Liam Proud

Tether megaraise may mark peak of stablecoin party - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... @liamproud.bsky.social

For several years I've written a weekly note to the @breakingviews.reuters.com team, picking out key insights and ideas. Some colleagues urged me to share these musings more widely. So behold The Week in Breakingviews, free in your inbox each Saturday. Sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...

UBS hardy valuation jars with bank's capital gripe - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea...

OpenAI gives fair warning to masochistic investors www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...

Combined capex at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta will surpass ALL listed American AND European utilities companies combined (same for energy, consumer, industrials etc.) [per UBS]

BREAKING: Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in Gaza killed at least 15 people, including three journalists, one of whom worked for Reuters, Palestinian health officials said reut.rs/45OFPfr

Dear retail traders: 'can’t lose’ means can’t win www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

European defence stocks send false peace signal Rheinmetall, Renk and peers collectively shed $15 bln of value, or 5%, after a White House summit involving Ukraine, Germany, France and Britain. Toppy valuations explain the fall, rather than expectations of less fighting. The stocks still imply soaring defence budgets.

European defence stocks send false peace signal - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Apollo-Brookfield UK pension race has two winners Weeks after the US group paid $8 bln for a British retirement manager, its Canadian peer agreed a $3 bln takeover of Just Group. Brookfield’s price is high. But Britain’s annuity market is growing and...

Apollo-Brookfield UK pension race has two winners - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Ideal new HSBC chair would be opposite of its last Outgoing board head Mark Tucker churned through CEOs and steered the $220 bln bank’s vast overhaul. Now, with the right boss and strategy in place, HSBC could use a diplomatic Asia expert happy to tak...

Ideal new HSBC chair would be opposite of its last - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Evercore’s Robey Warshaw deal sums up key-man risk The Wall Street firm is paying $196 mln for the UK boutique co-founded by Simon Robey. The danger in such transactions is that rainmakers leave. A six-year earnout helps, but for the buyer the upside ...

Evercore’s Robey Warshaw deal sums up key-man risk - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Europe’s absurd US investment pledge brings risks
www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...

Orcel’s UniCredit M&A whirlwind turns into a fog The $110 bln bank’s boss dropped his offer for Italy’s BPM but seems set on holding 29% of Germany’s Commerzbank. That leaves two questions hanging: whether a local tie-up still happens; and whether C...

Orcel’s UniCredit M&A whirlwind turns into a fog - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Breakingviews - Big Pharma pioneers the TOFU tariff trade Markets reflect a widespread belief that the US president always chickens out on trade measures. AstraZeneca’s plan to invest $50 bln stateside implies that sector-specific levies are inevitable. The drug group and rivals like Roche are assuming Trump Occasionally Follows Up.

From Breakingviews - Breakingviews - Big Pharma pioneers the TOFU tariff trade reut.rs/4mbWb8x

French PM Bayrou has likened his task reducing his country's heavy public debt load to "climbing the Himalayas." His damp squib of a budget shows him stuck in base camp.
www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...

Jane Street’s India spat touches regulatory nerve The US firm, with $20 bln of 2024 revenue, is one of the biggest of the post-2008 financial giants that have replaced banks as key market-makers. As shown by a bust-up with India, regulators are now f...

Jane Street’s India spat touches regulatory nerve - www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Are LLMs starting to become sentient? A compassionate but skeptical letter that Douglas Hofstadter wrote to one of his readers

Author Douglas Hofstadter's entertainingly jaded response to fans emailing about having "discovered" AI sentience garymarcus.substack.com/p/are-llms-s...

UK’s City makeover inches towards risky final act London Stock Exchange CEO Julia Hoggett on Friday hosted Square Mile grandees to discuss an ongoing markets reboot. Authorities have eased listing rules and cut red tape. But the next step – getting $...

UK’s City makeover inches towards risky final act - www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Thames Water, with 16 bln pounds of debt, seems like an asset nobody wants. Yet hedge funds including Elliott could still make a killing on the distressed London utility www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...

Today I learned: JPMorgan's Chase had more UK deposits at end of 2024 than any of the much more established neobanks (according to UBS analysts)

Why the dollar’s wobble could be self-perpetuating Foreigners own US stocks and bonds worth $30 trln, much of it unhedged. Doubts over the greenback’s status threaten to leave global pension funds and insurers with an intolerable currency mismatch. If they respond with increased hedging or selling, the dollar will weaken further.

Really interesting piece by @liamproud.bsky.social on the (lack of) dollar hedging. The giant Japanese Public Investment Fund has about a third of its $1.7 trillion assets invested in the US, almost all of it unhedged. @breakingviews.reuters.com
www.reuters.com/breakingview...

Still, better than the Vision Fund 2, which is just SoftBank's money

How has all that Gulf money in the $100 bln Vision Fund 1 performed? Not very well...

First slide of SoftBank's earnings presentation... 🙃

Commerzbank’s M&A lines of defence have doubled The 28-bln-euro German lender earned an 11% return on equity in the first quarter. That number may be hard to repeat, but investors are starting to buy CEO Bettina Orlopp's plan. It makes life more co...

Commerzbank’s M&A lines of defence have doubled - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Fentanyl Express: The global chemical trade behind the opioid crisis Reuters reveals how the Chinese fentanyl chemicals fueling America’s deadly opioid crisis are cheap and easy to get – and why authorities are failing to stop them.

This amazing Reuters investigation on the Fentanyl trade has just received a Pulitzer price
www.reuters.com/investigates...

UBS capital mystery raises thorny buyback dilemma In June Switzerland should signal whether the bank must hold $25 bln more equity, though a final law may take years. In the meantime, UBS has to decide whether to hoard capital and calm politicians, o...

UBS capital mystery raises thorny buyback dilemma - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v... - @liamproud.bsky.social

HSBC’s trade-war stress test flags valuation risk CEO Georges Elhedery said the bank would meet a roughly 15% return on tangible equity target even if tariffs stay high. His scenario mapping, though, excludes painful rate cuts that may happen if the ...

HSBC’s trade-war stress test flags valuation risk - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v... - @liamproud.bsky.social

📲 How much would it cost Apple to do the final assembly of iPhones in the US? About 25% more, BofA estimates (excluding tariffs). So a $1,199 handset goes up to $1,499, assuming it passes all the extra costs through to consumer. [BOM=bill of materials]

US bond market gyrations in context: the spike in the yield on 30-year Treasuries over the last three days is the second-largest such move in four decades.
www.breakingviews.com/considered-v... by @liamproud.bsky.social for @breakingviews.reuters.com