David Roth

Down to 1004 hPa at 8 am EDT Oct 11. Analyzed as a convective frontal wave. 40 kt winds reported a bit to its north but they could be higher considering the increased pressure gradient.

There’s a 1007 hPa center in the FL Straits & a more broad 1008 hPa low northwest of Grand Bahama Island. A 40 kt wind report lies a bit offshore northeast FL.

Autumn light over Loch Clair #Scotland #WesterRoss #Kinlochewe #Highlands www.damianshields.com

Autumn light over Loch Clair #Scotland #WesterRoss #Kinlochewe #Highlands www.damianshields.com

🌎 Let's take a look back at when Cyclone Errol was heading towards the coast of Western Australia on 16 April.

In this @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social Sentinel-3 image, the typical pinhole eye – a small, well-defined eye often associated tropical cyclones – is clearly visible.

It’s been fun, Karen

A convective, and per TAFB/NHC non-frontal, 1010 hPa low has formed over South FL. Per OPC, gale force winds already exist to its northeast.

The cyclone should move north along the coast on succeeding days. 🐻⌚️

The moon this morning

Stories, or stores? ;)

Clockwise from the top: Priscilla with fresh convection, Raymond near the Mexican coast, and Post-T.C. Octave, moving generally in Raymond’s direction.

Up to 60%….

Forever way from Quintana Roo. They could be safe. 🐻⌚️

Cloud tops are cooling. NHC is up to 40% chance of formation. Mentioned the possibility of advisories tonight in the Tropical Weather Outlook.

Key Messages for Strong Coastal Low - A coastal low is expected to form off the Southeast U.S. coast on Friday night and strengthen into the weekend, impacting the East Coast through early next week. - Strong onshore winds, high surf, and high astronomical tides could cause significant coastal flooding. Residents should follow local official guidance. - High surf is expected on many East Coast beaches, increasing the risk of rip currents and erosion. - Wind gusts over 55mph and heavy rainfall may hit coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Long Island, possibly reaching southern New England. Risks include power outages and inland flooding. Also includes two maps showing the chance of 55mph wind gusts on Sunday, Oct 12. The highest chances areas include parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast. And the most likely storm total rainfall. Areas in dark green to orange indicate rainfall between 1 to 6 inches, with heaviest rain projected along the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

A strong coastal low will develop late this week & will bring significant impacts to much of the U.S. East Coast through early next week.

There is potential for significant coastal flooding, strong rip currents & beach erosion, damaging wind gusts, & heavy rain.

Stay up to date at weather.gov.

A new webpage for systems that cause very heavy rain/flooding but are not considered TCs has been developed. It’s basic, and a start.

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/rot...

By older definitions, definitely. But NHC changed the definition to some degree over the years. Especially in 2011.

Fun neutercane in the middle of an occluded low northwest of the Azores.

NHC usually seems to feel better about a subtropical or tropical designation once cloud tops cool to -60C. We’re about 10C away from that level. 🐻⌚️

Another week, another exposed category 2 hurricane. This time, it’s Priscilla.

Jerry isn’t ideal either. So long as Jerry remains this sheared, it can track more west, which would increase rain for the Leewards, Virgin Islands, & maybe Puerto Rico. Its future as a TC is more in doubt, too.

Post-T.C. Imelda persists, much like the rest of us

The video I took was at 15x on the 16pro, and you can see how that turned out with a squirrel significantly up a tall tree. I don’t doubt that the 17pro is great at 8-9x. I need the distance for the nature vids, so I chose 16pro.

Post-T.C. Imelda continue to persist. Just like Ms. Marcos. ;)

10 highest temperatures in Wisconsin for October 3 range between 88 and 89.

The 10 highest temperatures this afternoon across the state are all above 88°F...We event hit 88 in Door County!

16 is clearly better than 14, thus far. The higher zoom-in vids look sharp, and it looks like the software continues to correct for any sharp movements/shaking.

Yeah. The video/camera zoom-in specs are the same as the 14. At the store, they double checked. Not sure why. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Upgraded from an iPhone 14 Pro Max to an iPhone 16 Pro Max recently. The zoom-in on the 17 was the same as the 14 (with the 16 having higher zoom-in) so it wasn’t worth it.

For a longer version of the squirrel video: #Squirrel with a #nut — early #October2025
youtu.be/nru7KdxIvwA

Post-tropical cyclone Imelda presently

Imelda, in its post-tropical/extratropical cyclone stage

sep 30 // oct 1

Imelda & Humberto, indecently exposed. Humberto to the east is a category two hurricane — our second exposed category 2 hurricane this season. 🔥

Got last nights sunset from the drone.

Some dusk imagery.

A more complete slideshow is located here: Late #September2025 #dusk
youtu.be/EWhgpobqXL4