Dj

Relatively speaking the bad payroll numbers are kind of a nothingburger in the sense that labor market weakness is not a surprise & in isolation could spur more rate cuts

But it’s not great that there’s a large global supply shock happening very quickly and the labor market is not well supported

Oil price charts are kinda just mental right now. Nearly unprecedented supply shock, WTI up nearly 50% from mid Feb

And politics aside the real-world cascading effects could get miserable very quickly

the way this was so prescient and it just gets worse for them

- Iran war could be a significant price shock & some underlying inflation signals were already accelerating

—> Worst jobs report since covid🗿

Uh, jobs report came in at -92k vs +50k expected

December and was revised down by 65k from +48k to -17k

Jan revised down by 4k, 130–>126k

If you live in Virginia, early voting starts tomorrow!

Go vote yes on the referendum 🤠

(also I love when Ds get to control the ballot language 🥰)

Somehow, gas price politics returned

“Trump calls affordability a hoax while you literally pay the price of him sending your children to fight a pointless war he promised he’d never start”

He really has been spoonfeeding midterm messages for Ds

Incredible the extent to which Trump’s courses of action seem lab-designed to maximally damage R midterm chances

I think Trump endorsing Cornyn is a precondition for a Cornyn win, but I’m not sure how much the net effect is

Typical runoff effects benefit Paxton, so if the race is still close, it’s probably worthwhile for D PACs to put money in

Especially in the Houston DMA

I think some of the worst reporting from this primary was from ostensibly serious publications saying Crockett was drawn out of her district

Of all TX Dems, she had one of the most in-tact CDs after redistricting (there’s no residency requirement if you thought that was why)

I regret to inform you that satellite locations in the big (blue) counties have been nuked from orbit compared to 2025 and it’s once again likely going to lead to bad EV takes

Because the EV window is so long the posting will be thankfully light for a while

First thing I’m gonna do is run through the satellite situation and see if anything’s different from Nov

If not it’ll be nice to have a very recent apples to apples comparison

EV starts on Friday for VA’s referendums 🤪 and I’ll talk about it similarly to how I did for the Gov race

I’m big time manifesting a Stratton win in IL, but don’t think I’m familiar enough with the state to offer anything worthwhile there

Seeing people post betting market odds using “____% chance this happens” and taking it as anything but speculative kinda makes my eye twitch

I remember posting this last night in response to seeing people post betting markets saying Talarico >+10

I’m still baffled at how they got there - literally nothing at that time would imply anything close

Every result after that was best case for Talarico and he ended +6 😵‍💫

We have almost all of the vote in now and Talarico did do better on Election Day thanks to good margins with young and Latino voters

Statewide by about 2.5%, and in four of the five big urban counties

Emerson’s topline was quite good but that vote method crosstab was 😐

After Trump endorses Cornyn, it’ll be interesting to see how Paxton and Hunt respond

🫩

Dallas had a majority of its EDay to report and just dropped it

Allred and Johnson into a runoff

I think Johnson will get most Hafeez voters if they show up, and I think her base is higher propensity, so I’m not totally sure that Allred has it sewn up

Even though the the results were incredibly racially polarized, the on-the-ground feel was pretty positive across the board

There were some big (mostly non-Texan) accounts who lost their minds over this race, but a lot of the “supporters” online being vile were bots or Rs lmao

He’s previously said he’d prefer Paxton but I am not sure if he’ll endorse now

Late polls had Paxton up like 3-4, so a bit better for Cornyn here

Runoffs have historically benefited the further right candidate, and I think results suggest Hunt drew from Paxton more

Cornyn’s best big counties saw Hunt below his statewide #, Paxton’s best had him above

Everything about the way this Election Day was handled in Dallas was malpractice to the nth degree, and the fact that it impacted Ds instead of Rs is dirty work

Jane Nelson, Dallas Rs, you will not be seeing the pearly gates

By the way, I’m partially convinced Paxton sued & the TXSOS overturned the extra Dallas hours (at 8:40pm!!) with the specific intention of sowing discord

bc it couldn’t have made a difference, but it’s still an asshole move

Very responsible for Crockett to acknowledge it but not take the bait

Finally called at nearly 2am

Another reason it’s nice that Talarico doing better on eday is bearing out is minimizing the impact of the Dallas vote center issue

I think it’s better for everyone if it’s as big of a win as possible to avoid the risk of that appearing determinative + a drawn out fight

Def seems runoff-bound

Quintanilla getting nearly 25% on eday

Very nice for Talarico to be doing so much better on eday in the big cities (except for Austin but he didn’t have much room to go up)

Indication of his strength with younger voters, including nonwhite (particularly Latino) younger voters

Many people are saying this is the fakest crosstab of all time (but a decent topline!)

We're going to get to bear witness to one of the most expensive and nasty runoffs in history

Rs are gonna spend up to a quarter billion going after Paxton lmao

I think Talarico got Assad margins with urban/suburban white voters, did moderately well with Latinos and got blown out with Black voters

I would spend an exorbitant amount of time & resources in nonwhite parts of the triangle (& the RGV) while Paxton & Cornyn torch eachother