MJ

Delighted to welcome Dr. Songul Cinaroglu, Associate Professor of Health Care Management at Hacettepe University in Turkey, to our lab this year as a Fulbright Visiting Scholar.

The sad irony: funders want to include community members with no grant-writing background, but their applications are so demanding that even seasoned applicants struggle

What happens when research funding gets cut (not just a little, but a lot)? Try our simulator to find out.

Our model BRIDGE quantifies the impact of NIH budget cuts in the US, built on 47 datasets (1995-2024) and projecting effects over 25 years.

mj-lab.mgh.harvard.edu/nih-budget-s...

Four kinds of harmful long-term consequences from #Trump cuts to #NIH:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2836433

"First, a reduction in fundamental research, which contributes to discoveries, could slow future innovations. Second, the erosion of human capital due to […]

Potential Trade-Offs of Proposed Cuts to the US National Institutes of Health This qualitative systems modeling analysis examines potential long-term impacts of National Institutes of Health funding constraints in biomedical innovation and health care costs.

“…health care expenditures could increase as greater reliance on private sector research and development increases the costs of medical innovations. Finally, decreased investment in public health and translational research may lead to missed opportunities for disease prevention”

Potential Trade-Offs of Proposed Cuts to the US National Institutes of Health This qualitative systems modeling analysis examines potential long-term impacts of National Institutes of Health funding constraints in biomedical innovation and health care costs.

"Cutting NIH funding weakens foundational research, limiting the scientific groundwork and workforce needed for future biomedical research and reducing the pipeline of discoveries that fuel private sector innovation." jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Potential Trade-Offs of Proposed Cuts to the US National Institutes of Health This qualitative systems modeling analysis examines potential long-term impacts of National Institutes of Health funding constraints in biomedical innovation and health care costs.

"Public investment in biomedical research is not merely a budgetary decision; it is an investment in human health, longevity, and quality of life." jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Potential Trade-Offs of Proposed Cuts to the US National Institutes of Health This qualitative systems modeling analysis examines potential long-term impacts of National Institutes of Health funding constraints in biomedical innovation and health care costs.

Over the long haul, cuts to Nat'l Institutes of Health budget could cost more than is actually saved. As a key sponsor of foundational research & scientific workforce training, the NIH plays a vital role in biomedical innovation jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Potential Trade-Offs of Proposed Cuts to the US National Institutes of Health This qualitative systems modeling analysis examines potential long-term impacts of National Institutes of Health funding constraints in biomedical innovation and health care costs.

"Results of this qualitative analysis using systems modeling suggest that NIH budget reductions may have far-reaching implications for scientific progress, the biomedical innovation environment, and health care costs." jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... #research #funding #science @jama.com

Potential Trade-Offs of Proposed Cuts to the US National Institutes of Health This qualitative systems modeling analysis examines potential long-term impacts of National Institutes of Health funding constraints in biomedical innovation and health care costs.

Potential Trade-Offs of Proposed Cuts to the US National Institutes of Health jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... (open access) @jama.com

Figure 2. National Institutes of Health (NIH) Budget Cuts

Special Communication: Proposed NIH budget cuts may result in reduced scientific progress, diminished biomedical workforce development, increased health care costs, and slowed innovation.

ja.ma/3UuQmad

Potential Trade-Offs of Proposed Cuts to the US National Institutes of Health This qualitative systems modeling analysis examines potential long-term impacts of National Institutes of Health funding constraints in biomedical innovation and health care costs.

Fewer discoveries. Fewer scientists. Higher health costs.

New in JAMA Health Forum: Proposed NIH cuts aren’t just a budget move; they could reshape how science happens in the US.

We mapped the ripple effects:
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
@jamahealthforum.bsky.social

Drug involvement variations in overdose death spikes: county-level analysis in Massachusetts Background Communities often experience relatively quiet periods disrupted by sudden surges of drug overdoses, suggesting that the risk of death can change substantially in a short period. Multiple su...

New paper: Overdose death spikes aren’t all the same; local patterns matter. In MA, some are driven by cocaine, others by stimulants or fentanyl. What’s behind a spike shifts by county, underscoring the need for local response strategies
bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/3/2/...

I'll be teaching system dynamics for two days in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, May 31-June 1, thanks to the Amhara Public Health Institute for organizing and to @who.int for their partnership. Looking forward to working with researchers and government colleagues and building new partnerships in the region!

Quote by Mohammad S. Jalali stating, "A true ‘America First’ approach would recognize that investing in global stability is not charity—it is a necessity for protecting American lives and economic strength."

A new #LetterToScience argues that the U.S. budget cuts to WHO and USAID investments "will have both immediate and long-term consequences." scim.ag/4kcWEqw

WHO and USAID budget cuts hurt the US

In my letter in Science, I argue that pulling back U.S. support for WHO and USAID creates ripple effects far beyond the immediate cuts. Weakening them doesn’t just strain other countries, it circles back to affect Americans.
www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1...

Whether you're facing job loss, stalled funding, or just uncertainty... systems shift because people make them shift. Keep imagining. Keep showing up. Keep pushing. We’re all part of something bigger and that still matters!

But systems respond to pressure. A colleague reminded me of this quote from Donella Meadows: “The ability to self-organize is the strongest form of system resilience. A system that can evolve can survive almost any change, by changing itself.”

Public health took a hard hit recently, and more might be on the way. Major shake-ups at the FDA, CDC, NIH, and other agencies, along with funding cuts and job losses, have put serious pressure on research institutions. This isn’t just disruption; it’s a big system shock.

These may sound simple but they’re deeply complex and somehow still manage to catch us off guard...

2. Delays mess everything up
Even good policies can flop if we don’t account for time delays, whether in behavior change, system capacity, or policy rollout. By the time the effects show up, people are already reacting to the wrong signal.

1. Fixes that fail are everywhere
Quick policy wins often backfire. Without looking at feedback loops, we may end up solving the symptom while making the problem worse. It’s like whack-a-mole but with policy!

Over the years, I’ve worked on models to understand complex problems. The topics change (and the acronyms get longer!) but some patterns just won’t quit. Here are two things I’ve learned:

The association between buprenorphine doses above 16 milligrams and treatment retention in a multi-payer national sample in the United States, 2014 to 2021. Full study by Erin Stringfellow and colleagues @harvardmed.bsky.social buff.ly/oAGtrcp

Hello world! 👋

Off to Ireland for our annual European Commission grant meeting. Looking forward to catching up with colleagues and friends in Dublin and Maynooth this week!

Causal graphs are widely used but different sources—experts or AI—produce variations for the same problem. How to compare them? Our new study discusses metrics for evaluating semantic & structural similarities, testing them on 2K AI-generated graphs
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?ab...

Here's the first draft! Comments and suggestions welcome (through the online comment form): https://x.com/msjalali/status/1897700456283119799

📢 Slashing NIH Funding: Trump’s Gamble on Science & Health
Our draft on how NIH cuts could disrupt research, industry, healthcare—impacting jobs, innovation, economy!
Using a systems approach, we uncover overlooked tradeoffs.
Share thoughts as we revise: https://mj-lab.mgh.harvard.edu/wp-cont...