Fabien Cottier

I know we're desensitized, but it's important to note, again, that today's events would have led to the immediate impeachment & removal of any president from at least Truman to at least Obama. We're hundreds of miles on the interstate past Richard Nixon's high school prank-level crimes compared to 👇

Thanks so much, Nils!

That said, I am glad for the chance to remain involved with research at Columbia through a President's Global Innovation Fund (PGIF) for a project on displaced livelihood in India. I am also enthusiatic about a new project funded with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, with @he-yin.bsky.social.

It is of course bittersweet to be leaving Columbia at a time when scientific research in the US is facing unprecedented attacks.

I throughly enjoyed the past 6+ years at Columbia University, and in particular at CIESIN, the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. I will be missing my many colleagues at Columbia. I am especially thankful to Alex de Sherbinin and Richard Seager.

I am excited to share that I am starting a new position as a Lecturer in the department of political science and international relations (www.unige.ch/sciences-soc...) at the University of Geneva this Fall semester.

The White House has chosen a truly extremist step that will kneecap American research and innovation.

It is an additional bomb dropped on the US higher education system, illegally and recklessly, that will end up harming every Conservative and Liberal American.

We are excited to hear from Sarah Rosengaertner, Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, Miyuki Hino, Jeroen Aerts and Michael Oppenheimer about the opportunities and pitfalls of quantitative models, as well as the promises of model intercomparison and integration to generate nuanced evidence-based policies.

@lisathalheimer.bsky.social and I are looking forward to a great panel discussion on Wednesday at the #MR2025 conference on the use of quantitative models and data to inform policy on climate-induced migration (8.30am, Geffen Hall room #320).

New book "Migration and Displacement in a Changing Climate" with the brilliant @rmcleman.bsky.social and Kayly Ober out in April and available for preorder! @cambridgeup.bsky.social

How Can We Help People Who Cannot Flee High Climate-Risk Zones? Much research focuses on people fleeing climate risks and natural hazards. What about those who can't move?

How can policymakers help people who can't flee climate risks? New study by CIESIN's @fabiencottier.bsky.social & Alex de Sherbinin, @ncdp.bsky.social's @wxpizza.bsky.social, @lamontearth.bsky.social's @monahemmati.bsky.social & Radley Horton, & colleagues explores policy and preparedness solutions.

Just got an email from the Fulbright Association. As of right now, funding has been cut off to 12,500 US citizens currently abroad and and more than 7,400 foreigner scholars and students in the United States

Macron: EU needs ‘hundreds of billions’ in defense spending as US pivots away French president’s urging comes ahead of Thursday’s special EU summit focused on defense, as Trump signals a friendlier approach to Moscow and disengagement from Europe.

"It's quarter to the midnight. As there are doubts over the support of the Americans towards Europe over time, we need to mobilise hundreds of billions of euros. It is Europe's strategic wake-up moment." www.politico.eu/article/euro...

I got laid off today, with the rest of 18F.

18F was an elite federal software shop. We made gov't websites work better, more efficiently for the American people. We saved taxpayers from getting screwed over by contractors. And were fired for it.

We made this website to tell our story:
18f.org

list of banned keywords

🚨BREAKING. From a program officer at the National Science Foundation, a list of keywords that can cause a grant to be pulled. I will be sharing screenshots of these keywords along with a decision tree. Please share widely. This is a crisis for academic freedom & science.

Incredibly moving Justin Trudeau remarks:

"We have fought and died alongside you....During your darkest hours...we were always there. Standing with you, grieving with you, the American people....Canadians are a little perplexed as to why our closest friends and neighbors are choosing to target us."

This work was made possible by the generous support of Africa Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI) and the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). [7/7]

I am deeply thankful to Alex de Sherbinin, Jacob Schewe, Kamal Amakrane, Bryan Jones, Hélène Benveniste, Samir K.C., Sarah Rosengaertner, Richard Seager, Nina von Uexkull, Greg Yetman, as well as Robert Beyer and Michal Burzynski for their insightful comments and/or data sharing. [6/n]

And yet, close inspection of the calibration model suggests that its predictive ability should not be overstated. Examining the predictive ability of the model within individual migration corridors indicate that the model still struggles to capture temporal dynamics. [5/n]

An out-of-sample assessment of the posterior predictive ability of the model using leave-one-out cross-validated expected log pointwise density indicates that hierarchical models out-perform simpler models in replicating observed migration flows on the continent over the period 1990-2010. [4/n]

To calibrate the projection model underlying these projections, I use Bayesian hierarchical models in a gravity framework. Drawing on SSP and RCP scenarios, I then project future migration under different combinations of climate change and socio-economic scenarios. [3/n]

The results indicate that over the period 2010–2050 up to 17 million people are projected to migrate internationally on the African continent (from one African country to another one), though only at best 5% of these as a result of climate change.

Frontiers | Projecting future migration with Bayesian hierarchical gravity models of migration: an application to Africa

Great to see my new paper out with Frontiers in Climate (www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...). In this paper, I present the methodology behind projections of future international migration within Africa, that were released in the recent African Shifts report (africa.climatemobility.org). [1/n]

Fabien Cottier

Here at @agu.org #AGU24, we stopped by to talk with CIESIN scientist Fabien Cottier about his research on factors behind the recent rise in migration from Central America to the US and from West Africa to Europe. Watch the 🎥 here: www.instagram.com/p/DDfftg-qnXM/

Yes, Nic Choquette-Levy will be presenting the results of some of our research that looks at the implication of climate change (among others) for internal migration in Senegal; see here agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/me...

Looking forward to our oral session tomorrow at #AGU24 on 'Climate Change in Fragile Contexts: Responses, Adaptation, and Security'. We are delighted to have as invited speakers Thomas Parris, Kathleen Cunningham and Jamon van den Hoek (Monday, Dec 9, 4pm). agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/me...

Remember kids, you can't do anything to and about Putin because he always cares more than we do, his resolve is infinite, and his commitment to friends, clients and fellow autocrats is boundless. Neither he nor Russia can ever lose or just get up and leave. Simply impossible, doesn't happen.

Nice to see this social network finally gaining traction

I am very glad to announce our 2024 AGU Fall session on "Responses and Adaptation to Climate Change in Fragile Contexts" that we are convening with Elisabeth Gilmore and David Wrathall.

More information about the session here: agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/me...