Great to have GPPi represented at Raisina Dialogue by @bressansar.bsky.social.
Here are some key take-aways.
Lots of opportunities for future-oriented cooperation -- and beefing up EU-India think tank ties and German/European EU India literacy.
If you want a detailed thread on Raisina dialogue, look no further - @bressansar.bsky.social has everything you need here:
🫶
It shall be known to future civilizations as the Hamster era
And you are right, kudos to ORF for avoiding one-sided, homogenous panels. I am eternally baffled that MSC and others in DE & Europe have such a hard time doing better on this.
(Actually, ORF invited @tluetkefend.bsky.social and me for the first time after reading Better Think Tanking!)
Thanks for the great points & nudge - added some of my observations here! bsky.app/profile/bres...
🇪🇺 EU diplomats in Asia say they see tons of positive visions that propel people forward in places like 🇮🇩 🇮🇳 & the Gulf, while Europeans are low-energy party poopers (visible on Rausina panels, „Things will only get worse“).
Futures work is key to turning that around. Let’s do more of it together?
Delhi‘s 🇮🇳 multi-vector balancing towards Europe was very clear in recent years, with large official 🇷🇺🇭🇺 presence at Raisina.
I guess next years will show to what extent 🇮🇳 keeps hedging or throws its weight behind reliable (I almost want to say rules-based 👀) partnerships that reduce volatility!
Not just 🇩🇪: India also self-censors in anticipatory disobedience vis-à-vis the U.S. 🇺🇸
Yes, Delhi 🇮🇳 has taken a massive hit last year. But colleagues continue to be surprised by the silence on so many topics where Delhi used to be more self-confident (decapitation strike, sinking an unarmed 🇮🇷 ship)
Sad so many from Africa, Americas, Asia had to cancel Raisina participation but great to share this reflection space with 🇪🇺 🇮🇳 colleagues @gesineweber.bsky.social @jpuglierin.bsky.social @almutm.bsky.social @nicolange.bsky.social @helenalegarda.bsky.social Garima Mohan, Shruti Pandalai &many more
Delhi‘s 🇮🇳 multi-vector balancing towards Europe was very clear in recent years, with large official 🇷🇺🇭🇺 presence at Raisina.
I guess next years will show to what extent 🇮🇳 keeps hedging or throws its weight behind reliable (I almost want to say rules-based 👀) partnerships that reduce volatility!
By the way, the India-Israel 🇮🇳 🇮🇱 relationship is thriving. Lots of Israelis travel to India as a relatively safe haven in an otherwise hostile part of the world (not a new development). The government-level relationship is a crucial part of India‘s evolving balancing act.
By the way, regarding lack of trust, I asked some countries traditionally very involved in confidence building measures why they’re not working on this, as it’s more needed then ever.
The answer?
We‘re too busy with ourselves in this volatile reality.
😣
🇪🇺 EU diplomats in Asia say they see tons of positive visions that propel people forward in places like 🇮🇩 🇮🇳 & the Gulf, while Europeans are low-energy party poopers (visible on Rausina panels, „Things will only get worse“).
Futures work is key to turning that around. Let’s do more of it together?
While many newcomers to Raisina may have picked up an important 🇮🇳 history book or two (great!), emphasizing shared civilizational legacy clearly risks losing the future out of sight, especially in foreign policy circles. This will eventually backfire.
„Strategic autonomy“ is the term many in Delhi 🇮🇳 use (👋 🇫🇷). Lots of joint work on how to do this in today’s world of eroded trust and unpredictability remains.
Strategic foresight could get us a long way, as interventions from @florencegaub.bsky.social at the conference have shown, and:
Also visible in Delhi 🇮🇳: Narcissistic foreign policy continues to be costly, until we learn how to outsmart it.
Here’s some advice @sofielillistoffel.bsky.social gppi.net/2025/10/12/w...
Not just 🇩🇪: India also self-censors in anticipatory disobedience vis-à-vis the U.S. 🇺🇸
Yes, Delhi 🇮🇳 has taken a massive hit last year. But colleagues continue to be surprised by the silence on so many topics where Delhi used to be more self-confident (decapitation strike, sinking an unarmed 🇮🇷 ship)
Relatedly, erosion of trust in the international system is still under-appreciated as a variable that explains so much.
E.g. People look for reasons why Iran 🇮🇷 didn’t settle with the US 🇺🇸. How much of this is international relations 101, you need a minimum of trust and who trusts D.C. these days?
Visible from Delhi 🇮🇳:
Brussels‘ 🇪🇺 greatest asset is predictability, imperfect but definitely relative to most other parts of the world.
The cost of volatility is immense and increasing (🇺🇸, 🇷🇺)
During my third Raisina dialogue in Delhi 🇮🇳, a few things stood out:
- The EU-India relationship is real & more than the result of a hostile geopolitical environment. India needed to be courted for a couple of years but Brussels has done its homework.
In unserem neuen Beitrag für @projecttogether.bsky.social argumentieren @bressansar.bsky.social & ich, dass strategische Vorausschau hier Abhilfe schaffen kann. Richtig eingesetzt, wirkt sie wie angewandte Psychologie, strukturiert Unsicherheit & erweitert den Möglichkeitsraum politischen Handelns.
out and biking like nobody’s business 🚲🚲🚲
Was hat Psychologie mit demokratischer Resilienz und Staatsreform zu tun?
Stress verändert, wie wir denken.
Er verengt unseren Blick, verstärkt den Status-quo-Bias und lässt uns an Routinen festhalten – selbst dann, wenn die Situation das eigentlich nicht mehr erlaubt.
Scenario Booklet is Out!
📚Foreign Malign Influence in the WB & EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood – 6 Scenarios for 2035 @gppi.bsky.social
The scenarios build on expert surveys about critical uncertainties & underrated future threats
🌐Read here reunir-horizon.eu/foreign-mali...
@horizoneu.bsky.social
⬇️ Following up with our scenario booklet, we are happy to share our next publication:
📚 𝐀𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐄𝐔 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬
🌐 Read here reunir-horizon.eu/d7-1-anticip...
@horizoneu.bsky.social @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social
#REUNIR #Foresight #EU
🎙️ @sicherheitspod.de #103 ist da. Wir reden über Macht, warum Macht eine neue (alte) Rolle spielt und inwiefern Europa (noch) vergleichsweise machtlos ist. Im zweiten Teil erklärt uns @sofielillistoffel.bsky.social, warum "Narzissmus" eine hilfreiche analytische Linse mit Blick auf die USA bietet.
Warum psychologische Ansätze wie Narzissmus helfen können, 🇩🇪🇪🇺 Außenpolitik strategischer zu machen und aus veralteten Denkmustern auszubrechen (plus Top 3 Dos and Dont’s für den Umgang mit den Trump-USA):
... moderator @bressansar.bsky.social for sharp insights on resilience and hybrid threats and outlook. /2
#EUenlargement #Resilience #HybridThreats
🚨Happening Now
Future-Proofing EU Enlargement Against Foreign Malign Influence in the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Georgia&Moldova
This panel examines different approaches to hybrid threats & malign influences among candidate countries @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social @horizoneu.bsky.social
