Liam Proud

Breakingviews - How insider-trading fears harm prediction markets Six Polymarket accounts may ⁠have made $1.2 ​mln betting on the ​ouster of Iran’s leader, in trades funded ​hours before ​an air strike killed him. ‌Worries ⁠about unfairly clued-up counterparties may...

How insider-trading fears harm prediction markets www.reuters.com/commentary/b... @jen-johnson.bsky.social

Iran bets on endurance, energy disruption to outlast US, Israel Iran's strategy is stark: Unleash drones and missiles, cut vital energy routes and jolt markets.

"What emerges may be a wounded Iran, but a bleeding Iran could prove just as dangerous -- and perhaps more unpredictable -- than the establishment that entered this conflict." www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Banks’ capital steroid use warrants extra scrutiny Lenders from Barclays to BNP have struck 'risk transfer' deals covering $885 bln of loans, flattering their equity ratios. The European market could double in size. As usage grows, though, so does the...

Banks’ capital steroid use warrants extra scrutiny www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... @liamproud.bsky.social

For all the talk of cryptocurrencies going mainstream, this is the wobbly pillar on which the edifice rests: Tether’s stablecoin has a shrinking cash buffer and has parked more of its assets in bitcoin, gold and other illiquid investments. Via @liamproud.bsky.social
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

Stablecoin giant is crypto’s fragile foundation Tether, with $184 bln in issue, dominates dollar-pegged tokens. Yet its equity buffer has shrunk while investments backing the coin are riskier. As bitcoin falls, the risks of a panic are rising. That...

Stablecoin giant is crypto’s fragile foundation www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-... @liamproud.bsky.social

Bitcoin ETF holdings are massively under water. Separately, half of all bitcoin in circulation is now worth less than its most recent on-chain purchase price

Bitcoin now trails German, UK and U.S. stocks over a two-year period. Gap much bigger (in stock markets' favour) if you include dividends, which this chart doesn't

Artificial intelligence will hurt incumbent software, data and professional services companies. But it won't destroy them outright. At least, that's what public-market investors seem to think www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-...

YouTube is eating TV (streamers too) - and there's not much that traditional broadcasters can do about it @jen-johnson.bsky.social www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

The US immigrant population generated more in taxes than they received in benefits from all levels of government every year from 1994 to 2023.

The Cato study provides the first-ever 30-year analysis of the fiscal effects of immigration on government budgets.

https://ow.ly/jy8a50Y8kM3

CVC pays up for a more credible growth story The Europe-focused buyout giant has agreed to take over US credit shop Marathon for up to $1.6 bln. The price looks rich. But CVC President Peter Rutland at least gets a business that will boost his f...

CVC pays up for a more credible growth story www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... @liamproud.bsky.social

What Ukraine’s resilient banks can teach Zelenskiy @pierrebri.bsky.social

www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

Could Europe sell its $14 trln of US financial assets to pressure Trump on Greenland? Not really www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea...

Breakingviews - Gain and pain will battle for leading role in 2026 In 2025, tech optimism overpowered tariff gloom to keep economies growing and markets buoyant. In the coming 12 months, state stimulus and corporate exuberance will again clash with political dysfunct...

It's the final day of the 13 Days of Predictions from @breakingviews.reuters.com. Here's my recap: www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
And download the full e-book here: newslink.breakingviews.com/join/5aq/pre...

As the world enters 2026, Breakingviews columnists map out how powerful forces of macroeconomic stimulus, exuberance over artificial intelligence and corporate dealmaking could interact with tensions between great powers, financial gravity and political dysfunction in the coming 12 months.

Introducing ‘Predictions 2026’, a new e-book from Breakingviews laying out the deals, companies, people and market moves that will shape the year ahead.
Access the book 👉 reut.rs/3YDKKwu
Or read articles online 👉 reut.rs/45puKSz

As the world enters 2026, Breakingviews columnists map out how powerful forces of macroeconomic stimulus, exuberance over artificial intelligence and corporate dealmaking could interact with tensions between great powers, financial gravity and political dysfunction in the coming 12 months.

The biggest M&A deal ever. A crypto bailout. Just some of the things Breakingviews columnists predict for 2026 in a new e-book, ‘Far Side of the Boom’.

Access the book 👉 reut.rs/3YDKKwu
Or read articles online 👉 reut.rs/45puKSz

Introducing ‘Predictions 2026’, our e-book laying out the deals, companies, people and market moves that will shape the year ahead.

Access the book 👉 reut.rs/3YDKKwu
Or read articles online 👉 reut.rs/45puKSz

Corrective to the Big Tech AI leverage fears: Even if all next year’s capex was funded with debt, the five hyperscalers' combined borrowings would still be just 1 times EBITDA. And aside from Oracle, CDS have not risen v much www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

Breakingviews - The case for a big, one-off wealth tax Cash-strapped Western states must invest in their militaries and green energy. With the top 1% increasing its grip on wealth, and paying little tax, soaking the rich looks justified. But a chunky one-off levy makes more sense than an annual charge, which is vulnerable to dodging.

Commentary | The case for a big, one-off wealth tax
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

Tether megaraise may mark peak of stablecoin party - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... @liamproud.bsky.social

For several years I've written a weekly note to the @breakingviews.reuters.com team, picking out key insights and ideas. Some colleagues urged me to share these musings more widely. So behold The Week in Breakingviews, free in your inbox each Saturday. Sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...

UBS hardy valuation jars with bank's capital gripe - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea...

OpenAI gives fair warning to masochistic investors www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...

Combined capex at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta will surpass ALL listed American AND European utilities companies combined (same for energy, consumer, industrials etc.) [per UBS]

BREAKING: Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in Gaza killed at least 15 people, including three journalists, one of whom worked for Reuters, Palestinian health officials said reut.rs/45OFPfr

Dear retail traders: 'can’t lose’ means can’t win www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

European defence stocks send false peace signal Rheinmetall, Renk and peers collectively shed $15 bln of value, or 5%, after a White House summit involving Ukraine, Germany, France and Britain. Toppy valuations explain the fall, rather than expectations of less fighting. The stocks still imply soaring defence budgets.

European defence stocks send false peace signal - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Apollo-Brookfield UK pension race has two winners Weeks after the US group paid $8 bln for a British retirement manager, its Canadian peer agreed a $3 bln takeover of Just Group. Brookfield’s price is high. But Britain’s annuity market is growing and...

Apollo-Brookfield UK pension race has two winners - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Ideal new HSBC chair would be opposite of its last Outgoing board head Mark Tucker churned through CEOs and steered the $220 bln bank’s vast overhaul. Now, with the right boss and strategy in place, HSBC could use a diplomatic Asia expert happy to tak...

Ideal new HSBC chair would be opposite of its last - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social

Evercore’s Robey Warshaw deal sums up key-man risk The Wall Street firm is paying $196 mln for the UK boutique co-founded by Simon Robey. The danger in such transactions is that rainmakers leave. A six-year earnout helps, but for the buyer the upside ...

Evercore’s Robey Warshaw deal sums up key-man risk - www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea... - @liamproud.bsky.social