Dj

Texas only reached the outskirts of reach target competitiveness in 2016 (it was 11% right of the nation, vs 20% in 2012)

2018 is the only very blue year we’ve had since then

2018 is the entire recent history of contestable years in Texas. Give me a break omg 🫩

“TX Ds spent 30 years trying candidates like…” is a major tell of cluelessness about TX politics

No, TX Ds put sacrificial names without campaigns on ballots for decades

This is the *second* senate race in several decades that the environment could allow to be competitive

There is no great year to compare with because this turnout is so unprecedented

What 2024 does give us is the most recent look at voting patterns possible, which is what makes have some value

Here's the % of each days' votes coming from precincts with >50% (45% in Travis) Hispanic CVAP in Harris, Dallas, and Travis

This is *not* an estimate of the Latino voteshare (these are way too low), just a proxy for how it's trending

Can see the increase in the final few days

Last two data posts here

This is the cumulative share of the Dem IPEV over the course of EV in 2024 and 2026

Dallas & Tarrant started out much stronger than 2024 and lost a bit of share over the EV window, but still finished the EV window ahead of 2024

Question is eday now

Here's Dem turnout! We don't have a complete picture, but over 1.1m IPEV in these 12 counties alone, 286% of their 2024 combined total

Largest increases in the fastest-growing areas

Only because no other RGV counties make it into the top 12, Cameron and Webb look extremely similar for example

EV is complete, and here's how the biggest counties performed in total turnout, and by composition of primary participation

This is just 2026 Dem primary votes divided by 2024 Dem primary votes

I would assume closer to 60/40 for now but the bounce back with Latinos does leave room for a huge Election Day

Absolute minimum of 300k Dem IPEV today

Think the total Dem early vote might be around 1.6m

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Harris county: 75,086 votes cast today
50,437 Dem
24,649 Rep

Of the counties we have, here's Dem IPEV turnout and how it compares to the 2024 primary

Weighted average is well above 300% of 2024 thus far (total 2024 IPEV turnout was 531k)

Bexar is the first of the big 5 urban counties to post, and it finished IPEV at 196% of 2024's primary total

D+35 by composition

El Paso also posted and it managed to hit 200% of 2024's primary total

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Bexar total: 35,483
Dem - 24,457
Rep - 11,026

Some complete counties so far tonight

Jefferson is a little weak, and the RGV is bluer than 2024 but still redder than 2020 by composition

every county is legally required to post turnout rosters on their websites (though not all actually do it), but most of them will post nightly

25.1k votes in Denton, just R+2 today

To be fair, this is the fastest left trending county in the state!

Allred only lost it by 20 in 2024

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30.5k votes out of Collin today

One of the first counties to report its rosters today is Kaufman, a super fast-growing Dallas suburb

nearly 17k votes cast, a 55% increase from 2024's primary. Composition is roughly 7900 D, 9000 R
about R+6.5

It was R+67 in 2024!

Travis still has a decent stream of votes coming in, but the others are just about done (MontCo has a teeny tiny bit still)

sorry this should have been 34.3k through 7pm

33.3k in Travis through 7pm, but we should get several thousand more votes in the after-7 window

This whole thing is exceedingly strange to me

Why was any of this necessary? Just say “yes we kicked her out”

Why lie about removing her repeatedly, then say she was never there, and then completely fabricate a story about her being sued for defamation

It’s so baffling!

Smaller counties have just started gaining ground against yesterday again

26 of ~40 vote centers in Travis have over a 20 minute wait so they’re really squeezing out every possible vote each hour

All five counties have passed their totals from yesterday

Past elections would suggest Crockett will do like 6-10% better in the early vote actually

Obama, Royce West, Allred all did much better in the early vote

Here’s Dallas (left): Left side of the circle is Dems, right side is Reps

And Harris (right) which uh, seems busy! Only two green vote centers lmao

Solidly over half of the locations in Travis have at least a 20 minute wait

We’re already around 1.25m Dem votes

Not sure about 200% but travis and harris could be close