Andy Langenkamp

France loses another prime minister. The Middle East waits for Hamas's next move. Plus: Your new GLOBAL EYES blog

@claireberlinski.bsky.social "Modern democracies are suffering both weakness, in their inability to respond to genuine threats..& overreaction, in the hysteria & panic that follows every social media outrage..." Aren't you falling prey to the latter? claireberlinski.substack.com/p/france-los...

France loses another prime minister. The Middle East waits for Hamas's next move. Plus: Your new GLOBAL EYES blog

For years, LeCornu had perfected the art of being an agreeable cipher; journalists noted that he had the personality of a well-pressed napkin. Then came Bayrou’s implosion, and Macron, looking for ballast, mistook dead weight for stability claireberlinski.substack.com/p/france-los...

The 3 ingredients of the global debt crisis: very high global debt levels; budget deficits all over the place remain exceptionally wide; idiosyncratic trouble spots that periodically blow up, causing contagion. Yesterday was all about the last point

Britain accounts for 40% of phone thefts in Europe, writes @economist.com. How, why?

As France Faces Political Turmoil, Macron Is Backed Into a Corner

My take: While France's fiscal slippage (113.9% debt-to-GDP, deficits up to 6.1% in 2025) rattles markets, its diversified economy, ECB agility, and isolated political deadlock reduce broader risks ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

As France Faces Political Turmoil, Macron Is Backed Into a Corner

Macron can 1) dissolve Parliament, which is likely to lead great succes for Le Pen's RN in the ensuing vote 2) do what he's resisted & ask a center-left politician to form a govt 3) opt for more of the same, hoping for the miracle of a different result www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/w...

Israel at War With Itself

For Palestinians, a statehood that more countries have recognized of late remains a remote aspiration, at best. That is the immovable issue at the heart of war after war www.nytimes.com/2025/10/05/w...

Macron verslijt premiers alsof het croissants zijn, maar op deze manier van politiek bedrijven komt geen brood op de Franse hervormingsplank. Welke scenario's zijn het meest waarschijnlijk voor Frankrijk en voor de besmettingsrisico's voor de Eurozone? ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

French crisis deepens - The euro dipped and French bond yields climbed as Lecornu’s exit deepens France’s crisis. Is a Eurozone-wide fallout becoming more likely? ecrresearch.com/research/glo...

Drones, Democracy and the War in Ukraine

The new economics of war: Drones worth hundreds or thousands of dollars must be shot down by missiles that cost millions to protect tanks and ships that cost even more www.nytimes.com/2025/10/05/w...

It’s the Internet, Stupid What caused the global populist wave? Blame the screens.

@frankfukuyama.bsky.social: It is only the rise of the internet that can explain how we can be in an existential struggle for liberal democracy, at a time in history when liberal democracy has never been as successful www.persuasion.community/p/its-the-in...

The Price of Unpredictability Trump’s foreign policy is ruining American credibility.

The next U.S. president, no matter their approach, will inherit allies who flatter but also hedge, adversaries who test and wait, and a system in which the United States’ word simply carries less weight than it once did www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The Price of Unpredictability Trump’s foreign policy is ruining American credibility.

Trump proposes deals before backing down. He promises to end wars before expanding them. He berates U.S. allies and embraces adversaries. With Trump, the only pattern is the lack of one www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Juist, onder- & overbelicht: Handelsoorlog, Essentiële Slagaders & Dedollarisering. Naast de Global Political Analysis is er nu de eerste editie van The Big Political Three: de drie politieke risico’s die markten écht bewegen (of niet...) ecrresearch.com/big-politica...

On Point. Overlooked. Overhyped.

This week: Trade War, Essential Arteries & De-dollarization.

The first edition of The Big Political Three is out — your weekly lens on the geopolitical & geo-economic forces shaping markets ecrresearch.com/big-politica...

The U.S. proposes a plan for peace in Gaza. Plus, how would Tangle have covered 1930s Germany?

For now: A glimmer of hope, and major kudos to the Trump administration for landing on a more thoughtful, in some ways novel, and genuinely practical proposal worthy of both Israel and Hamas getting on board www.readtangle.com/hamas-israel...

Who’s Afraid of Tariffs? Investors, Especially in “Red” America Huijun Yan and Randall Morck have a sharp new NBER working paper out: “Who’s Afraid of Tariffs?

Protectionist policies can deliver private gains to the best-lobbied incumbents, but the general equilibrium (especially under a capricious formula) erodes expectations, swells risk premia and torpedoes the very regions it purports to champion www.theunseenandtheunsaid.com/p/whos-afrai...

A world with two predatory superpowers Nations must work out how to contend with Trump’s America and China

It is impossible for the rest of the world to ignore the two predatory superpowers, since together they generate 43 per cent of global GDP at market prices (and 34 per cent at purchasing power parity) www.ft.com/content/f836...

Ripped off by the rest of the world, as Trump claims? Hardly. www.ft.com/content/f836...

Blijft bijzonder: slechts een greep uit 1 dag Amerikaans nieuws (ophef en/of onzekerheid over Pentagon, FBI, Fed en importheffingen), maar vooralsnog stomen aandelen en de Amerikaanse economie rustig door @TheEconomist

U.S. Government Shutdown: will No. 14 Be Different? icc-consultants.nl/nl/us-govern...

U.S. Government Shutdown - Why No. 14 Is Different. As of today, the U.S. government doors are closed. There are two key differences from previous shutdowns, potentially with significant consequences for financial markets ecrresearch.com/ecr-extra-up... #shutdown #USPolitics

Are Democrats Doomed to Lose the Shutdown? Congressional leaders aren’t built to win public opinion.

Democrats face a fundamental problem as they close the government. The goal of the shutdown exists in tension with the goals of their congressional leaders. The base wants to win public opinion while congressional leaders want to avoid defections in their ranks joshhuder.substack.com/p/are-democr...

This time it will/won't be different Pre-register your shutdown predictions so you don't spin yourself silly next month

t this point, the incentive for all of the leaders is to have the government shutdown mattglassman.substack.com/p/this-time-...

Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel backs Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza Proposal calls for an immediate end to the conflict and the release of all remaining hostages

"an international supervisory body to provide oversight of a Palestinian committee that would administer Gaza" vs "Israel would maintain overall security control of the strip & freedom of operations inside the territory" How would this work? www.ft.com/content/98a0...

Sliding Towards Totalitarianism The Party’s Ambitions and Reach Continues to Grow

Under Jensen Huang’s worldview, if you are critical of the PRC and don’t want the Chinese Communist Party to amass more power and influence in the world, then you are at best ignorant and at worst, shameful chinaarticles.substack.com/p/sliding-to...

Trump’s New Shift on Ukraine Leaves Europe Feeling on the Hook As Ukraine and its allies absorbed the surprise from Donald Trump’s newly upbeat view of Kyiv’s prospects in its war against Russia’s invasion, there were signs of a familiar move by the US president ...

Europeans sense that Trump is pushing the responsibility for ending the Ukraine war to them rather than upping the pressure on President Vladimir Putin www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

What Do China's Demographic Trends Mean for Its Future? China has one of the world's lowest fertility rates and is experiencing one of the fastest transitions to an aged society. The impending reduction in labor force size and increase in old age dependenc...

China has the 2nd-lowest fertility rate in the world. Its old age dependency ratio (those ages 65 & older relative to the working age population) will more than double from 0.21 in 2024 to 0.52 by 2050, increasing social support pressures www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

China Plans, America Reacts Project Syndicate: September 25, 2025

In China, industrial policy is a logical extension of long-term goal setting. US industrial policy is reactive – addressing other countries’ supposedly unfair competitive practices in sectors that American politicians judge to be of paramount importance stephenroach.substack.com/p/china-plan...

Volgens Trump is Europa ten dode opgeschreven door suïcidale ideeën over immigratie, energie en klimaat. Bewijzen Europeanen het tegendeel of ontstaat een Europese negatieve spiraal, aangewakkerd door Russische agressie, Trumps protectionisme en China’s opmars? ecrresearch.com/research/glo...