Claire Adida

prediction flipped entirely to Cornyn win after tuesday (85% right now).

Kalshi prediction market flips entirely on the TX Rep Senate nominee prediction.

Democrats have more flip opportunities *this month* in New Hampshire and Florida, and arguably Louisiana (that one may be a stretch).

More info in the legislative special election section of my guide if you scroll down: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

RESULT: Democrats have flipped a state House seat in Arkansas.

This is their 2nd flip of a legislative seat so far in 2025 (after a Texas flip in January), & it adds to a tremendous trend that started last year, when they flipped 21% of all GOP-held seats in play: boltsmag.org/legislative-...

BREAKING: The Texas Secretary of State DID NOT UPDATE the precinct maps on their website last December. MY GOD @msnowreports.bsky.social

A democratic candidate just won in the *checks notes*

Arkansas state house special election.

Flip from R to D.

That’s where I went without reading the article. I also don’t get the claim that they couldn’t be more different.

🚩 I am serving on this year's APSA Migration & Citizenship section Career Achievement award selection committee & encourage you to nominate a scholar of migration/citizenship whose career you believe has made outstanding contributions to this field. Deadline extended by a few days. 🚩

A children's hospital is renamed for Dolly Parton and hopes to transform pediatric care in Tennessee Dolly Parton’s name might inspire full-throated sing-a-longs to her working woman’s anthem “9 to 5,” or evoke memories of thrilling days spent at her Dollywood theme park.

“Dolly Parton Children’s Hospital did not share how much Parton donated as part of the naming announcement. But Matt Schaefer, its president and CEO, said her support would ensure ‘every child who walks through our doors receives the treatment they deserve.’”

GOD BLESS DOLLY PARTON

It’s insane this is legal. People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.

Netflix Backs Out of Bid for Warner Bros., Paving Way for an Ellison Takeover

The richest man owns X.

The second and third richest men control Google.

The fourth richest man owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

The fifth richest man owns The Washington Post.

And now the sixth richest could soon take over both Paramount and Warner Bros.

See the problem here?

The Washington Post's description of the bodycam video of his arrest last year, and the translation of Mr. Shah Alam's comments, is gutting. Remember, he was entirely blind in one eye and could only see three feet in the other, and he spoke virtually no English.

He spent a year in jail for this.

Absolutely.

Classic abuser rhetoric.

You are generous in assuming they are genuinely looking for fraud.

This is how white nationalism undermines very basic thinking.

I interned in a state Medicaid/Medicare audit unit. The idea that states do not do this already is absurd and is only justified if you are incensed that non-white people receive equal benefits that they are entitled to under the law.

Look at the look on the faces of Vance and Johnson. Not just willing, but enthusiastic accomplices and enablers. History will not be kind.

The test of open dialogue In the face of Jay Bhattacharya as the new CDC Director

Jay Bhattacharya used to argue for transparency and debate in public health. He now leads the NIH and the CDC. Is he living up to his own standards?

🚨 Please share widely! 🚨

I'm hiring a postdoc (from Aug 1) to help build a new research program on politically sustainable immigration policies at Notre Dame.

Looking for a social scientist with strong quant skills, familiarity with new computational tools, and interest in public-facing research.

The President boasts of "no tax on tips", but this expires in 2028.
He boasts of "no tax on overtime," but it is taxed, and the break expires in 2028.
He boasts of "no tax on social security," but it is taxed, and his break expires in 2028.

He also passed tax cuts for the rich. They're permanent.

I really should have watched Heated Rivalry instead.

He sounds bored of his own speech.

Eye-popping margins in the Pennsylvania special elections today:

—Democrats won HD94 by 63 points.
(Harris won it by 30 in 2024.)

—Democrats won HD42 by 35 points.
(Harris won it by 17 in 2024.)

[The 2024 numbers are via the essential @the-downballot.com].

How embarrassing.

In fact Democrats look to be on track for one of their biggest over performances of the last year in the seat anchored in Allegheny County, as the count there nears its end.

Letz go even bigger and better,,, ALL Female US Olympians and Paralympian medalists are invited out to celebrate in Viva Las Vegas for the SHE GOT GAME Weekend ,,,

Hit a guy up and LETZ GOOO

A headline for our time.

Congratulations! JHU is so lucky to have you!

I don't care if Stephen Miller wants ICE to be able to beat up, shoot, or detain citizens.

In America, we believe in due process. We believe in our Constitution. We believe in law and order—safe streets, law enforcement we can trust.

If you don’t like that? Go to Russia.

An important reality check.

Frankly it’s why I renewed my passport just before he took office.