Karina Patrício

But I am not sure to what extent people voted purely based on fear of what would happen if Milei lost. Fear may have played a role, but only to the extent the opposition did not present a credible alternative plan.

It has kept the overvalued exchange rate afloat and prevented a major currency run, so in that sense yes.

But again, Peronism has made no clear alternative economic proposition that includes inflation control, so...

Inflation control has been a huge factor in my view but this has been achieved at an unsustainable macro programme (keeping the peso overvalued). Unless the US Treasury is keen to finance that in the longer run, it is unlikely to last.

That said again, the general trend is that incumbent governments tend to lose the mid-term elections, so the result is incredibly good for them.

That said, one must always take a nuanced position when it comes to electoral trends in Argentina, given the volatile economic situation that has been enduring for decades now. Macri also won the mid-term elections and lost the presidential election 2 years later by 18 percentage points.

... is still playing a role in determining people's votes.

In my view, there are many ways to explain the result but the main ones are the lack of unity and a coherent alternative programme within Peronism (especially in terms of economic policy), compounded by the memory of Alberto Fernandez's bad government, which...

Honestly, even the government is surprised with the results. I think the general expectation (including mine) was that they would be 5-8 percentage points below.

The recently announced US Treasury swap line to Argentina tells a larger story – one of structural external imbalance and the enduring geopolitics of the dollar system.
My commentary explores what this decision reveals and why transparency and accountability over its terms are urgently needed.

Insightful commentary on Argentina’s balance of payments and the geopolitics of liquidity, from our very own Dr @kpatricio.bsky.social @cblpleeds.bsky.social

Read more👇

20 billion dollar US Treasury + Fed bailout for Argentina's Javier Milei. Cui Bono? "Funds at investment firms including BlackRock, Fidelity and Pimco are heavily invested in Argentina, as are investors such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Robert Citrone, both of whom worked with Mr. Bessent."

Rescue or Leverage? Argentina’s Balance of Payments and the Geopolitics of Liquidity The US Treasury’s decision to extend a swap line to Argentina through the Exchange Stabilization Fund is the latest manifestation of Argentina’s structural external imbalance and the enduring geopolit...

www.linkedin.com/pulse/rescue...

The recently announced US Treasury swap line to Argentina tells a larger story – one of structural external imbalance and the enduring geopolitics of the dollar system.
My commentary explores what this decision reveals and why transparency and accountability over its terms are urgently needed.

Drawing upon all of that, I have written on how access to the globall financial safety net intersects with questions of sovereign solvency in the post–Bretton Woods era.

academic.oup.com/jiel/article...

There is a lot written on the proliferation of swap lines since the 2008 global financial crisis, although in fact they originated in the 1960s to support the Eurodollar market. Perry Mehrling’s work on the global swap network is particularly popular.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

The dollarisation plan is longer-term and seems to be dormant for now. The pressing issue is to preserve the over-valued exchange rate until the mid-term election in late October, with practically no dollars left in the reserves apart from IMF resources.

It’s a run to hedge the dollar, not a run on the dollar Hedge hogging

The current moment is quite telling. In the face of heightened uncertainty, investors are increasingly hedging their exposures to the dollar while continuing to hold US assets. If anything, hedging has become the business of the times.

on.ft.com/418VPYb

📝 Deadline to submit abstracts: 30 June 2025
📍 Event dates (online): 19-20 September 2025
📚 Accepted papers may be invited for publication in JIEL and are eligible for the SIEL/JIEL/OUP Prize.

Further information and application form here: lnkd.in/d2JFE4yw

... connect with a fantastic network working at the intersections of trade, investment, finance, tax, labour, and more.

I am happy to answer questions about the event, especially from Latin American scholars, whose presence in JIEL remains underrepresented. Do not hesitate to get in touch!

🚨 Call for Papers: JIEL Junior Faculty Forum 2025 🚨

The Journal of International Economic Law has launched the call for this year’s edition of its Junior Faculty Forum.
This a great opportunity for junior scholars to present unpublished work, receive comments from leading experts, and...

🗓 21 May 11am-12pm (BST)
📍 Boardroom, Liberty Building, University of Leeds (and online)
🔗 Please register here, indicating whether you plan to attend in person or online: www.tickettailor.com/events/schoo...

I am very pleased to host my dear former PhD supervisor @profjohnlinarelli.bsky.social for this upcoming @cblpleeds.bsky.social Guest Seminar at @lawatleeds.bsky.social on 21 May.

Please join us! The event is free and open to the public, and will take place in hybrid format.

1/2: The launch event of the final report of our project ‘Enhancing MDB Capacity through Local Currency Financing’ is taking place this Monday, 28 April, 1-2pm. The report explores the potential for local currency financing by multilateral development banks. You can register here: 🔗 lnkd.in/dZ7gm7nf

Regardless of any religious background, I hope we can all honour his memory by upholding these values.

It is with sadness that I learn about the passing of Pope Francis, in my view the most inspiring head of state in today’s world. I greatly admired his advocacy for peace, international law, social justice, and a fairer international financial architecture.

Important new research on local currency financing from @anninak.bsky.social @bbonizzi.bsky.social @kpatricio.bsky.social @karstenkohler.bsky.social business.leeds.ac.uk/research-air...

Very pleased that the final version of our MDB Challenge Fund report is finally out! We spent a year investigating the barriers to scaling up local currency financing by Multilateral Development Banks. Please see Karina's post for a brief summary and relevant links. Feedback very welcome!

Research team:
@anninak.bsky.social, @bbonizzi.bsky.social, @karstenkohler.bsky.social, Karsten Kohler, @iweigandi.bsky.social, Guilherme Klein Martins, and yours truly.

@lawatleeds.bsky.social @lubsecondept.bsky.social @policyleeds.bsky.social @cblpleeds.bsky.social

10/ 📥 Download the full report & policy briefing here: business.leeds.ac.uk/research-air...

We would welcome your thoughts and feedback on these findings!