Nicole Grajewski

It is unclear what all of this means for Iran’s future nuclear trajectory but I’d be cautious about arguments that suggest a rapid dash to a nuclear weapon or a complete abandonment of nuclear ambitions after the war. It is too early to tell.

The fate of the Islamic Republic as we know it and, by extension, its nuclear program is unknown. But after the war, regime survival and internal power consolidation will matter far more than any past policies or any inherited fatwa — regardless of who assumes power.

With Khamenei gone, Tehran lacks a clear successor and the system is entering uncharted territory. His centralized grip over nuclear policy leaves a vacuum that could spur institutional jockeying.

The idea of so-called “heroic flexibility” (نرمش قهرمانانه) fits the same pattern. It did not mean rapprochement with Washington. It meant tactical maneuvering to preserve the regime while relieving pressure, essentially negotiation without ideological concession.

While many attribute Iran’s abstention from building nuclear weapons to Khamenei’s fatwa, it reflected political calculation and, to some extent, indecision. It served regime interests in crisis management, not a firm internal prohibition on weaponization.

The fatwa’s political function arguably outweighs its jurisprudential weight. It was showcased repeatedly in international forums to reassure interlocutors that Iran will not weaponize. It was more directed to international audiences than an unbreakable internal constraint.

Khamenei’s oft-cited fatwa against nuclear weapons exists, but its strength and scope are contested. At times, he forbade development, stockpiling, and use. Other times, he spoke more narrowly about use, not production — leaving space for reinterpretation.

Khamenei had ultimate authority on whether Iran engaged internationally, how it advanced enrichment, and how it dealt with the U.S. and nuclear diplomacy. He also had authority over Iran’s past covert efforts at weaponization.

Iran’s nuclear program under Ayatollah Khamenei was never just a technical initiative — it was political, ideological, and tightly controlled by the Supreme Leader. 🧵

💭 Iran at War: The Russian Angle

A major war against #Iran raises urgent questions about Russia’s role in the Middle East.

@hannanotte.bsky.social and @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
assess the broader implications.

Register:
zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Israel and the US strike Iran. It is a tragedy of Tehran's own making Iran's strategy rested on the critical assumption that the US administration preferred a deal to a war. That proved fatal on Saturday.

In a new opinion piece, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social argues that Iran's nuclear strategy rested on the critical assumption that the US administration preferred a deal to a war.

Israel and the US strike Iran. It is a tragedy of Tehran's own making Iran's strategy rested on the critical assumption that the US administration preferred a deal to a war. That proved fatal on Saturday.

Fantastic analysis by @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social!

thebulletin.org/2026/02/isra...

If you have time to read only one thing on today’s strikes, make it @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social ‘s analysis in @thebulletin.org .

U.S. Aims in Iran Extend Beyond Nuclear Issues Because of this, the costs and risks of an attack merit far more public scrutiny than they are receiving.

U.S. Aims in Iran Extend Beyond Nuclear Issues

Because of this, the costs and risks of an attack merit far more public scrutiny than they are receiving.
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social

carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

MTA Associate @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social delivers a sharp analysis showing why U.S. strikes on Iran have not resolved the core nuclear challenge Read her article here: carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

"The kind of build up we’re seeing today is not commensurate with the goals they have in terms of nonproliferation."

Former Nuclear Futures Fellow @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social providing expertise to @cnn.com.

Iran agreed secret shoulder-fired missile deal with Russia Leaks reveal €500mn contract for man-portable ‘Verba’ system to rebuild Tehran’s air defences

"Iran agreed a secret €500mn arms deal with Russia to acquire thousands of advanced shoulder-fired missiles in its most significant effort to rebuild air defences shattered during last year’s war with Israel." www.ft.com/content/d034...

My comments on CNN about the impact of additional military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program

Farewell to Arms Control Russia and New START Expiration

Quick thoughts on Russia's potential response to the expiration of New START axesandatoms.substack.com/p/farewell-t...

It is really a privilege to join Sciences Po and an honor to be part of such a distinguished institution, looking forward to continuing my work on Russia and Iran as well as teaching here.

Are nuclear issues at the heart of the Russia-Iran relationship? Interview with Nicole Grajewsi

As some of you already know, I recently moved to Paris for a tenure-track Assistant Professor position at @ceri-sciencespo.bsky.social @sciencespo.bsky.social. Here is a recent interview I did on my research agenda and background. www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/en/news...

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Great news! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is now #OpenAccess so that everyone can read it online. Thanks to generous support from @mitpress.bsky.social Direct to Open (D20). @managingtheatom.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social

Check it out here:
doi.org/10.7551/mitp...

My recent piece on how Russia supports Iran’s repression.

Book cover of ‘Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine’ by Nicole Grajewski showing red and blue geometric shapes representing Russia at the top of the cover (above the word ‘Russia’), and green, red and black geometric shapes representing Iran at the bottom of the cover (underneath the word ‘Iran’). The background of the book mockup is grey.

Forthcoming in March from @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social ⬇️

Drawing on extensive Russian and Persian primary sources and interviews with elites from both countries, ‘Russia and Iran’ is the definitive account of contemporary relations between the two countries.

Pre-order ➡️ tinyurl.com/46cz227j

The Quiet Of The Kremlin: Upheaval In Iran, Venezuela Gets A Muted Moscow Response You might think a cascade of allies being destabilized or imploding would prompt a more robust response in Moscow. But the less-than-thundering public statements from Russian officials – not to mentio...

“If Iran falls, for Russia this isn't just a humiliation, it's probably the last holdout of authoritarian countries that align with them…that isn’t North Korea.”
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
www.rferl.org/a/russia-ira...

‘Authoritarian learning’ What do the Iran protests mean for Russia? Meduza asks expert Nicole Grajewski. — Meduza Russia is once again watching one of its allies slide into crisis. Over the past several weeks, mass anti-government protests have erupted across Iran, in what many experts describe as the most…

As mass protests shake Iran, Russia is once again watching one of its allies slide into crisis. Meduza spoke with expert @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social about what the Kremlin is prepared to do for Tehran — and what it stands to lose.
meduza.io/en/feature/2...

Activists say Iran has aired at least 97 coerced confessions from protesters, often after torture Iranian state media has aired at least 97 confessions from protesters since Dec. 28, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency. The U.S.

Activists say #Iran has aired at least 97 coerced confessions from protesters, often after torture - @apnews.com's Melanie Lidman reports apnews.com/article/iran...

After a bruising year, Tehran is recalibrating. What comes next may matter more than what just happened. Afshon Ostovar (@osto.bsky.social), Behnam Ben Taleblu, and @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social explore what Iran faces in the year ahead. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/episode/the-...

North Korea ‘has fired ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan’ South Korea’s military report projectile launch, which follows Kim Jong-un calling for doubling of output of tactical guided weapons North Korea has fired a ballistic missile towards the sea off its east coast, according to South Korea’s military leaders. The South Korean joint chiefs of staff said: “The North has launched an unidentified ballistic missile toward the East Sea,” referring to the body of water also known as the Sea of Japan. Continue reading...

North Korea ‘has fired ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan’

This reassessment is now driving Israeli threat perceptions. But strikes can disrupt, not deny. Iran’s ability to regenerate missile forces within months risks locking both sides into a recurring cycle of Israeli attacks followed by rapid Iranian retaliation/ reconstruction.