Giorgio Cafiero

Gaza’s Armed Fragmentation: Clans, Militias, and Rival Power Centers • Stimson Center Many of the groups are supported by Israeli authorities who see Palestinian fragmentation as a way to both contain Hamas and to perpetuate Israel’s occupation.

A most useful piece by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social explaining who's who among the armed factions in Gaza.
www.stimson.org/2025/gazas-a...

Gulf Diplomacy Eases Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions - AGSI Gulf Arab states are using their diplomatic, financial, and religious leverage to try and de-escalate rising Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions.

Gulf Diplomacy Eases Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/gul...

Netanyahu’s last war? The struggle for Israel’s political future Whether Benjamin Netanyahu clings to power or is cast aside, his legacy is one of permanently shifting Israel’s political landscape to the far right

@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social analyzes Israel's political future in his latest piece for @thenewarab.bsky.social. Giorgio quotes me in his article, among others.

www.newarab.com/analysis/net...

Iran’s Messaging After Israel’s Qatar Strike - Arab Gulf States Institute Iran has moved quickly to try to capitalize on cracks in U.S.-Gulf relations after Israel’s unprecedented attack on Hamas officials in Qatar.

While Iran’s efforts to position itself as a credible alternative to Western security guarantees have met with little practical success, this narrative remains a central theme in its diplomatic outreach to neighboring Arab states. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

@giorgiocafiero.bsky.social for @theipaper.com on Tom Barrack's dumb south Lebanon economic zone idea: inews.co.uk/news/world/t...

Includes my thoughts 👇🏻

Geopolitical Pressures Dismantled Europe’s Iran Engagement - Arab Gulf States Institute With the E3 triggering the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism and aligning more closely with Washington’s hard-line stance, Europe’s role as an independent diplomatic actor in Tehran is effectively over.

The European trio operates in a sharply different environment shaped by East-West divisions, which helps explain the E3’s hardening stance toward Iran. @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/geo...

How does the Kremlin view Iran-US diplomacy? The nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, which have taken place in Muscat and Rome under Omani auspices, are “reassuring” to Russia, which has high stakes in the outcome and seeks to cons...

My latest @amwajmedia.bsky.social article is about #Russia's perspective on American-Iranian nuclear talks. This piece quotes Ghoncheh Tazmini, Mark Katz, and Samuel Ramani.

amwaj.media/en/article/h...

What to expect from Trump’s high-stakes Middle East visit Analysis: Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE reflects their importance to US foreign policy as regional powerhouses with deep pockets.

My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social piece is about #Trump's upcoming #Gulf visit. This article quotes @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, Anna Jacobs, and Courtney Freer. www.newarab.com/analysis/wha... #SaudiArabia #Qatar #UAE

UAE may need al-Sharaa as much as he needs it. Here's why. New Syrian president got a warm welcome this week, as he holds out for sanctions relief. So what does Abu-Dhabi stand to gain?

“Rather than signalling political endorsement/readiness to leverage influence in 🇺🇸 on Syria’s behalf, 🇦🇪’s engagement stems from more pragmatic concerns, i.e a desire to avoid being excluded in a rapidly evolving regional order shaped by the involvement of 🇹🇷 and 🇸🇦” I told @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social

UAE may need al-Sharaa as much as he needs it. Here's why. New Syrian president got a warm welcome this week, as he holds out for sanctions relief. So what does Abu-Dhabi stand to gain?

"The UAE is being pragmatic about Syria’s new reality. Abu Dhabi assesses that by minimizing friction with Syria’s new government, it can steer Damascus away from conduct that could threaten Emirati interests."

By @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social.

responsiblestatecraft.org/al-sharaaa-u...

Mideast mediator Oman at the center of a key first Iran-US meeting over Tehran's nuclear program Iran and the United States will meet in Oman for the first talks in President Donald Trump’s second term over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program

I spoke to @jongambrell.bsky.social about #Oman's role as a diplomatic bridge between #Washington and #Tehran.

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Mass citizenship stripping in Kuwait cements authoritarian turn, critics say Amwaj.media offers news, opinion and analysis on Iran, Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula - coverage of the region, from the region.

Read @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social's article about the increasing rate of citizenship revocation in Kuwait. He quotes me, @seanyom.bsky.social, Courtney Freer, and Michael Herb.

amwaj.media/en/article/m...

Turkey and Russia Will Remain ‘Frenemies’ in Syria After Assad’s fall, Turkey’s and Russia’s positions in Syria have flipped. Their coordination in the country is set to stay the same.

Here is my latest @wpr.bsky.social piece...

#Turkey and #Russia Will Remain ‘Frenemies’ in #Syria

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/syria-turkey...

Israel and Turkey: The showdown that could shape Syria s future Analysis: Turkey and Israel are the two main players to fill power vacuums in post-Assad Syria, and friction between Ankara and Tel Aviv is intensifying.

My new @thenewarab.bsky.social piece analyzes how the situation in post-Assad Syria is fueling lots of tension between #Turkey and #Israel. This article quotes @ambgordongray.bsky.social, Matthew Bryza, Gokhan Ereli, Mustafa Caner, and Joshua Landis. www.newarab.com/analysis/isr...

Geopolitical Dynamics Surrounding Iraq’s Ambitious Development Road Project Leveraging its geography and resources to serve as an economic bridge between Asia and Europe is not a new concept for Iraq. In the 1980s, the country promoted the “Dry Canal” idea of offering a comme...

After returning from #Baghdad late last month, I produced this analysis for @arab-center-dc.bsky.social.

arabcenterdc.org/resource/geo... #Iraq #DevelopmentRoad #Qatar #UAE #Turkey #Iran #China #Kuwait #Europe #SuezCanal #BeltandRoadInitiative

Could Lebanese-Syrian relations move past Assad, Hezbollah era? Analysis: Amid regional turmoil from Israeli expansionism, will the new governments in Syria and Lebanon manage to overcome historic divisions and start fresh?

After returning from #Iraq and #Lebanon, where I gained some insight into some regional perspectives on post-Assad #Syria, I wrote this @newarab.com.web.brid.gy about the future of Lebanon-Syria relations. www.newarab.com/analysis/cou...

How Turkey is poised to be a key player in Syria's next chapter Analysis: From revamping the economy to political, military, and bureaucratic capacity building, Turkey will have a key influence in shaping the new Syria.

My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social piece is about the future of #Syria-#Turkey relations. This piece quotes @aronlund.bsky.social, @carolinerose8.bsky.social, Qutaiba Idlbi, and Mustafa Caner. www.newarab.com/analysis/how...

Oil dollars and weapons sales mean Trump needs Saudi Arabia more than ever Inside Trump and Saudi Arabia's 'unashamedly transactional' relationship

Quoted here by @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social alongside @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, Neil Quilliam, and Amb. Patrick Theros on the limits of the U.S.-Saudi 'bromance' -- like his first term, the two do not have the same strategic interests, especially on oil prices.

What to expect from Trump 2.0's Middle East policy Analysis: Trump's administration is divided between hawkish neocons and 'restrainers', but which group will have the most influence on US Middle East policy?

Writing for @thenewarab.bsky.social today, @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social analyzes Middle East policy in the second Trump administration. He quotes me, @thomasjuneau.bsky.social, @tparsi.bsky.social, @shadihamid.bsky.social, Neil Quilliam, and Ferial Saeed.

www.newarab.com/analysis/wha...

Trump wants an Israel-Saudi normalisation deal. Will he get one? Analysis: Trump is eyeing the grand prize of Israel-Saudi normalisation, but after the Gaza war and shifting regional dynamics, the chances are remote.

My latest @thenewarab.bsky.social article is about Trump's desire to see #Israel and #SaudiArabia normalize. This piece quotes Aziz Alghashian, Nabeel Khoury, Annelle Sheline, Kenneth Katzman, and Charles Dunne.

www.newarab.com/analysis/tru...

Why the UAE approaches the new Syria with caution The new Syrian administration’s Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani, Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, and intelligence chief Anas Khattab last week paid their first official visit to the United Arab ...

My latest @amwajmedia.bsky.social article analyzes the #UAE's cautious approach to post-Assad #Syria. Featuring quotes from Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, Courtney Freer, Neil Quilliam, and Hamdullah Baycar. amwaj.media/article/why-...

China Will Approach Post-Assad Syria With Caution China never intervened military in Syria, but it did support the Assad regime in other ways. After Assad’s fall, China faces a complicated dilemma.

#China Will Approach Post-Assad #Syria With Caution

Many thanks to @wpr.bsky.social for publishing my latest article.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/china-syria-...

Syrian Regime Change: The View from Oman The abrupt end of 61 years of Baathist rule in Syria on December 8 caught the Gulf states by surprise. Both governments and citizens of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members did not foresee the S...

My latest analysis for the @arab-center-dc.bsky.social is about #Oman's perspective on post-Assad #Syria. arabcenterdc.org/resource/syr...

A new axis: Syria and Ukraine unite after Assad's fall The two countries share a goal of weakening Russia, and considering a partnership that spans diplomacy, military, and trade.

My latest TRT World article is about #Ukraine's relationship with post-Assad #Syria. This piece quotes Ferial Saeed and Wolfgang Pusztai.

www.trtworld.com/magazine/a-n...

What role will Gulf states play in post-Assad Syria? Analysis: The first three countries visited by Syria's new foreign minister were all GCC members, speaking to the Gulf's importance to Syria's future.

What role will #Gulf states play in post-Assad #Syria? Check out my latest @thenewarab.bsky.social piece, featuring quotes from @ibish.bsky.social, @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, Anna Jacobs, and Qutaiba Idlbi. www.newarab.com/analysis/wha...

Russian Support for Yemen’s Houthi Movement - Gulf International Forum In light of the Syrian regime’s fall earlier this month and the weakening of Hezbollah at the hands of Israel’s military between September and November,...

Many thanks to Gulf International Forum for publishing my latest article, which analyzes #Russia's relationship with #Yemen's Houthi rebel movement. gulfif.org/russian-supp...

The key trends set to shape the Middle East in 2025 Analysis: Post-Assad Syria, Iran-Israel hostilities, Palestine, and an unpredictable Trump administration will be key factors in reshaping the region in 2025.

The key trends set to shape the Middle East in 2025. Check out my latest @thenewarab.bsky.social article, featuring comments from @carolinerose8.bsky.social, Veena Ali-Khan, Ali Bakir, Erwin van Veen, Osama al-Sharif, and Francesco Salesio Schiavi.

www.newarab.com/analysis/key...

Why Bahrain is considering future in BRICS+ The foreign policy of Bahrain frequently follows in the footsteps of Abu Dhabi’s leadership. As the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has become the first Gulf Arab state to accede to the BRICS+ group of cou...

Why #Bahrain is considering future in #BRICS+

My latest @amwajmedia.bsky.social piece, featuring comments from @ryanbohl.bsky.social, Ali Bakir, Abdulla Aljunaid, and Narayanappa Janardhan. amwaj.media/article/cons...

Qatar’s position in post-Assad Syria : Peoples Dispatch How the Gulf country is maneuvering today has much to do with its desire to maintain its position as a middleman between the region and the West.

I was in #Qatar attending the #DohaForum when news broke about the #Assad government's fall. That was an interesting time to be in #Doha meeting with many Syrians. This piece I wrote for Peoples Dispatch analyzes Qatar's potential role in post-Assad #Syria. peoplesdispatch.org/2024/12/21/q...

Amid regional setbacks, how Iran and Saudi Arabia kept the peace in 2024 Driven by self interest and external factors, the two nations maintained their detente this year - despite fluid situations in Gaza and Syria.

My latest TRT World article is about how the #Iran-#SaudiArabia detente fared in 2024 with a look at what is in store for this relationship next year. www.trtworld.com/magazine/ami...