Asaf Manela

🚨 Call for Papers! 🚨
Submit to the 21st Annual Olin Finance Conference @WashUOlin, Oct 16–17, 2025.
Topics: asset pricing, corp finance, behavioral, more.
Deadline: July 13
Details: event.olin.wustl.edu/washu-financ...

#econsky

Updated this chart with the newest Gemini. It shows the rapid progress in AI over less than two years: costs for GPT-4 class models has dropped 99.7% and even the most advanced models (beating PhDs at the GPQA) are still 82% cheaper than GPT-4.

Probably not worth betting on this trend ending soon.

Love what you have done with that graph

📢Call for papers for the NYU Stern Climate Finance Conference!

Conference: May 23
NYU Stern
Deadline: Feb 28

www.stern.nyu.edu/experience-s...

The most extensive open access macro database spanning centuries, many items, and many countries. Worth a look if you are into empirical macro/finance: www.globalmacrodata.com

#EconSky #FinSky #Data #Macro #Research #OpenAccess

NB: Interest rate of Netherlands since 1402 (the year, not Feb '14 😀)

2025 Summer School on Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance

Luke Taylor, Stephen Terry, and I are doing it again. This will be the 5th structural summer school in finance. We do not just teach papers. We teach techniques, and then we have students work on a problem set. Please get your students to apply.

rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/2025-summer-...

* #econsky

Check it out here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

We hope this sparks fresh ideas for researchers, practitioners, and especially students, and generally lowers any barriers to using natural language data in your work.

We also highlight real-world applications: measuring financial constraints, uncovering product-market synergies, tracking investor sentiment, mapping climate risk, and more.

From word lists and anchor-phrase queries to embeddings and Generative AI, our paper surveys the full spectrum of NLP methods. We explain when each approach excels, and how to choose the right tool for your research objective.

Thrilled to announce our new paper, The Natural Language of Finance, forthcoming in Foundations and Trends!

We explore how #AI, #NLP, and large language models are transforming research in corporate finance and asset pricing. #econtwitter

I recognize though, that I know much more about generating natural language than I know about generating power, so maybe this is also not as big a deal ...

China's Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak smashes fusion confinement record – Physics World The device sustained a high-confinement plasma for over 1000 seconds

This breakthrough in fusion seems much more significant to me than the llm one by deepseek:

physicsworld.com/a/chinas-exp...

Hi Everyone!

We're hosting our Wharton AI and the Future of Work Conference on 5/21-22. Last year was a great event with some of the top papers on AI and work.

Paper submission deadline is 3/3. Come join us! Submit papers here: forms.gle/ozJ5xEaktXDE...

Been using @zotero.org for bib management for many years, but what is most remarkable about this project is how it keeps improving. Its pdf reader now beats anything else I've used, and v7 added the Smart Reference Popup that allow me to peak at a figure/table/reference without leaving the text.

Ever wonder why in finance we refer to market-wide risk as "systematic" instead of "systemic"?

Purely from the standpoint of dictionary definitions, “systemic” (affecting an entire system) might appear more intuitive for market-wide risk than “systematic” (done according to a system or plan).

Navigating Corporate Insolvency: Lessons from Northvolt's Bankruptcy Northvolt, the ambitious Swedish battery producer, recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Texas, highlighting significant challenges for Europe's corporate insolvency systems. Swedish House of Fi...

Why do large Swedish companies file for Chapter 11 in the US? And what does it tell us about reform opportunities in EU insolvency law? (Hint: ch 11 is better; reforms should continue). I discuss the Northvolt filing here: www.hhs.se/sv/houseoffi...

Abolish the CPA/CFA?

Congratulations!

I was joking of course. I think some of the papers it generated have clear formatting problems (though real submitted papers sometimes have those too). But the tech will keep improving so you are clearly pointing to a real issue.

Cool paper. Why not take the extra step and see if they are credible enough to pass peer review?

The machines are still producing mostly convex combinations of human writing and ideas.

If you put an exponential growth curve on it then sure, they'll be super intelligent around the corner, but until then, still human civilization.

Good idea. Using sentiment analysis @israelsen.bsky.social, eitan goldman and I found that the same corporate financial news is covered differently in the NYT vs WSJ based on corporations’ politics www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Thanks for making our paper much more fun than we ever could.

Getting a journal pub is nice, but in my circles, a feature in Money Stuff is on a higher level.

Achievement unlocked ;)

Don't know about CF, but in AP I would consider estimates of:
1. relative risk aversion
2. intertemporal elasticity of substitution
3. equity premium

Exclusive | Amazon Announces Supercomputer, New Server Powered by Homegrown AI Chips The company’s megacluster of chips for artificial-intelligence startup Anthropic will be among the world’s largest, it said, and its new giant server will lower the cost of AI as it seeks to build an ...

Exciting stuff. Competition is good. www.wsj.com/articles/ama...

9/ Read the full paper here:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

8/ Tobacco use digression:
In fact we can show that tobacco use is highly correlated with tobacco industry sentiment measured using our method (Thanks @paulgp.com for this useful suggestion).

7/ Broader impact:
Our method isn't just about finance—it can be applied to other sectors. Imagine tracking long-term sentiment shifts toward tech, energy, or healthcare and linking them to societal outcomes. We provide some examples from the coal, paper, and tobacco industries for comparison.

6/ Why this is exciting:
This is the first paper to provide a century-long, cross-country view of finance sentiment. It shows how perceptions are shaped not only by crises but also by broader cultural and political contexts.