Eric Reis

But measures of inflation *include* housing costs. So if housing costs have increased more than general inflation, then other costs have increased less.

These also don't seem to account for the scenario where he is the GOP *VP* nominee. Presumably that would add a few points to the total.

I may be reading this wrong, but the chart seems to track only the change in year-over-year spending. Wouldn't that screen out most of the holiday ramp by showing only the improvement since this time last year?

Perfect timing! I'm teaching this case tomorrow. Thanks for sharing the video.

In the screenshot, she suggests that term limits couldn't be imposed on the current justices *even by constitutional amendment.* That seems clearly wrong.

I’ll Take Hillary Clinton Over Donald Trump The future of the entire conservative movement is at stake, and a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump might be the only hope of saving it.

thefederalist.com/2016/02/24/i...

That was the idea: You were creating a trust to protect a spendthrift beneficiary from the beneficiary's own improvidence. Of course, now these trusts are created for responsible beneficiaries too.

Trust law will likely keep it anchored to its original definition, since a "spendthrift trust" is a very important vehicle in estate planning.

(I'm referring to the second article, where the man is a Polish citizen and his wife is a U.S. citizen.)

I know this isn't the point of the article, but something puzzles me. Why were there "visa and work-permit" problems in Ireland and France? He's a citizen of an EU country. Don't both he and his wife have the right to live and work anywhere in the EU?

They play so many games, though, that of course these 1% probability events crop up every season. It would be more weird in a lower-volume sport like football.

I'm seeing nostalgia for the "good old days" when pensions were more common. But back then, companies weren't required to fund their pensions! So if your employer went broke, your retirement was destroyed. The 401(k)s that replaced pensions are flawed too, but their risks are more transparent.

I do wonder, though, if excluding all tax legislation may eliminate more than you intend. For example, the Earned Income Tax Credit takes the form of a tax provision, but substantively is equivalent to a cash payment to the working poor. Republicans voted to expand that under Reagan.

Medicare Part D? You could argue that it was unnecessarily complicated, or that a Democratic approach would have been better. But it does seem to meet your definition.

Applying the broader criteria of your prior comment (including textualism etc.) Bostock might fit. You could argue that Gorsuch and Roberts were OK with the result, but Roberts dissented in Obergefell so 🤷‍♂️.

Here is a great new account that will do important public service by letting us read the filings that journalists don’t like and by stopping me from unproductive violence re same

I'm not finding the original post when I search for it online, so this may not be real.

This is the week or so when the Senate will hold confirmation hearings, though, and some nominees may feature heavily in the report. Still probably won't matter, but it's a more important week than most.

I agree with your broader point, but would collection-plate donations satisfy the Duberstein test if churches weren't otherwise exempt? The sermon, choir, etc. would seem to be services, and of course even voluntary payments (like tipping a restaurant server or musician) can be income.

"Two Kansas counties — Wichita and Hodgeman, in west-central Kansas — have no attorneys at all. Seven more have no attorneys under the age of 60."

I wrote last year about how very-high-net-worth individuals create generational wealth by guaranteeing their children's debts. It's been on hold for a little while but I'm pleased to report that Florida Tax Review just published it! Feedback welcome. journals.upress.ufl.edu/ftr/article/...

Congratulations!

For the clarification list: Maybe this is inherent in the distinction between a pardon and commutation, but a president should still have the power to commute a death sentence, even while a lame duck, and even if the sentence would otherwise be carried out within 30 days.

A tax credit can be "refundable." If it exceeds your tax liability, the government writes you a check for the difference.

Morris (the new 538 guy) was also much more bullish on Biden in 2020 than Silver was. Silver still favored Biden that cycle, but less strongly. FWIW Silver seems to have had the better side of that argument, since the election results were closer than many people were expecting.

But at the same time, his percentage overall has gone up slightly. Originally Trump had 50% overall (100/200), while now Trump has 50.5% overall (101/200). 5/5 <end>

Originally, Trump had 25% of Independents (25/100) and 75% of Republicans (75/100). Now Trump has 18.75% of Independents (15/80) and 71.7% of Republicans (86/120). So his percentage in each group has gone down. 4/

Now assume 10 Trump Independents and 10 Ambivalent Independents move to the Republican column. Most keep their same preferences as between Trump and Ambivalent, but one flips from Ambivalent to Trump. Now, check the percentages: 3/

Meanwhile, no Republicans think only Biden is good, 75 Republicans think only Trump is good, and 25 think both or neither are good. Let's call the Both/Neither category "Ambivalent." 2/

I'm getting the math to work, but please check me. To make this easier, let's focus on just 2 groups, Independents & Republicans.

Assume we start with 100 Independents & 100 Republicans. 25 Independents think only Biden is good, 25 think only Trump is good, & 50 think both or neither are good. 1/