Dj

From this point comparisons to 2024 on a macro level get less and less useful

Richmond and Chesapeake had been averaging around 80% of 2024 IPEV turnout daily

Yesterday they did about 30% and 25%, and this will just get worse as more 2024 satellites are opened earlier

this is by % of 24 total

all highlighted counties have satellites (though varying numbers - Henrico will only have 1 more)

yellow = no change to satellites
orange = reduced access relative to 2024 when satellites open
red = already has reduced access vs 2024

Starting tomorrow (tomorrow’s update, today’s votes) some big counties in VA will start falling considerably behind their 2024 numbers

On this day in 2024, Richmond and Chesapeake opened their satellites but they won’t open until the 20th this year

Added 35 localities to the sheet, tracking precinct EV turnout

Can click on the names of a HD or city/county to get taken to that tab now 🫠

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

This is what I have set up for ~25 or so localities but I don’t have access to my computer so they’ll probably have to get added to the public spreadsheet tomorrow

17 statewide propositions will appear on the November ballot. Here’s what Texas voters need to know. A majority of the proposed constitutional amendments address tax cuts for homeowners and businesses.

Texas oomfs:

We have 17(!) constitutional amendments on the ballot this year (and you might have local elections as well)

The voter registration deadline is Monday & early voting starts on the 20th

Can read about the propositions here:

www.texastribune.org/2025/09/22/t...

meanwhile Henrico🗿

let's play is it real or from a lack of satellites

Yeah AG, sorry !

I wish I had the audacity (and ignorance) to text a member of the opposing party joking about how you’d shoot the HoD speaker (over Hitler!) and then be like

Yeah, that’s not gonna be a problem, I’ll just run for statewide office now 🤠

Must be a blissful life lmao

Here are all the HDs included

I'll update with each update of the file, and keep in mind that it's still exceptionally early in the EV window

Alright, as promised

Here's the EV precinct breakdown for the 19 closest HDs in @StateNavigate's forecast

Have IPEV, VBM, and combined EV turnout as a % of 24's totals for each precinct in each HD

I'll start adding full localities soon

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

I tried to capture the changes in IPEV location access in the bigger counties for an idea of when to expect divergences from 2024

1) poor Arlington getting done super dirty
2) Apparently Loudoun actually has an EXTRA satellite location this year vs 2024

I really like The Fate of Ophelia, though some of the writing on this album is truly heinous to me

I have a sheet with the 19 closest HoD races (per @statenavigate.org) and their EV broken down by precinct

idk how much interest there is in it but I’ll probably make it public when I’m home later today and finish formatting it

(I’ll prob start adding full localities later)

nothing that stands out as significant to me yet

Spending way too much time on this silly precinct breakdown of all these HoD races 🫠

Too early to say for sure still, and Dems would still benefit from improving their image a whole lot

This is just looking at automatic voter registration, this happens when someone gets a drivers license for the most part (or updates it if they’re not already registered)

So this is a very rough heuristic for *new* young registrants

Rs gained last month via party switches

Update on the automatic voter reg by party affiliation in PA

In August and September, Ds got more voters from AVR for the first time since AVR was introduced (9.4k vs 7.7k)

I think it's still too early to tell if it's a legitimate trend, but it's something to keep an eye on

VA EV update

Data is a bit quirky - localities hit hardest by Helene skyrocketed vs 2024 bc they have an essential extra day of EV

Places like Roanoke City, Bedford, and Washington all look a lot better here than they actually are, but this distortion will fade over time

What are we doing here?

Coal is dying. It’s a fading industry, and all the money and deregulation in the world will only prolong its death

Lighting money, time, (and the planet) on fire instead of actually “unleashing American energy” solely bc they think coal isn’t “woke”

how is the interview with a vampire show?

looking for something that is both gay and good and I’ve heard positive things about it 🙂‍↕️

Reposting with correct chart title, HD41:
Trump +4.5, Youngkin +12, R+0.7 in 2023

HD is at 7% of total 2024 IPEV
Harris pcts: 5.8%
Trump pcts: 8%

This HD holds Virginia Tech, which is fairly sleepy to start. Seat comes down to whether or not Ds can eventually activate students

Montgomery has a satellite location closer to campus open for the last two Saturdays in the EV window (Oct 25, Nov 1), but otherwise it's just the main office

i can't believe how long this state's early voting period is lol

tldr is that bc we're still so early in EV, this looks deceptively good for Petersburg turnout

It'll either need to pick up relative to 2024, or have the rest of the HD slow down vs 2024

Otherwise it'll start falling behind with each consecutive day. HD41 next!

HD82: Harris +4, Youngkin +2, R+0.3 in 2023

Harris pcts: 9.5% of 2024 total
Trump pcts: 9.7%

*However:* In 2024, Petersburg had already cast 20% of its total IPEV in the first four days (rest of the HD only about 11%), so it'll need a significant pattern change to keep pace

First HoD precinct EV dive

HD71: Harris +5, Youngkin +8, R+2 in 2023

High turnout so far, already at 11.9% of its 2024 IPEV total
Harris pcts: 12.9%
Trump pcts: 9.3%

In JCC, Harris pcts are at 13.1% vs 9.8% for Trump, but many of those are quite close

Big localities and their IPEV as a % of 2024, along with the day 3 IPEV and its % of 2024's equivalent day

I will eventually use add EV, but it's too early to use total EV when we have very little VBM in and significant imbalances in VBM use between localities

Yes — it never has much early vote though, I wouldn’t be surprised if it only gets a few by the end of the EV window