Dryfly

Ppl suggest UAE (Dubai) or Qatar but no way they are safe there if a victorious west demands they be turned over

And these ppl aren’t mentally prepared for a life on the run in jungles of South America or Africa

In today’s world - there is nowhere they would be safe. Not really. Not even ben China

Solovyov seems more unhinged than usual.

I have a feeling that all his rage is just to mask his fear. I think he is terrified.

There are worse places he could have gone besides Lefortovo… he could have ended up in the basement of the Lubyanka

Thing of beauty…

very mob boss like

My guess is the lower it to 15%

I mean that’s what junk bond traders do and sometimes it works out okay. Buy them cheap at high yield then if they cure either sell at a premium or ride the income stream into sunset

But who really thinks Russian bonds will cure?

You might want to dig into this w/ Darth Putin … there is a bigger story here (1) who buys these bonds / especially on secondary market and (2) where does the money come from and (3) why

It’s crazy

I could see buying risky bonds at huge discount then when ‘things get better’ sell them…

Result is similar but the way they do it different than in USSR - y/n?

USSR they just set a rate so deal w/ it. Today it’s a pretend or fake exchange - they control capital flow both domestic and foreign so tightly they ‘steer’ the exchange rate to where they want it but it’s not actually ‘pegged’

Never gets old

Looks like they are still
intervening…

Take a break - hug the kids - take the dog for a walk

Rag Stock circa 1978… been there done that

His worries about the ‘shadow economy’ is well placed. But it’s not the loss of revenue from a small increase in VAT … it’s the loss of control the state has over the economy from ppl abandoning official channels for the black market. Lose the economy and you lose the state

Metal skin on those things isn’t armor … it’s both fairly thin and soft, mostly 316 stainless

Won’t work against directional explosives w/ a mix of frag and incendiaries in warhead. Blow up on the cage but blast through directionally toward the process equipment underneath - rupture, spill and burn

Capital controls - NOTHING says failing economy quite like capital controls

Good job …

Why? Fuel issues in Russia?

If buying equipment from west or even China then getting equipment is a financial problem too. No wants rubles

If domestically sourced equipment it’s more of a capacity and capability problem - print the damn money

It might as well be zero if they are going to print

👇 Important

There is quite a lot of covid going around - might want to test for that if symptoms match up

I have been told by ppl w/ contacts there it’s happening - ppl are doing this - but like in USSR it’s not w/out challenges and risks

The problem w/ that is two fold (1) stuff you buy to hold value can easily be stolen (2) they still have to use ‘money’ for official purposes like paying mortgages, rents, loans etc … converting valuables back to rubles in a hurry can be challenging

A lot is anecdotal. The best metrics are efforts and statements from ‘state’ trying to stop it. In USSR it was both tolerated and suppressed. A necessity since official economy failing and at same time a direct threat to state control of population. We are just now starting to see state push back

I hate when I’m forced to agree with him. bsky.app/profile/patr...

it’s a lot like the ruble dollar exchange rate… if thinly traded and no real market and the central bank imposes stiff capital controls controls … the exchange rate is whatever the state wants it to be

and if interest rates go down the bonds banks currently hold go up in value - improving their capital balances on paper. Since these ‘assets’ aren’t really liquid they really don’t improve solvency but the banks are mostly state owned and regulators are ‘the state’ … it’s not going to be questioned