Efe Tokdemir

Do sanction threats work? We find that threats—even if credibly backed—do not increase support for concessions in the target public (Turkiye case). Plus, positive inducements provoke backlash in some groups, highlighting coercive diplomacy’s limits

Check out our research note: shrturl.app/3l4wWJ

Don’t forget to add our forum article into your reading list:

www.allazimuth.com/2024/11/25/f...

Our latest issue is now available! Check it out👇

www.allazimuth.com/issues/

Saldırı ABD-İran nükleer görüşmeleriyle kesişti, ABD kamuoyu ve Trump da görüşmelerin olumlu sonuçlanabileceği düşüncesi vardı. ABD açıktan İsrail’e karşı çıkmaz, ama Trump’ın uzayan süreçlere ve alternatif planlara tahammülsüzlüğü ise bilindik.Rubio “tek taraflı” açıklamaları buradan okunmalı

Publication Alert – Our latest article titled, "All Azimuth Debate: Gradual Reform or Revolution? Pathways to Global IR," by
@aysezarakol.bsky.social l and Ersel Aydınlı is now online !

www.allazimuth.com/2025/02/06/a...

Had a great time giving a guest talk at University of Washington International Security Colloquium. Grateful for kind invitation, insightful discussion, awesome Seattle weather. Big thanks to the Dept of Polisci and @aslicansunar.bsky.social for hosting me at the campus 🙏

Çok tebrikler!!!

Indian accounts plugged into BJP on other site saying possibly ~25 dead. very very much TBD, but targeting of tourists, possible death toll, Vance visit, relative calm prior all suggest a potential crisis moment:

Prof. Dr. Fuat Keyman’ı anmak ve onun akademi ve düşünce dünyasına değerli katkılarını hatırlamak için 15-16 Mayıs'ta "Prof. Dr. Fuat Keyman: Bilimin İzinde Bir Ömür" anma toplantısını düzenlenecektir.
Program detayları, ilerleyen günlerde tüm sosyal medya hesaplarımızdan paylaşılacaktır.

Since my graduation back in 2017, I was in @bingpolisci.bsky.social for the first time as a guest speaker. A great audience with tough questions as always.

It was really good to be back home, and walk through the corridors of the department once again. Truly thankful for their invitation…

Glad to be part of “What do we know about Terrorism” edited volume. Truly learned a lot from my colleagues during the workshop! Thanks @brianjphillips.bsky.social and @sbmitche.bsky.social for leading and ırganizing such a great initiative

Przeworski (1991) demokrasileri bugünün kaybedenlerinin yarın kazanma ihtimaline sahip olduğu rejimler olarak tanımlar. Muhaliflerin kazanma ihtimallerinin yok edildiğini, kazanma şanslarının olmadığını düşündüğü bir ortamda demokrasiden bahsedilemez. Yaşasın demokrasi!

Here are the list of articles in the special issue. We thank all of the authors for their valuable contribution to our initiative🌞

The Global Perspectives on Science, Polarization, and Populism Special Issue we co-edited with Erik C. Nisbet is out in the International Journal of Public Opinion Research. Here is the link to our Introduction chapter: academic.oup.com/ijpor/articl...

📈 Trending in BJPIR this week

'Enforcement of international human rights law: A comparative exploration of alternative public opinion channels' A Burcu Bayram, Eric Keels & @efetokdemir.bsky.social

🔓 Read the article available in #OpenAccess here: buff.ly/4hGnS7l

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social

Bonus: PKK-leader's address does not mention any other offshoots of PKK - such as YPG/PYD operating in Syria. PKK was not very active in last 2-3 years, and most of their members had already joined the ranks of YPG/PYD. So, we should not read this call as end of the conflict per se.

Sure, the whole story is way more nuanced, this is just some updates in bullet points for those who are not an ardent follower of Turkish politics and Turkiye-PKK conflict - which is one of the longest and deadliest in the world

Domestic: need for a constitutional change for reelection of Erdogan, then need for support of Kurds. International: Once Kurds in N. Iraq emerging as a separate entity, and now it is the Northern Syria - Turkiye repositioning itself regarding the upcoming developments for Middle Eastern Politics

7) Main difference between two attempts: ultra-nationalist party was anti-Kurdish peace process back then, but pro-peace process this time. This is critical regarding the electoral politics.
8) Why now? Well, this is to speculate with some known facts regarding domestic and international politics:

4) Back in 2013, Ocalan made a similar declaration asking PKK to lay down the arms and engage in politics
5) The first process halted following PKK attacks after a non-violent period
6) Some argued that the end of process was also related to incumbent government's electoral failure on June 2015

An update from Türkiye for peace/conflict scholars:
1) Imprisoned PKK leader Ocalan called for disband and disarmament of PKK
2) The process was initiated by the leader of ultra-nationalist party, Bahceli, on October 2024,
3) Not the first public attempt, the last one took place some time ago

📈 Trending in BJPIR

'Enforcement of international human rights law: A comparative exploration of alternative public opinion channels' A Burcu Bayram, Eric Keels & @efetokdemir.bsky.social

🔓 Read the article available in #OpenAccess here: https://buff.ly/4hGnS7l

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social

Unique offerings: Ideological competition and rebel governance - Seden Akcinaroglu, Jeremy Berkowitz, Carlos E. Moreno Leon, Sema Hande Ogutcu-Fu, Evgeny Sedashov, Efe Tokdemir, 2025 This study examines the factors influencing non-state armed actors’ (NSAAs) ability and willingness to implement rebel governance, with a focus on the group's i...

My coauthors and I have "unique offerings" for conflict scholars to explain the connection between ideology and rebel governance in this article. It is now online first @conflictmanagement.bsky.social

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Sabbatical year comes with benefits: visiting Uni. of Pittsburgh PoliSci was a great pleasure. I would like thank TASA for their invitation, and many colleagues, friends, and graduate students for their hospitality and substantial feedbacks!

@bjpir.bsky.social

Teşekkürler :)

Our article is online first now. Comparing public attitudes in USA, Germany & Türkiye, we show that public concerns over human rights violations in foreign countries are highly strategic, based on political alliances rather than legal context.

Access free thru:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Congrats Graig!

CALL FOR APPLICATIONS: CFPPR POST-DOCTORAL FELLOWSHIP Deadline: December 15, 2024 | CENTER for FOREIGN POLICY and PEACE RESEARCH

Reminder: We are seeking a post-doctoral fellow! Applications will be reviewed on a rolling basis until the position is filled, with a deadline of December 15. More details here:

www.foreignpolicyandpeace.org/index.php/en...

The forum article offers a platform to discuss the limits and prospects of international cooperation, the challenges of incorporating local knowledge, and the ways to overcome obstacles, by K.G.Cunningham, D.Aksoy, D.B.Carter, C.E.Loyle, S.Akcinaroglu, K.S.Gleditsch with E.Tokdemir and I.Kalin.