Your weather app is wrong about next week. It's going to be hot. Very hot, even in the city.
Meteorologists > weather apps
More of these advisories are coming, including for the Bay Area.
Interesting!
The next few months will tell us a lot.
If the subsurface warmth continues to spread and the atmosphere couples with the ocean, confidence in El Niño will increase.
If that process stalls, the outlook could shift again. (12/12)
The current behavior of the Pacific suggests this year might be different.
The sub-surface temp anomalies are stronger and wind anomalies are not focused on the equator.
That leads to warming off South America first, which is what happened in the strong El Nino years of 82/83 and 97/98. (10/x)
Regardless, there’s also been some debate about what this could mean for California.
Some have emphasized that one seasonal model signal doesn’t translate directly into a California precipitation forecast.
Case in point, the strong El Niño of 2015/16 had a split precip outcome in CA. (8/x)🧵
The most bullish El Niño outlook comes from the ECMWF ensemble.
Recent upgrades to data assimilation capabilities are helping the model overcome some of the uncertainty caused by the spring predictability barrier.
The model has already captured the oceans momentum towards an El Niño. (8/X)🧵
Another reason for NOAA's caution is something called the spring predictability barrier.
ENSO forecasts issued in March and April historically have lower skill, because the ocean-atmosphere system is transitioning between seasonal states. (7/x) 🧵
That spread is why NOAA’s outlook still treats event strength as highly uncertain.
But looking "under the hood", the probability of a significant El Nino forming rising. (6/x)🧵
But there is still significant spread in the model guidance.
But more than half of the major ENSO models show a moderate to strong El Nino by the end of the year. (5/x)🧵
Image credit @hausfath.bsky.social
That subsurface warmth matters because El Niño events often begin with eastward propagation of warm water beneath the surface.
If that heat continues to surface and the atmosphere responds, it can accelerate the transition toward El Niño conditions later this year. (4/x)🧵
So why have forecasts warmed in recent weeks?
The biggest change has been below the surface of the Pacific.
A large reservoir of warm water has developed along the equatorial thermocline, increasing the upper-ocean heat content that can fuel El Niño development later this year. (3/x) 🧵
First, the basics.
The Pacific is still technically in La Niña conditions, but the event has been weakening and will likely be done within a few weeks.
All of the updated major ENSO outlooks now favor a transition to ENSO-neutral this spring and El Niño conditions emerging by summer. (2/x)🧵
There’s been a lot of discussion about the Pacific and the possibility of strong El Niño returning later this year.
NOAA’s updated ENSO outlook dropped this morning, and combined with the recent ECMWF and NNME outlooks, we've got a more solid picture. (1/x)🧵
It feels like we've had a bit of a reprieve in the past few days. But conditions remain ripe for a bad allergy season to continue for many more weeks.
By some measures, this season's conditions are nearly the worst on record!
The signal is getting harder to ignore.
A strong to very strong El Niño could be in the works by the end of the summer.
Been a pleasure working with Esther! Good luck in Boston!
Hello! Are you still doing measurements?
Also, I worried a bit writing this definitely about no rain in CA for the first half of March. But trustworthy guidance backs it up.
Sure, it's ridiculously hot in the southwest right now. But apparently, relief is coming next week.
Warm everywhere you look in the Bay Area today. 70s and 80s for all! A bit muggy as well. @sfchronicle.com
Wow. Quite the hot day in California. 91º in LA and 96º in Anaheim! And oh yeah, 101º in Riverside county, which is the hottest February temperature ever for the state.
No need to carry any layers today!
Summer is coming. Laredo Texas with the first 100 degree reading for the country this year.
Europe is baking again. #whiplash
Surprise! San Francisco hit 70 degrees today. Second 70 degree reading of the year.
On that second point.
The rain has finally arrived. Showers through about midnight. Totals will be pretty light.
And then, who knows when it rains again?🙄
