Jeff Carter

One of the Trump admin’s explanations for striking Iran—preemption of an imminent attack—put me in mind of my article w/@yujimasumura.bsky.social at @ajpseditor.bsky.social, which examines when govts use the preemption casus belli and how publics react. (1/x)

doi.org/10.1111/ajps...

A few more thoughts. USFP/natsec usually works from bottom up, even for prez-directed policies. Bureaucrats, mid-levels, political appointees work the problem, then top people bless it. Diplomacy (JCPOA) works like this. Military planning can move faster w/ prior plans, but similar. 1/

Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him? Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him? Congress, public opinion, and administration insiders aren’t reliable constraints on Trump’s foreign policy decisions.

Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/

Leader specifi c punishments enable the citizens of a nation to avoid punishment by simply replacing their leader if she cheats. Whether the citizens choose to do so, however, depends upon domestic political institutions and in particular how these institutions shape the cost of replacing a leader. If the value of restored cooperation exceeds the cost of leader replacement, then the citizens depose their leader if she cheats. Under institutional arrangements that make it diffi cult to replace leaders, however, the benefi ts of restored cooperation are too small to justify the high cost of leader replacement.

From the introduction of McGillivray and Smith (2008, page 4):

I attended the first Po-boy Preservation Festival in New Orleans a number of years ago. I overheard a son tell his father how good his po-boy was. The father responded, "That's right. And you remember this the next time a friend of yours wants to go to Subway." Dad was right.

Why Underachievers Dominate Secret Police Organizations: Evidence from Autocratic Argentina Adam Scharpf Christian Gläßel Abstract: Autocrats depend on a capable secret police. Anecdotal evidence, however, often characterizes agents as surprisingly mediocre in skill and intellect. To explain this puzzle, this article focuses on the career incentives underachieving individuals face in the regular security apparatus. Low-performing officials in hierarchical organizations have little chance of being promoted or filling lucrative positions. To salvage their careers, these officials are willing to undertake burdensome secret police work. Using data on all 4,287 officers who served in autocratic Argentina (1975-83), we study biographic differences between secret police agents and the entire recruitment pool. We find that low-achieving officers were stuck within the regime hierarchy, threatened with discharge, and thus more likely to join the secret police for future benefits. The study demonstrates how state bureaucracies breed mundane career concerns that produce willing enforcers and cement violent regimes. This has implications for the understanding of autocratic consolidation and democratic breakdown.

Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers

“We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.”

(Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)

Here is a thread about a true police-shooting incident that I'm going to use to pose a fun little thought problem for anyone anywhere who think there ia a single justifiable reason to ever allow a law enforcement officer to use force on a citizen and remain anonymous. From my back pages:

"Loss Framing in Territorial Disputes" by Andi Zhou, Hein Goemans, and Michael Weintraub. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Can state-building disrupt rather than stabilize society? Thrilled to have a new article in @apsrjournal.bsky.social w/ @mikealbertus.bsky.social showing that the expansion of state communication networks spurred rebellion for decades in France before the Revolution.

👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
🧵1/7

Wrote up this thread for @goodauth.bsky.social (thanks as always to the amazing editorial team!). goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...

it's crazy that 500 years ago, you would see the ruler of your country maybe once in your life and hear whispers that they're the Sun God, but now with social media, you get to see on a daily basis that they're the most unhinged, idiotic, and unhappy person you know

There is growing interest in HPE about social conflict in the run-up to the French Revolution.

In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789)

👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc....
👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

🧵1/6

If the government won't bail out my crypto losses, I'm going to become an even bigger libertarian.

👇 Not only is this true, it is literally the only non-revolutionary path to a political transition. There is no option for a regime change where your only allies are the people who always shared your values!

👋 I'm Danielle, and I'm on the #econjobmarket this year!

Let's start with a student describing her segregated school:

"The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education"

The twist? The student is white, and her school is private.

A JMP 🧵 -->

a man in a suit and tie is saying fix this . ALT: a man in a suit and tie is saying fix this .

(This also reminds us of the need to introduce some more consistent version-numbering rules, which we'll do in the not-too-distant future.)

We've introduced a minor update to COW's State System Membership Data, updating the coverage through 2024 and making available "blank" dyad-year and directed dyad-year data sets, in addition to the traditional state-year data.

correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/st...

ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...

The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.

New data, data nerds!

He also made Bob Lighthizer his Deputy USTR & created incredible new forms of protectionism ("voluntary export restraints") during a trade war with 🇯🇵 that Trump has used as his model for how to approach trade with 🇨🇳 today. Please, let's stop it with the Reagan was a Paladin of Free Trade stuff.

Student media rules. They are lapping a lot of the spineless media orgs this year and showing how solidarity is the way.

Not at the moment. I’d suggest you reach out to the data hosts for more information. Their contact information is on the website.

If you aren't failing you aren't trying. Grad students and new faculty: the most prolific scholars are also the most prolific at getting rejected. Rejections suck but they are a big part of the publication process.

There is. The war data hosts are working on updating their data sets.

Call for Proposals! APSA R&P is accepting proposals for small grant awards of up to $2,500 for research on R&P. Proposals may address any topic of theoretical, empirical, and practical significance for the study of religion and politics. Apply here: bit.ly/4gRt4py

Announcing the barest of web redesigns at correlatesofwar.org. Look on our new logo, ye mighty, and despair.

Why don't you continue the momentum from APSA and present your work at JAWS? We are still taking submissions!

docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

From Jan–July 2025, U.S. musical instrument exports are 8.4% below the 2021–24 avg.

Brazil (-28%), China (-27%), Italy (-23%), and Canada (-12%) saw sharpest Y-o-Y drops.

Why?
NOT retaliation (ex-China)

- Higher input costs
- Global economic uncertainty
- Consumer substitution away from brands

Tenure-Track Assistant Professor in Political Science The individual hired in this position will contribute to the curriculum of lower and upper-level undergraduate courses, and graduate courses based on their area of expertise and program needs. The tea...

We are hiring in American Politics! While some areas are listed as preferences, we are open to a wide variety of specializations. I am happy to answer any questions you might have about the position. Please circulate in your networks.
appstate.peopleadmin.com/postings/50925

Apocalypse Now, famously a movie about how war is awesome and always turns out well