okay a shorter way of what i meant to say is
despite this poll, I still expect Talarico to do better on election day in the big urban counties and that's how i'll interpret the EV results on tuesday night
okay a shorter way of what i meant to say is
despite this poll, I still expect Talarico to do better on election day in the big urban counties and that's how i'll interpret the EV results on tuesday night
So, color me super skeptical of Talarico doing way way better in the EV
I think it’s possible that Talarico doing better on eday will be more pronounced intra-county, but I would be shocked if the Emerson gap was anything close to true
just put these side by side with every time he said he was *the* anti-war guy
“I’m only one who will keep your sons and daughters from dying in war”
“lol yeah I started a war and people are dying, that’s kinda just the way it goes oh well”
Texas only reached the outskirts of reach target competitiveness in 2016 (it was 11% right of the nation, vs 20% in 2012)
2018 is the only very blue year we’ve had since then
2018 is the entire recent history of contestable years in Texas. Give me a break omg
“TX Ds spent 30 years trying candidates like…” is a major tell of cluelessness about TX politics
No, TX Ds put sacrificial names without campaigns on ballots for decades
This is the *second* senate race in several decades that the environment could allow to be competitive
There is no great year to compare with because this turnout is so unprecedented
What 2024 does give us is the most recent look at voting patterns possible, which is what makes have some value
Here's the % of each days' votes coming from precincts with >50% (45% in Travis) Hispanic CVAP in Harris, Dallas, and Travis
This is *not* an estimate of the Latino voteshare (these are way too low), just a proxy for how it's trending
Can see the increase in the final few days
Last two data posts here
This is the cumulative share of the Dem IPEV over the course of EV in 2024 and 2026
Dallas & Tarrant started out much stronger than 2024 and lost a bit of share over the EV window, but still finished the EV window ahead of 2024
Question is eday now
Here's Dem turnout! We don't have a complete picture, but over 1.1m IPEV in these 12 counties alone, 286% of their 2024 combined total
Largest increases in the fastest-growing areas
Only because no other RGV counties make it into the top 12, Cameron and Webb look extremely similar for example
28.02.2026 20:37 — 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
EV is complete, and here's how the biggest counties performed in total turnout, and by composition of primary participation
28.02.2026 20:33 — 👍 38 🔁 14 💬 3 📌 3This is just 2026 Dem primary votes divided by 2024 Dem primary votes
28.02.2026 18:01 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0I would assume closer to 60/40 for now but the bounce back with Latinos does leave room for a huge Election Day
28.02.2026 06:50 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Absolute minimum of 300k Dem IPEV today
Think the total Dem early vote might be around 1.6m
Of the counties we have, here's Dem IPEV turnout and how it compares to the 2024 primary
Weighted average is well above 300% of 2024 thus far (total 2024 IPEV turnout was 531k)
Bexar is the first of the big 5 urban counties to post, and it finished IPEV at 196% of 2024's primary total
D+35 by composition
El Paso also posted and it managed to hit 200% of 2024's primary total
Some complete counties so far tonight
Jefferson is a little weak, and the RGV is bluer than 2024 but still redder than 2020 by composition
every county is legally required to post turnout rosters on their websites (though not all actually do it), but most of them will post nightly
28.02.2026 03:22 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 025.1k votes in Denton, just R+2 today
28.02.2026 03:04 — 👍 14 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 1
To be fair, this is the fastest left trending county in the state!
Allred only lost it by 20 in 2024
One of the first counties to report its rosters today is Kaufman, a super fast-growing Dallas suburb
nearly 17k votes cast, a 55% increase from 2024's primary. Composition is roughly 7900 D, 9000 R
about R+6.5
It was R+67 in 2024!
Travis still has a decent stream of votes coming in, but the others are just about done (MontCo has a teeny tiny bit still)
28.02.2026 01:55 — 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0sorry this should have been 34.3k through 7pm
28.02.2026 01:33 — 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 033.3k in Travis through 7pm, but we should get several thousand more votes in the after-7 window
28.02.2026 01:07 — 👍 15 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
This whole thing is exceedingly strange to me
Why was any of this necessary? Just say “yes we kicked her out”
Why lie about removing her repeatedly, then say she was never there, and then completely fabricate a story about her being sued for defamation
It’s so baffling!
Smaller counties have just started gaining ground against yesterday again
26 of ~40 vote centers in Travis have over a 20 minute wait so they’re really squeezing out every possible vote each hour
All five counties have passed their totals from yesterday
Past elections would suggest Crockett will do like 6-10% better in the early vote actually
Obama, Royce West, Allred all did much better in the early vote
