Manuel Tonneau

Manuel Tonneau

@manueltonneau.bsky.social

PhD candidate @oiioxford.bsky.social NLP, Computational Social Science @WorldBank manueltonneau.com

752 Followers 559 Following 75 Posts Joined Sep 2023
22 hours ago
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WOAH is coming back for its 10th edition at EMNLP 2026 in Budapest! 🎊

For this important anniversary, we invite authors to critically reflect on our achievements as a community and adjust the aim going forward.

Stay tuned, more updates coming soon!

#EMNLP2026 #WOAH2026 #NLProc

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1 week ago

Thrilled to share that our paper has been accepted to FAccT! See you all in Montréal in June 🇨🇦

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1 week ago

Due to the high number of applicants we extended the deadline by one week to **March 8th**.

css2.lakecomoschool.org

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2 weeks ago
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Can feed algorithms shape what people think about politics? Our paper "The Political Effects of X's Feed Algorithm" is out today in Nature and answers "Yes."

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

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1 month ago
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🚨New WP "@Grok is this true?"
We analyze 1.6M factcheck requests on X (grok & Perplexity)
📌Usage is polarized, Grok users more likely to be Reps
📌BUT Rep posts rated as false more often—even by Grok
📌Bot agreement with factchecks is OK but not great; APIs match fact-checkers
osf.io/preprints/ps...

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1 month ago

Thanks also to @johnholbein1.bsky.social whose numerous posts on demographic probing in the social sciences inspired this work and to Matthew Kearney for the useful benchmark dataset.

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1 month ago
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Demographic Probing of Large Language Models Lacks Construct Validity Demographic probing is widely used to study how large language models (LLMs) adapt their behavior to signaled demographic attributes. This approach typically uses a single demographic cue in isolation...

Lots more info in the paper: arxiv.org/abs/2601.18486

I had a blast working on this with my wonderful coauthors @nsehgal.bsky.social Niyati, Victor, Ana Maria, Lakshmi, Sharath and @valentinhofmann.bsky.social

Feedback welcome!

@oii.ox.ac.uk

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1 month ago

Bottom line: LLM demographic probing lacks construct validity: it does not yield a stable characterization of how models condition on demographics.

We thus recommend using multiple, ecologically valid cues and controlling for confounders to make defensible claims on demographic effects in LLMs.

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1 month ago

Why does this happen?

We find that cues differ both in how strongly models associate them with demographic traits and in the non-demographic linguistic features they carry, such as readability or length, and that both independently affect model behavior.

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1 month ago
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Key result 2: Conclusions on demographic bias depend on how identity is operationalized.

Group disparities, estimated as outcome ratios between groups (e.g., Black vs. White), are unstable and vary in magnitude and even direction across cues.

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1 month ago
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Key result 1: Different cues signalling the same group do not lead to the same model behavior.

Cues intended to represent the same demographic group often induce only moderately correlated changes in model behavior.

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1 month ago
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We study demographic probing in realistic advice-seeking interactions: healthcare, salary, and legal advice, focusing on race and gender in a U.S. context across multiple LLMs.

Same prompts. Same tasks. Only the demographic cue signalling group membership changes.

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1 month ago
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Demographic cues (eg, names, dialect) are widely used to study how LLM behavior may change depending on user demographics. Such cues are often assumed interchangeable.

🚨 We show they are not: different cues yield different model behavior for the same group and different conclusions on LLM bias. 🧵👇

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1 month ago
Prix Viginum - Inria « Lutte contre les manipulations de l'information » - Sciencesconf.org Le Prix VIGINUM-Inria

Détection de coordination, détection de #deepfakes, biais et vulnérabilités des algorithmes de recommandation...

@viginum.bsky.social et #INRIA lancent un prix scientifique de lutte contre les manipulations de l'information.

👉 pvi-lmi.sciencescall.org

Deadline le 14/02.

#disinfo #FIMI

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1 month ago

Kudos to my wonderful co-authors Do Lee doqlee.github.io , Boris Sobol
il.linkedin.com/in/boris-sobol , @nirg.bsky.social and Sam Fraiberger samuelfraiberger.com.

@oii.ox.ac.uk @nyupress.bsky.social

11/fin

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1 month ago

Yet platform data-access policies increasingly block this potential. Whether platforms or regulators will enable change in the coming years is a core policy question.

10/N

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1 month ago

There is clear public value here, potentially extending to other countries, especially where official statistical systems are under-developed.

9/N

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1 month ago

Why this matters?

Beyond forecasting, this approach can provide early warnings, surface local labor market stress hidden by national averages, and help flag measurement issues in real time.

8/N

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1 month ago
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Key finding 3:

This also works at the state and city (!) level, including "holdout cities" where official UI numbers are sparse or irregularly updated.

As expected, accuracy scales with platform penetration and unemployment shocks.

7/N

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1 month ago
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Key finding 2:

Our approach consistently outperforms industry consensus forecasts and can improve predictions of US UI claims up to two weeks ahead of official releases.

That’s two weeks of additional lead time for policymakers.

6/N

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1 month ago
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Key finding 1:

Capturing linguistic diversity matters.

Training LLMs with active learning lets us detect many more ways people talk about job loss, producing a far more representative sample of unemployed users than existing approaches.

5/N

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1 month ago
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Multilingual Detection of Personal Employment Status on Twitter Manuel Tonneau, Dhaval Adjodah, Joao Palotti, Nir Grinberg, Samuel Fraiberger. Proceedings of the 60th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2022.

We combine JoblessBERT (an encoder LLM developed in previous work aclanthology.org/2022.acl-lon... which detects ~3× more employment-related content without sacrificing precision) with post-stratification using inferred demographics to correct for platform bias.

4/N

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1 month ago

So we ask a hard question economic actors and policymakers rightly worry about:

Can skewed social media data be turned into trustworthy indicators of unemployment?

Can we produce robust predictions across geography ✅, time ✅, demography ✅, and forecasting horizon ✅ ?

3/N

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1 month ago
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Why this matters:

In March 2020, weekly unemployment insurance claims jumped from 278K to nearly 6 million in two weeks.

As official data lagged, policymakers were flying blind about where the shock was hitting and who was being affected.

2/N

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1 month ago
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Can social media reliably estimate unemployment? Abstract. Digital trace data hold tremendous potential for measuring policy-relevant outcomes in real-time, yet its reliability is often questioned. Here,

🚨 New paper out in @pnasnexus.org

We show how skewed social media data can still be used to reliably estimate unemployment, not just nationally but down to the city level. 📈

doi.org/10.1093/pnas...

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2 months ago
Illustration of the official unemployment rate published in newspapers. Stock photo.

A transformer encoder-based classifier called JoblessBERT can identify posts about unemployment on social media, allowing researchers to predict US unemployment claims, up to two weeks in advance, at the national, state, and city levels. In PNAS Nexus: https://ow.ly/Zvi850XRa8I

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5 months ago
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Home - Somewhere On Earth Productions SOMEWHERE ON EARTH PRODUCTIONS: We are here to connect technology and business to people and new possibilities.

ICYMI: Listen to @manueltonneau.bsky.social @oii.ox.ac.uk's interview with the SOEP podcast talking about his new research into hate speech, online platforms and disparities in content moderation across different European countries. Available here: bit.ly/4ntsiRU

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5 months ago

🚨Hiring a fully funded (3.5 years) PhD for the @ldnsocmedobs.bsky.social to research social media and politics. Candidates should have quantitative/computational skills and/or be interested in content curation/moderation. UK home candidates only unfortunately. www.royalholloway.ac.uk/media/hquftp...

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5 months ago
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📣 New Preprint!
Have you ever wondered what the political content in LLM's training data is? What are the political opinions expressed? What is the proportion of left- vs right-leaning documents in the pre- and post-training data? Do they correlate with the political biases reflected in models?

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5 months ago
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Social media feeds today are optimized for engagement, often leading to misalignment between users' intentions and technology use.

In a new paper, we introduce Bonsai, a tool to create feeds based on stated preferences, rather than predicted engagement.

arxiv.org/abs/2509.10776

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