FleetingBits

absolute banger from chatgpt while discussing thus spoke zarathustra and asi

i have a strange mixed feeling on it; i prefer not writing code and honestly have only hand written one line of code in the last year; but i find i often don’t understand the internals anymore

the openai and anthropic funding rounds are cool but the whole ai buildout is being funded by hyperscaler debt

these raises are just a fraction of the total spend

and ceos are always in a bargaining position with their executives and so will want to give them what they want and it's easier to delegate to them then find someone new and incorporate them into the exec team / find someone who fits

becoming multi-product is a somewhat special issue; executives don't want to cede control over the new product to a new org, since it is exciting and high visibility

but, they don't really get judged on the results because the existing product matters more to the valuation

companies often fail to become multi-product because they don't split off a team working on a new product into a separate org

so, you end up with cross-functional meetings rather than anyone committed to building anything

dario was able to lead a revolt of the entire language team at openai under sam altman's nose; and sam is the ultimate operator

should be thought about when thinking about his capabilities and ambitions

so nvidia wants to normalize novel architectures for which the existing asics don’t work

almost all strange llm behavior that you read about on social media can be explained by reading the prompts

this is about moltbook

anthropic’s decision to focus on b2b will do more for the long term alignment of the company and its models than any constitution, hiring decision or governance structure

every ai paper you read is a little compute that you got for free

welcome to genie 3; it's buggy and somewhat unusable; but, when this really works, it will be incredible, it will feel like chatgpt in early 2023

one of the great things about llms is the almost all the documents that your colleagues send you are much better now

not yet : X

ya we talked about it in person

models will be trained to call fork() on their running context window and environment if they are not already

so, openai and anthropic both predict that they will have 70%+ gross margins in 2029

this seems very difficult unless they end up sorting into natural monopolies and become less competitive

can you give an example?

yeah I agree with this, originally it seemed almost like a funding pitch

the main difference between the twitter algo and the bsky algo is that bsky doesn't reward the current thing as much

so, niche posts are more likely to be read on here, while stuff about the big news story is likely to be read on twitter

16) so, i think that this is going to be a big part of openai and google's revenue story over the next 5 years and is a market that will have a lot of societal impact

15) 4% of us consumer spend is $700b, about 4x the size of the total advertisement market, which might be a way to think about how much more valuable the shopping agents market could be than traditional advertising

14) i can see shopping agents changing this though, where openai makes money directly on commissions, like their 4% commission deal for merchants with shopify, since attribution is very easy

13) tiktok was considered test even after they had been operating for a few years and had a substantial user base

12) the revenue might take a while to ramp up though, advertisers typically spend 5%-10% of their budgets on test and only commit hard on platforms with strong records

11) they have recruited a sales team and have initially pitched existing enterprise customers; one issue is that they don't have granular conversion information at this point but i'm sure that they will build this out

10) anyway, open ai has said they want to make $2/user/year by eoy 2026 (but over their 900m world wide wau) and $15/user/year by eoy 2027, which is another way to think about it