Political Analysis, I assess escalation probabilities, regime stability & market implications ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

The Trust Trap What do Jeff Bezos, Bari Weiss, and RFK Jr. have in common?

U.S. data centers alone are projected to exceed the energy consumption of all of Japan by 2030 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-trust-...

Britain’s predicament will get worse before it gets better With Sir Keir Starmer weakened, the government will drift left

A prime minister who clings on to power by handing out treats is not running a government but an ice-cream van. Bond investors may lose patience with the UK www.economist.com/leaders/2026...

Britain’s predicament will get worse before it gets better With Sir Keir Starmer weakened, the government will drift left

With or without Sir Keir, Labour will retreat to its soft-left comfort zone, and muddle along the path of electoral least resistance. Party unity will trump boldness. For Britain, things will get worse before they get better www.economist.com/leaders/2026...

Iran hype vs. real off-ramps. Trump's alliance "disruptions" mask deep continuity. Ukraine: slow, bloody stalemate. Quick geopolitical radar out now – Overexposed, Underexposed, Spot-On. Dive in: ecrresearch.com/global-polit... What’s your take? #Geopolitics #TrumpForeignPolicy

Why poor countries stopped catching up The rise and fall of the Great Convergence

The Great Convergence was simply the product of the Chinese commodities boom, and little more than that davidoks.blog/p/why-poor-c...

Der China-Schock How will Merz respond?

Germany's China shock captured in a handful of graphs nbarkin.substack.com/p/germanys-c...

Trump Follows in Rebuild of Global Trading Order He’s Dismantling Trump has only concluded five trade deals, with a dozen others remaining mere frameworks

Trump led the destruction of the global order and, perhaps because of exactly that, it sure looks like he is now left following the lead of others when it comes to the reconstruction. Or, at the very least that he is losing control over what comes next www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

The Takaichi Era begins for real Japan is leaving its pacifist era behind. That creates some interesting economic opportunities.

The LDP simply does what any rational ruling party should do in a functioning democracy — it gives the people what they want. The people respond by usually sticking with the known quantity, as long as it keeps being responsive. This is perfectly democratic www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-takaic...

The age of Takaichi dawns Understanding what happened on Sunday

With more than two years until the next upper house election and at most four years until the next general election, Takaichi will have time and the political space to act observingjapan.substack.com/p/the-age-of...

How the US Midterms Reshape Risk, Markets & Power. My latest Global Political Analysis for ECR Research ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

How Solar Beat Coal, Gas, and Nuclear Combined In 2025, the energy landscape hit a historic inflection point. Solar now attracts ~$500B in investments each year, more capital than all other electricity sources combined. What happened?

Solar now attracts $500B in investments each year, more capital than all other electricity sources combined. Last year, the world installed more new solar generation than coal, gas, nuclear, wind & hydro put together chamath.substack.com/p/solar-deep...

Is Trump about to strike Iran (again)? Iran is not in the Western Hemisphere. It’s not a vital US security interest, and most Americans don't especially care about what happens in the Middle East.

For those still insisting Trump is Vladimir Putin's puppet: a Russian asset wouldn't have ousted Maduro – bad for Moscow – and wouldn't be threatening Tehran with regime change. Trump is willing to cross Moscow and Beijing when it suits him www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremm...

Behind China’s race to build aircraft-carriers It will soon have more carriers in the Pacific than America

It is becoming clearer that China aspires to be top gun far beyond its shores www.economist.com/china/2026/0...

The Recovery You Don’t Feel Is Real The surprising pickup in US manufacturing in January shows how the views of executives and consumers are diverging.

The people on the top bar of the K are helping to drive a cyclical rebound with the profits they have made. The equity tail may be wagging the equity dog www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Where will the US threats against Iran lead? After the US deployed the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and other warships to the Middle East last week, it remains unclear whether there will be an attack on Iran.

Tehran is nothing like Caracas - too far away, too foreign, too hostile, probably much more of a challenge even for elite special forces. The Iranian capital is 500 kilometres from the nearest area accessible to Americans in Iraq www.eurotopics.net/en/352234/wh...

Why Taco is a problem for Europe The continent needs a sense of crisis in order to change, and Donald Trump keeps it just short of that

In the absence of the most extreme pressure, Europe’s rich old democracies are inert things. The wolf has to be at the door. It is not enough to hear the occasional growl from afar www.ft.com/content/ebac...