@brendannyhan.bsky.social
Dartmouth political scientist and Bright Line Watch co-director. Previously Upshot NYT / CJR contributor, Spinsanity co-founder, All the President's Spin co-author. https://sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/ http://brightlinewatch.org
Why hasn't Trump received a "rally around the flag" bump in his approval rating?
I made every presidential approval chart you could ever want to explain www.gelliottmorris.com/p/i-graphed-...
Competitive authoritarianism watch
Thanks for continuing to read, cite, and share this paper. It remains controversial in some corners of the discipline, but I stand by it completely.
Many Black folks don’t use terms “liberal” and “conservative,” which makes the liberal-conservative scale a noisy tool for studying Black politics.
Gerontocracy rules everything around me
The school is open for kids. The only think preventing the kids from attending right now is the school shooting.
Competitive authoritarianism watch. Ominous.
this means it is not open for transit
”Why not to play stage-game best response in a repeated game”
"Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes."
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
www.cnn.com/2026/03/12/p...
It’s beautiful to watch a meme be born in real time
Campaigning on death
This is the best lede I've seen in a tech story in...years? There should be an award just for ledes.
I know I’m a goddamn broken record, I really do, but Congress had a way to change that, it worked for decades, and the Supreme Court blew it up in the 1980s in a way that was impossible for Congress to fix. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The Trump WH is starting to reap what it has sown in terms of screwing over counterparties:
-Iran can't trust a negotiated settlement so why reach one?
-Ds in Congress can't trust Trump to follow the law so why bargain w/him?
-Universities see past deals leading to future shakedowns so why make one?
I think the rising generation of young republicans is...something even the current republican party is not ready for, as evidenced by these recent clashes on Heritage, Tucker, etc. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/o...
Going to ground and pound that money laundering scheme!
Of course it will be, because he’s 12.
Imagine being the Lloyd’s underwriter who has to explain maritime insurance to a Trump appointee
"I don't get it. Why are they confessing?"
"They're not confessing. They're bragging"
My “Looking at the Straits very strongly” t-shirt is raising questions answered by this explosion.
He should do some photo ops of him sailing through the strait himself, just to prove how safe it is
It further found that the “typical billionaire families gave an average total of $10 million each in 2024, an amount roughly equal to what 100,000 typical political donors gave, combined. And that does not count money that billionaires contributed through dark money groups ....”
The Times study found that “300 billionaires and their immediate family members donated more than $3 billion — 19 percent of all contributions — in federal elections in 2024, either directly or through political action committees.”
Despite wearing his clown shoes, JD Vance is weakening dramatically vs. Rubio in futures markets for the 2028 nomination
A week ago: Vance 42%, Rubio 20%
Now: Vance 38%, Rubio 32%
kalshi.com/markets/kxpr...
I may be wrong, but it feels to me like reporters are giving Trump a lot more "Yeah, no, that's bullshit" responses now than they did just a few months ago.
Mamdani is considering ending free street parking in NYC. This would be another huge boost to NYC residents' quality of life, reducing traffic in ways that would be comparable to congestion pricing. And it would be another step in ending suburban free-riding on NYC.
“The former official said he doesn't think Trump is playing ‘the sort of three-dimensional chess people ascribe to decisions like this. More often than not he's just eating the pieces.’"