Paul T. Levin

From the First Lady of Iraq. (Her party—the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)—has not to my knowledge joined the recently formed coalition of 5 Iranian Kurdish parties.)

Du har gott omdöme! 😜
Tack det var snällt sagt.

Ultimately, the problem comes down to the fact that this war is being perpetrated by Trump & Netanyahu. One unreliable leader who couldn’t even spell “strategy” and another whose strategy is to basically just smash and destabilize all perceived adversaries in the region.

Finally, opening a larger Iranian Kurdish front from Iraq may also pose the risk of regional contagion. Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey are some of the immediate contenders for getting dragged in or affected by an escalated ethnic conflict in Iran.+

Then there is the risk of success… A successful Kurdish insurgency could plunge Iran, a country four times the size of Syria into civil war. That could dwarf the 2015 refugee crisis.+

Risks: Kurdish leaders would be taking a tremendous risk given that Trump could simply tire of the whole thing, declare victory, and end the war, leaving the Kurds to fend for themselves.+

“The autonomous region in Iraqi Kurdistan was established thanks to a US-enforced UN-authorized no-fly zone following Saddam's brutal crackdown on the Kurds who rebelled in 1991, and now the Iranian Kurds are similarly asking for a no-fly zone.”

Opportunities:
“The Kurdish groups who have been fighting for collective Kurdish rights or for Kurdish autonomy have few options but to rely on external support since all the regional powers want to prevent those things.”+

Opportunities: “The Operation JAWBREAKER and ENDURING FREEDOM model shows that even a small US military/intelligence presence can have an outsized impact and radically transform the battlefield, giving local forces without much heavy equipment a de facto top-notch air force.”+

The Kurdish Gamble Risks and opportunities in Western Iran

I wrote a short piece about the opportunities and risks of a US & Israeli-led incursion by Iranian Kurds in Western Iran. (Spoiler: There are more risks than opportunities.)

😳

Yup.

On this point.

More broadly, the piece is a great take on where Trump is taking us. I'd maybe add that IR scholarship is partially divided on whether multipolarity is associated with greater conflict, but I think Kagan is basically right. Past multipolar eras were not peaceful & they ended extremely violently.

It is astonishing to see how the Trump foreign & defense policy team seems to think that they can treat other countries any way they like, and still get full support & cooperation. They will get some, but their behavior will have consequences in the long run, and they won't be good for the USA.+

According to Middle East Eye, Iran has targeted “the headquarters of Kurdish forces in Iraqi Kurdistan” and also repelled an incursion by Kurdish forces. If this continues, we could be seeing the beginning of a ln Iranian civil war with regional spillover.

😂

I’m with Marc on this. Lots of risks for the region and for the Kurds.

It’s apparently being reported by Barak Ravid on Axios and by FOX News. @amberinzaman.bsky.social published this piece just today, which predicted an incursion. So it seems more likely that this is actually happening.

bsky.app/profile/joyc...

I would still caution that there are such things as misinformation in wars, but this is now coming from several places. It would be nice to have links to the sources.

If there is something akin to an actual front being opened from Iraqi Kurdistan, that would also put Trump’s recent call to the two Kurdish leaders there in perspective. But I am speculating. Let’s wait and see if this is confirmed.

New Front to be Opened in Kurdish areas of Iran - Middle East Transparent The Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MeK) tried to attack the Headquarters of the Iranian Supreme Leader (Beit-e Rahbari) located in the Motahari Complex in Tehran on Monday 23 February but were not successful in ...

Source.
middleeasttransparent.com/new-front-to...

This is unverified, but does fit a recent pattern with IRGC striking at Kurdish villages in the West and Kurdish groups striking back. There are also reports of US SOF in Iraqi Kurdistan, who could be helping guide such an incursion.+

Kan kurderna hota Irans regim? Poddavsnitt · Kvartal Idag · 4 mars · 8 min

Jag pratade med Kvartals podd om uppgifterna att CIA vill ge kurdiska styrkor i Iran vapen för att göra revolt mot regimen. En osäker strategi med stora risker för framför allt Irans kurder.

But unclear, it seems.

I haven’t seen any information about the likely target, but it was shot down over Dörtyol, Hatay, and just looking at the map, it definitely seems like that could be in the flight path of a missile from Iran traveling towards Adana.

😄 That’s on me. I might have to add sarcasm disclaimers in the future because it keeps happening!

Yes! It’s quite striking. European leaders have not quite caught up to how much the Israeli strategy flies in the face of their interests. Look what a “destabilized” Syria meant for Europe in 2015. Iran is 4x the size…

Also, there’s a Turkish saying for every occasion.

Just to be perfectly clear, this is my interpretation, not Aslı’s.

Great @turkeyrecap.bsky.social conversation with @hurcanasliaksoy.bsky.social about Turkey-Israel relations. She doesn’t say it, but the conversation illustrates that Israel is now behaving much like a revisionist regional power that seeks to weaken neighbors & destabilize the region.