Gavin Simpson

4-panel comic. (1) [Person 1 with ponytail flanked by person with short hair and another person speaking into microphone at podium] PERSON 1: In the early 2010s, researchers found that many major scientific results couldn’t be reproduced. (2) PERSON 1: Over a decade into the replication crisis, we wanted to see if today’s studies have become more robust. (3) PERSON 1: Unfortunately, our replication analysis has found exactly the same problems that those 2010s researchers did. (4) [newspaper with image of speakers from previous panels] Headline: Replication Crisis Solved

Replication Crisis

xkcd.com/3117/

r/AskNYC u/UmweltUndefined • 3h Is there anywhere that delivers that will give a discount rate on 65 gallons of milk?

You WILLL NOT guess what this is about. But I encourage you to try before clicking through for the answer. www.reddit.com/r/AskNYC/s/X...

📢 Course alert!
Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) in R with @gsimpson.bsky.social
📅 8–11 Dec (Online)
Learn how to model complex relationships using GAMs, splines & more with mgcv and gratia.
Details & registration 👉 www.physalia-courses.org/courses-work...
#Rstats #DataScience #GAMs #Statistics

Panoramic photo of people at Åben, Aarhus, 🇩🇰, for the second night of Pint of Science 2025

Packed house at Åben 🍻 for the second night of #PintOfScience in #Aarhus #Denmark 🧬 🧪

Tonight’s talks;

🎙️ Attack of the Clones - Andrew Ferenbach

🎙️ Is there a Serial Killer Gene? Victoria Twiddy

It is criminal that early career researchers like Bert are in such tenuous positions.

Bert has and continues to do some exceptional work on statistical ecology.

If you know of any relevant opportunities, details 👇

A few months until the end of my postdoc contract. Norway has defunded a good part of the academic system, so opportunities are limited. I will try to apply for my own funding, but pending potential failure, if someone has a job opportunity that might suit me I would be happy to have a chat!

...And used this helpful suggestion from @vincentab.bsky.social using the marginaleffects package (cited in the preprint) to estimated total hospitalizations averted across the whole season.

bsky.app/profile/vinc...

The paper also makes use of the hierarchical GAMs outlined here by @ericjpedersen.bsky.social, David Miller, @gsimpson.bsky.social, @noamross.net (well, the simplest possible application of them anyway)...

peerj.com/articles/6876/

Headline with word break as follows: "White House Slammed After Replacing Obama Portrait With Painting Of Trump's Ass..."

That's quite a line break...

European Citizens' Initiative Give your support !

REPOSTS APPRECIATED ‼️

Please if you're a queer european person or simply a decent human being, sign his petition to help fight LGTB+phobia in EU. Trans people are being persecuted, it ends in a month and in less than a minute you can help people to not lose rights

eci.ec.europa.eu/043/public/#...

My brother and son are autistic and RFK Jr can go fuck himself, along with every single person who watches this and nods along.

UK creating ‘murder prediction’ tool to identify people most likely to kill Exclusive: Algorithms allegedly being used to study data of thousands of people, in project critics say is ‘chilling and dystopian’

When will they learn 🤬

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

📌

Oops sorry; just realized this was posted a few months back now

MEE went Gold OA a couple of years back so the pdf should be freely available (versions of Dave’s paper have also been on ArXiv for a while too)

example of simulation ("parametric Bayes")-based confidence intervals for Z-I gamma example of simulation ("parametric Bayes")-based confidence intervals for Z-I gamma - zigamma_pred.R

For what it's worth I wrote a bit of posterior simulation code gist.github.com/bbolker/a369... - this may mimic what's already done under the hood in some of @strengejacke.bsky.social's packages ...

Thanks; this was really helpful. The bias correction works and I understand how to compare with what margibaleffects was giving me, which is reassuring. The bias correction seems ok in this case, compared well to simulation based version

Thanks; I think I’ll just use posterior simulation and avoid the whole issue, but good to know what marginaleffects is doing; I had missed that it does it the way you say and had been wondering why it had implausible confidence intervals on some models I was just playing around with

I think that’s what marginaleffects is doing but the CI includes negative values which aren’t possible

What's a good way to compute a confidence interval for fitted (i.e. expected) values of response in a zero-altered gamma model (no ranefs) fitted in glmmTMB (with family = ziGamma(link = "log"))?

@bbolker.bsky.social ?

#RStats

The Valuable, Vulnerable, Long Tail of Earth Science Databases - Eos Community-curated data resources in the Earth sciences, highly valuable but systematically underfunded, are vital to research on a changing planet.

New essay out in EOS: The Valuable, Vulnerable, Long Tail of Earth Science Databases. eos.org/opinions/the... These data resources are essential to Earth system research and have enormous costs of replacement. With Andrea Thomer, @sjgoring.bsky.social, & Jessica Blois

Lungfish xkcd.com/3064

That was my initial guess; mgcv is pretty picky about sp matching up with the smooths you’ve specified

Do you mean you have the beta^T S beta and want to use exactly that? Or do you have the value of lambda, the smoothing parameter? Either would work I think. You can specify the exact penalty through the MRF smooth, and you can pass smoothing parameters via the sp argument to smooths.

Bonus update! Choropleths are still visually distorted and overrepresent land, so we can instead use points that are sized by population. I added an example at the end to show one way to do this with {sf}'s magical st_centroid() #rstats www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...

One more bonus update with two changes:

1. A diverging color palette centered at 4% lets us see which counties are doing great or doing poorly
2. That size legend was spaced funnily, but we can make it more compact with {legendry}

#rstats

www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...

📌

Your argument for why we need the filter seems to rest on scientists not having time to consider & vet work they are relying on to support their own research. I think that’s a mistake. We have big problems if scientists can’t tell the wheat from the chaff & are just citing work without reading it

Most of what I read is preprints now, actually. That’s where most of the stuff get posted first. And we all know that stuff gets published eventually, often with little change, just by going down the journal ladder with your paper.

All those papers have been peer reviewed. In isolation there is no perfect solution here, but we’re wasting time trying to find people to review papers, publishing too much, to meet assessment criteria imposed on us by bureaucrats or those in senior positions. We have to start somewhere with change