@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Economics Professor at UC Berkeley; from #Ukraine
Please submit your papers to the series!
#EconSky #UkrainianView #Ukraine
Chart showing the cost of Russian aggression as projections as of April 2022 for various countries as absolute losses and percent losses. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine marked an end to stability in Europe. This column analyses the economic effects for Ukraine, Russia, as well as spillovers on other countries, using professional forecast data from 29 nations. Forecasters predicted that the war would be highly stagflationary for Ukraine and Russia, lowering GDP and increasing the price level. The rest of Eastern Europe was expected to experience similar, but smaller, effects from the invasion. The estimates suggest the cost of the war is close to $2.4 trillion, but even this projection likely understates the full scale of economic harm.
Forecasts of the cost of the war in #Ukraine pointed to stagflation for Ukraine and Russia, as well as similar but smaller effects in the rest of Eastern Europe. The total cost of the war is estimated to be $2.4 trillion.
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, V Vasudevan
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Very important!
25.07.2025 16:59 โ ๐ 9 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0This is pretty credible
23.07.2025 14:55 โ ๐ 2 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0KQED Forum on #Ukraine's reconstruction
The story about rebuilding #Irpin (including the role of the SF Bay Area) is most inspiring
#UkrainianView
www.kqed.org/forum/201010...
THU at 9AM:
BBC reporter Zhanna Bezpiatchuk, Center for Innovation's Margie O'Driscoll, Stantec's Eugene Chumakov & UC Berkeley professor @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social on the challenges Ukraine faces as it seeks to rebuild while still at war.
โ What Qs do you have about reconstruction in Ukraine?
Graph of net-migration outflows after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Hurricane Maria (as a percent of pre-shock population) Although the source and duration of the destruction differ, wars and natural disasters disrupt economies in similar ways. This column examines the effects of natural disasters and the impact of government rebuilding policies by focusing on the impacts of Hurricane Maria, which struck Puerto Rico in 2017. The findings underscore how the scale and design of post-disaster assistance shape both reconstruction and return migration.
Although the source and duration of the destruction differ, wars and natural disasters disrupt economies in similar ways. Shifrah Aron-Dine uses evidence from the impacts of Hurricane Maria to develop rebuilding policies applicable for #Ukraine.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
The single biggest source of oil tankers for Putin's shadow fleet is Greece (blue). That's an opportunity for the EU to grow, not sweep this under the rug. A proper investigation is needed to uncover how this happened. That'll strengthen the EU, not weaken it. @econharris.bsky.social @brookings.edu
15.07.2025 11:11 โ ๐ 59 ๐ 17 ๐ฌ 5 ๐ 3
Local optimum: do not touch Russian money
Global optimum: seize Russian money & transfer it to #Ukraine
#UkrainianView
RE Trump's talk to impose sanctions on countries importing Russian oil/gas:
The Hall of Shame is public knowledge: China, India, Turkey, Singapore, Egypt, Brazil.
#UkrainianView
Walther Funk, Schacht's successor, was tried at the Nuremberg Trials for his role as Minister of Economics and President of the Reichsbank.
He was found guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity, and sentenced to life imprisonment.
Funk was "extraordinarily musical"
Trump has yet to name his pick to replace Powell, but whomever he chooses will have to overcome doubts that they are setting interest rates free of influence from the White House or risk eroding the institutionโs credibility www.nytimes.com/2025/07/10/b... @nytimes.com @darioperkins.bsky.social
10.07.2025 16:49 โ ๐ 30 ๐ 10 ๐ฌ 5 ๐ 5
Vincenzo De Luca, the head of the Campania region, defended the decision to engage Gergiev: the invitation showed that โdialogue between people can grow & the values of human solidarity can develop.โ
Mr. De Luca should travel to #Ukraine to see what Putin's friends do
#UkrainianView
Many interesting chapters + there is one on #Ukraine
#UkrainianView
On July 4th, no less.
Putin is humiliating Trump.
In the last couple of weeks, every combined attack (air- & sea-launched cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, large drones, and decoys), has been bigger than the previous ones.
Today - 539 missiles/drones overnight.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/04/w...
Trump's call to Putin certainly worked. Sarcasm
03.07.2025 23:48 โ ๐ 9 ๐ 2 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Terrific piece!
03.07.2025 18:04 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
How much money does Ukraine need?
By @martinsandbu.ft.com
The least expensive policy by far is to give the country enough now to win the war
www.ft.com/content/4835...
Chapter 28 brings together Tom Enders, Jeannette zu Fรผrstenberg, Renรฉ Obermann, & @schularick.bsky.social and their perspectives from industry, technology and economics to outline priorities for a German and European #defence policy strategy for the coming decades.
cepr.org/publications...
#EconSky
This ages well...
Trump: โ[Putin] is not going into Ukraine, OK, just so you understand. Heโs not going to go into #Ukraine, all right? You can mark it down. You can put it down. You can take it anywhere you want.โ
#UkrainianView
Macron&Merz:
"We have condemned&sanctioned Russia. There is more to come. We'll increase our support to the Ukrainian army. We'll invest collectively in UKR def industry. [With UK], we'll ensure that UKRโs future military is large enough and equipped to deter any new invasion."
#UkrainianView
Ken Rogoff gave the academic keynote "Will the Dollarโs Loss be the Euroโs Gain?"
Hi lecture starts at 1H 50M
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHB-...
Christine Lagarde ( #ECB) gave a keynote in person.
"It is an honour to be here in Kyiv โ a city that has come to symbolise resilience, dignity and the enduring spirit of freedom. Kyiv [is] a beacon of what it means to hold fast to democratic values in the face of immense challenge."
The program is here: events.bank.gov.ua/ARConference...
20.06.2025 14:44 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 0
Andrew Bailey (governor of the Bank of England) came to #Kyiv to give a lecture at #NBU research conference: "I am quite simply in awe of what Ukraine confronts as a nation, what you face as a central bank, & how you have conducted yourselves during these most difficult of times."
#UkrainianView
1,000,000
The combat losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022 to June 12, 2025.
Truly an awful attack on my native Kharkiv. Civilian homes and apartment buildings.
Beyond disgraceful.
Russia is a terror state.
@econ4ua.bsky.social is sharing a new article from co-founder @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, with @torbjornbecker.bsky.social and Barry Eichengreen. If Western aid declines, how can Ukraine sustain its economy and war effort? This โPlan Bโ outlines macroeconomic strategiesโand why Europe must act.
06.06.2025 17:41 โ ๐ 4 ๐ 3 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
