Ian Bowers

Escalation Dynamics in Maritime East Asia

Join experts on sea power, East Asian security & geostrategy and their relevance for Europe with Prof Alessio Patalano @sophgaston.bsky.social @ianbowers.bsky.social & Prof Øystein Tunsjø

📅 Thu 11 Dec,17:00–18:30
📍Melbourne House
🎟️ csns.uk/event/escala...

The reality of North Korea punditry is that *very* few people *remotely* have an idea of what Kim Jong Un is up to, and even then, they haven’t had an informed take since probably 2019-20. Yet “experts” are asked to opine and speculate and it becomes headline news. Yes, the media fuels this, I know.

Nuclear Deterrence Fellow (PostDoc) in Leicester | University of Leicester Recruitment Team View details and apply for this Nuclear Deterrence Fellow (PostDoc) vacancy in Leicester. The University of Leicester is proud to be part of the UK Nuclear Deterrence Network, a collaborative initia...

jobs.le.ac.uk/vacancies/11...

The Future of Defense Is Coincidentally Made By My Company

by

Every War Industry Executive

Bridging the Ambiguity-Explicitness Gap in the U.S.-South Korean Alliance - War on the Rocks One side wants more explicitness in the level of commitment to the relationship, while the other wants to remain ambiguous. While this tug-of-war could

A nuclear promise is only as strong as it is believable. And right now, South Korea isn’t convinced. warontherocks.com/20...

A great smorgasbord of strategic thinking in the latest issue of Survival. Key words: time is of the essence. The piece on "NATO's vulnerable space assets" is ground-breaking (@IanBowers & Henrik Stålhane Hiim) re the baleful consequences for Europe of 🇨🇳space operations in a Taiwan crisis.

NEW satellite imagery and AIS data provide the first complete timeline of how China has systematically deployed structures in disputed Yellow Sea waters despite S. Korean objections, according to @csis.org Beyond Parallel analysis.

cc: @victordcha.bsky.social, AMTI, Jennifer Jun

↓ Findings below

Knock-on Risks to NATO’s Space-based War-fighting Capabilities NATO is more vulnerable to a war in the Indo-Pacific than is commonly understood. In a conflict between the United States and China, key US space-based capabilities would be tasked away from Europe...

Check out our new article in Survival written with Henrik Hiim.
We examine the knock-on risks of a US-China conflict to NATO's space operations and the potential impact on NATO's warfighting capabilities.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Lee Jae-myung poised to win S. Korean presidency Lee Jae-myung, leader of South Korea's main liberal Democratic Party of Korea, is poised to win the presidency, according to an exit poll released after voting

Exit polls have Lee Jae-myung as South Korea's next president. There will be plenty of pieces in next few days saying why that's good/bad-most will say bad-for US-ROK alliance. For now, enough to say this starts to bring closure to a very turbulent few months in South Korea's domestic politics.

Just announced: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will deliver a keynote (virtually) at our Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Monday morning. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...

Mærsk vil hjælpe Forsvaret med at sætte turbo på fregatbyggeri Rederigiganten tilbyder ifølge DR Nyheders oplysninger at hjælpe Danmark gennem selskabets værft i Sydkorea.

🇩🇰Danish shipping giant Maersk apparently has offered Danish defence shipbuilding capacity in South Korea for the new air defence frigates. The hulls could be built in 🇰🇷South Korea and then fully assembled and equipped in Denmark to speed up the proces.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...

ONP Doctoral Research Fellow @frhoffmann.bsky.social, together with @marksbell.bsky.social, has published a new article in Foreign Affairs examining the implications of a U.S. withdrawal from the European continent for European nuclear deterrence.

An important finding. "...officials from several European countries on the North Sea and Baltic Sea told Recorded Future News there is increasing confidence among their governments that the incidents were accidental and not directed by the Kremlin." therecord.media/european-off...

Not Just Another Cold War – The Implications of the US-China Rivalry Boklansering: Hvordan former supermaktrivaliseringen mellom Kina og USA vår tid – er vi på vei mot en ny kald krig, eller er dette noe helt annet?

Velkommen til bokbad på Litteraturhuset! 📖
23. april, kl. 15.30 lanseres boken "Not Just Another Cold War – The Implications of the US-China Rivalry".
Meld deg på her👇

China, Japan, South Korea to meet as Trump tariffs take shape South Korea’s Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun will host the meeting with Japan’s Yoji Muto and China’s Wang Wentao.

This would seem to be a sub-optimal result for long-term US strategic goals towards China (assuming long-term thinking is still a consideration in Washington). 🤦‍♂️

China, Japan, South Korea to meet as Trump tariffs take shape www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...

B-52 Stratofortress to pass over Oslo On Friday, Norwegian F-35s will escort American B-52 Stratofortress in the airspace over Eastern Norway. The aircraft will fly at low altitude over Akershus Fortress in Oslo at 12:00 noon. The flight ...

Tomorrow, Norwegian F-35s will escort American B-52 Stratofortress over Eastern Norway. The aircraft will make a low pass over Oslo city centre at 12:00 noon. The flight is part of normal training activities and gives Norwegian and US forces vital training. #StrongerTogether #WeAreNATO

This is a solid argument for a French/Anglo-French European extended nuclear deterrent.

Coming round to the view that a French/Anglo-French extended deterrence system is the best option vs. continued reliance on an inconstant US, or opening the door to European (and global) nuclear proliferation.

A mother & son in Ukraine 🇺🇦, 1993 vs. 2025.

Whose side are we on, America🇺🇸?

Trump eases rules on military raids and airstrikes, expanding range of who can be targeted The increase in the range of people who can be targeted by the U.S. military dismantles Biden-era mandates that included more safeguards.

In a "quiet but seismic recalibration," Trump has rolled back constraints on American commanders to authorize airstrikes & special operation raids outside conventional battlefields, broadening the range of people who can be targeted according to US officials with knowledge of the policy shift

Managing Europe's Long-Term Relations with Russia – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) This seminar explores strategies for shaping future security dynamics between Europe and Russia, focusing on arms control, policies and diplomatic init ...

📆Happening tomorrow, Feb. 25, 9-10am.

❓How should Europe engage with Russia amid its ongoing war with Ukraine?

☢️Join us in Oslo for a timely panel discussion with experts from the Peace Research Institute Oslo & ONP.

Learn more and register ➡️ prio.org/events/9215

French Navy aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) coming into Subic Bay - February 21, 2025 #fscharlesdegaulle #r91

SRC: TW-@MarieFontanelPH

I’d like to think I’m the first person to get into a flame war with VPOTUS from the swimming pool of Woburn Center Parcs at half-term.

Want to live in New Zealand and work with me? ejye.fa.ap1.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

(Paywalled article) NATOs third CAOC will be established in Norway and the Norwegian government has to decide on the location by the end of February.

There are two candidates:
Alongside Joint HQ outside Bodø but the mountain facility is at capacity.
Rygge, with an empty hardened site.

USS Harry S. Truman Collides with Merchant Vessel - USNI News USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75), the flagship of the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, collided with M/V Besiktas-M around 11:45 p.m. Wednesday near Port Said, Egypt, in the Mediterranean Sea, the Na...

USS Harry S. Truman Collides with Merchant Vessel - USNI News
news.usni.org/2025/02/13/b...

WAR, WORDS, AND THE FOURTH ESTATE The complex and evolving relationship between the military and the media has spanned various periods in U.S. history. In a discussion with War Room editor-in-chief JP Clark, Thomas Crosbie, author of ...

warroom.armywarcollege.edu/podcasts/war...

Please check out this episode of War Room from US Army War College where my vague notions are given form and structure by the brilliant JP Clark @jpclark97.bsky.social @warroomeds.bsky.social

Year Three of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Implications and Ways Forward - Department of Political Science Join the Oslo Nuclear Project and the Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) Norway for a panel discussion on the three-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine.

Join the Oslo Nuclear Project @unioslo-svfak.bsky.social and YATA Norway’s upcoming expert discussion on the third year of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine 🇺🇦
www.sv.uio.no/isv/english/...

📅 Save the date for a panel!

On 11 February (17-18:30 CET) ONP is co-hosting an in-person panel with YATA Norway on the three-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine.

👉 To register: t.co/XxwIyZ6g8y