Irish Polling Indicator

State of the parties Kevin Cunningham, Lecturer in Politics at TU Dublin and Founder of Ireland Thinks and Stefan Müller, Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at UCD.

📻 @kevcunningham.bsky.social and I talked about the state of the parties, public opinion, and the nature of Irish by-elections with @mcculld.bsky.social on @rteradio1.bsky.social this morning.

➡️ www.rte.ie/radio/radio1...

Latest Irish Polling Indicator Estimates (5 February 2026): SF: 22.5% [21–24] FF: 18% [17–19] FG: 18% [17–19] Ind/Oth: 13.5% [12–14.5] SD: 8.5% [8–9.5] AÚ: 4.5% [4–5.5] II: 4.5% [4–5.5] LAB: 4% [3.5–5] GP: 3% [2.5–3.5] SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]

Difference between first-preference vote share at the 2024 General Election and current polling estimates.

The latest aggregated @irishpollingind.bsky.social estimates:

SF: 22.5% [21–24]
FF: 18% [17–19]
FG: 18% [17–19]
Ind/Oth: 13.5% [12–14.5]
SD: 8.5% [8–9.5]
AÚ: 4.5% [4–5.5]
II: 4.5% [4–5.5]
LAB: 4% [3.5–5]
GP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]

▶️ pollingindicator.com

The Irish Times print edition, 2 February 2026

From such examples, one might conclude that relatively trivial factors are having an exaggerated impact on politics, and that social media is accelerating this change. But is it that simple? "What we definitely observe is this personalisation of politics," says Stefan Müller, associate professor in politics and international relations at University College Dublin, but establishing cause and effect is more complicated. Müller, who specialises in using large data sets to examine political activity, is the joint author of a magnificently titled study, Evidence for the Irrelevance of Irrelevant Events. It looks at the question of whether "irrelevant events" outside politicians' control, like sports results or natural disasters, affect voting behaviour.

The short answer is no, despite an "influential strand" of US research suggesting otherwise. Müller and TCD academic Liam Kneafsey took a novel two-pronged approach, first, mapping GAA results with constituency voting patterns since Irish independence and, then, taking a deep-dive into recent opinion polls. They found no evidence that sports results - or any change in mood they might generate in a community - affected Irish voting behaviour. "We believe our findings challenge previous arguments that voters are simply irrational and influenced by irrelevancies," they say.

Turning to the Kanturk example, Müller says "there has been some commentary that this really influenced the campaign but if you look at the polling ... Fine Gael were already losing support before the Kanturk incident. So it might have contributed to it but was it the only cause? Maybe it has changed some people's view of Simon Harris; that could be the case". Minor events "can at least change the narrative of the campaign", he says, and there's a bandwagon effect where people tend to mirror the prejudices or preferences of their peers. If a politician gets a negative image in the public sphere - whether it's deserved or not - it can be difficult to shake off.

Joe Humphreys covers our research on election campaigns, candidates, and voting behaviour in today’s Irish Times.

📰 www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2026...

@irishtimes.com

The chapter with @gailmcelroy.bsky.social analyses issue salience and positions.

Housing and health were among the most salient issues for nearly all parties. Interestingly, immigration barely featured in the manifestos.

Chapter: hdl.handle.net/10197/29172
Book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Latest Irish Polling Indicator estimates – 30 Nov 2025: Sinn Féin: 23% (21.5%–25%) Fianna Fáil: 18.5% (17%–19.5%) Fine Gael: 17.5% (16%–19%) Ind/Others 14.5% (12.5%–16%) Social Democrats: 7.5% (6.5%–9%) Aontú: 5% (4%–6.5%) Labour: 4.5% (4%–5.5%) Independent Ireland: 4% (3%–5%) Solidarity-PBP: 2.5% (2%–3.5%) Green Party: 2.5% (2%–3%)

Latest estimates:

Sinn Féin: 23% (21.5%–25%)
Fianna Fáil: 18.5% (17%–19.5%)
Fine Gael: 17.5% (16%–19%)
Ind/Others 14.5% (12.5%–16%)
Social Democrats: 7.5% (6.5%–9%)
Aontú: 5% (4%–6.5%)
Labour: 4.5% (4%–5.5%)
Independent Ireland: 4% (3%–5%)
Solidarity-PBP: 2.5% (2%–3.5%)
Green Party: 2.5% (2%–3%)

Copies of “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?”

“How Ireland Voted”: 1987–2020

Exactly one year to the day after the general election, “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?” is now available in bookshops.

➡️ link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election.

@kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations.

➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...

Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5) Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5) Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20) Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15) Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5) Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5) Aontú: 4% (3–5) II: 3.5% (3–4.5) SPBP: 2.5% (2–3) GP: 2.5% (2–2.5) https://pollingindicator.com

House Effects

Updated aggregated estimates:

Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5)
Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5)
Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20)
Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15)
Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5)
Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5)
Aontú: 4% (3–5)
II: 3.5% (3–4.5)
SPBP: 2.5% (2–3)
GP: 2.5% (2–2.5)

➡️ pollingindicator.com

Percentage point differences between current estimates and first-preference vote intention in the 2024 general election. The blog post summarises and interprets these results.

New blog post on party support, seven months after the general election: pollingindicator.com/blog/update-...

SF: 21.5% [20–23]
FF: 20.5% [19–21.5]
FG: 18% [16.5–19.5]
Ind/Oth: 15% [13.5–17]
SD: 7.5% [6.5–8.5]
LAB: 5% [4–5.5]
II: 4% [3–5]
AÚ: 3.5% [3–4.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
GP: 2.5% [2–3]

Slide showing statistics on party affiliation and levels of volatility.

The GE 2024 Election Study Data are released this morning.

Rory Costello shows that only one-third of respondents feel close to a party, and over 30% reported having voted for a different party in 2020.

Confirms that volatility and party affiliation differ from the typical European country.

Gail and I wrote a chapter on issue salience and party positions.

The most streamlined project I’ve worked on – thanks to the editors’ clear instructions and tight deadlines.

1️⃣ Election: 29 Nov 2024
2️⃣ First drafts due just two months (!) after election day
3️⃣ Final version due 5 March 2025

Graph showing most recent Irish Polling Indicator estimates: SF: 24% [22.5–25.5] FF: 22% [21–23] FG: 18.5% [17.5–20] Ind/Oth: 11.5% [10–13] SD: 7% [6.5–8] LAB: 4% [3.5–4.5] II: 3.5% [3–4.5] AÚ: 3.5% [2.5–4.5] SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5] GP: 2.5% [2.5–3]

The latest Irish Polling Indicator estimates, five months after the General Election:

SF: 24% [22.5–25.5]
FF: 22% [21–23]
FG: 18.5% [17.5–20]
Ind/Oth: 11.5% [10–13]
SD: 7% [6.5–8]
LAB: 4% [3.5–4.5]
II: 3.5% [3–4.5]
AÚ: 3.5% [2.5–4.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
GP: 2.5% [2.5–3]

➡️ pollingindicator.com

Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil see bounce in support after meeting with Donald Trump, new Sunday Independent poll shows Fianna Fáil has seen a bounce in support after Taoiseach Micheál Martin endured a tense exchange with US President Donald Trump in advance of the tariffs war, the latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thi...

POLL: Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks
(April 3-4, MoE 2.2%)

Fianna Fáil 25 (+3 in five weeks)
Fine Gael 21 (-1)
Sinn Féin 21
Social Democrats 8 (+1)
Aontú 4 (+1)
Ind Ireland 4 (-1)
Labour 4
PBP-Solidarity 3 (+1)
Greens 2
Inds/others 9 (-2)

www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...

Red C Poll: Fine Gael slumps to lowest level of support with party five points behind Fianna Fáil Simon Harris now finds his party one point below its previous lowest level of support in September 2022

Red C Poll: Fine Gael slumps to lowest level of support with party five points behind Fianna Fáil

This graph compares first-preference vote shares in the 2024 General Election with the Irish Polling Indicator estimates released the day before the election. On average, the election results deviated by less than 0.6 percentage points from the Polling Indicator estimate. With the exception of the Green Party and Solidarity-PBP, the Irish Polling Indicator estimates were within the margin of error.

To assess the accuracy of polls more systematically, we can calculate the vote-poll error. If the election result matches the polls exactly, the vote-poll error is zero. For example, a vote-poll error of 1 would mean that, on average, the polls were off by one percentage point from the election results across all parties and Independents. The figure below shows polling errors for Irish general elections from 1989 to 2024. Across these nine elections, the estimates were off by 1.23 percentage points from actual first-preference vote shares. This vote-poll error is considerably better than the errors observed in a comparative study of over 30,000 opinion polls from 350 elections in 45 countries. The Irish Polling Indicator achieved a vote-poll error of 0.54 in the 2024 General Election, its most accurate result yet.

We have added a new section on the accuracy (vote-poll error) of the Irish Polling Indicator estimates in all elections since 1987: pollingindicator.com#validation

Summary of changes: pollingindicator.com/blog/update-...

Thanks to @tomlouwerse.nl for help with updating the interactive graphs.

Most recent Irish Polling Indicator estimates: SF: 22.5% [20–24.5] FF: 22% [21–23.5] FG: 20.5% [18.5–22] Ind/Oth: 10% [8–12] SD: 7.5% [6–9] LAB: 4% [3–5] AÚ: 4% [3.5–5] II: 4% [3.5–5] GP: 3% [2–3.5] SPBP: 2.5% [2–3.5]

The @irishpollingind.bsky.social website has been updated:

– Revisions of all interactive graphs
– Details on accuracy in previous elections
– New datasets @harvarddataverse.bsky.social: daily estimates (1987–2024) and poll results (1983–2024): doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

➡️ pollingindicator.com

Red C Poll analysis: No honeymoon for government as voters show buyer’s remorse The poor housing completion figures for last year came soon afterwards, providing no reprieve in pressure on the new government.

Red C Poll analysis: No honeymoon for government as voters show buyer’s remorse

Salience of policy areas in manifestos. Coloured dots represent the emphasis placed on each issue in the nine party manifestos. The grey dot below each policy area indicates the average emphasis across all manifestos, while the error bars show the range of ± one standard deviation around the average.

A large part of the Irish political science community is using this rainy weekend to finalise their chapter revisions for “How Ireland Voted 2024” (deadline: Monday).

Sneak preview of my chapter with Gail McElroy below. We validate and apply transformer models to measure salience and positions.

Stefan Müller during the award ceremony

Honoured to be Highly Commended in the Early Career Researcher of the Year (IRC Legacy) Awards 2024.

Thank you to @researchireland.bsky.social for hosting a memorable awards ceremony, and huge congrats to all winners – truly impressive research!

@ucddublin.bsky.social
www.ucd.ie/newsandopini...

The polls have almost nailed it. On average, @irishpollingind.bsky.social was only 0.54 points away from election result (max: 0.85). Spot on for FF and FG.

Irish pollsters are better than their reputation, and online polls are not worse than face-to-face surveys.
pollingindicator.com#validation

Stefan Meuller

Stefan Mulher

Really enjoyed covering the campaign and election for @news.rte.ie and international outlets – ready for a break now.

A few times, the media got quite creative with my name.
Someone recommended: "just say 'Müller like the yoghurt'"😄

+1
Superb job by the pollsters and thanks a lot to all involved with @irishpollingind.bsky.social, which provides invaluable public service.

Credit to the Irish pollsters for absolutely nailing #GE24

FF: 21.5% (polls) vs 21.9% (result)
FG: 21% vs 20.8%
SF: 19.5% vs 19%

Polling averages via @irishpollingind.bsky.social

Comparison of latest polls and 2024 Exit Poll

Nice graph by @markcoughlan.bsky.social comparing the latest estimates from each pollster with the #GE24 Exit Poll.

It looks very consistent, with barely any differences between face-to-face (Ipsos B&A) online polls (Red C, Ireland Thinks, Opinions).

📊 www.rte.ie/news/primeti...

From Covid to Kanturk: aggregated support for parties and Independents throughout the electoral cycle (February 2020 to November 2024), based on 154 opinion polls.

Latest estimates: pollingindicator.com
Data: github.com/Irish-Pollin...
#GE24

Overview of latest polling indicator estimates.

I am really glad that @stefanmueller.bsky.social is keeping the Irish Polling Indicator up to date. Currently the four largest parties/actors are very close. But: polls are (imperfect) estimates for the situation now, might still change in the days running up to the elections! pollingindicator.com

My @news.rte.ie article today focuses on trends in voter turnout over time and in a comparative perspective, measurement issues, satisfaction with democracy, the age gap in turnout, and the implications of low turnout.
#GE24

➡️ www.rte.ie/news/electio...

The @theguardian.com summarised party support over the past three years based on the Irish Polling Indicator ⤵️

www.theguardian.com/world/2024/n...
#GE24

A lot of discussion about incumbency effects at the moment.

The plot below maps the trend since 1937. In Irish general elections, around 8 in 10 TDs who choose to stand again are re-elected. This re-election rate ranks among the highest in the world.

www.rte.ie/news/electio...
#GE24
1/2

The article by @stefanmueller.bsky.social on RTÉ News from Sunday features the latest estimates and outlines the goal of the Irish Polling Indicator: to provide context for new polls rather than attempting to “compete” with pollsters or predict election outcomes.

www.rte.ie/news/2024/11...
#GE24