Tim O’Brien

Finland Is Ready for Russia. Is Anyone Else? The Arctic nation offers Europe a master class in combat readiness

Finland is NATO’s Arctic bulwark - and offers a masterclass in self-defense for European allies caught between a revanchist Russia and ambivalent America
My latest Arctic collaboration with @louiepalu.bsky.social
@opinion.bloomberg.com

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Trump Has Never Been a Planner, and in War That’s Deadly “The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.” — All the President’s MenSenator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, a Democrat and member of the Foreign Relations Committee, took...

Trump rushed into a deadly war with Iran without a complete game plan. Not a surprise — he’s done it this way his entire life — but still another reminder that his White House is home to a wrecking crew:
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public.

I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are.

1/ Here's what I can share:

Iran’s Cheap, Plentiful Weaponry Puts US Military Under Unprecedented Strain As the conflict extends towards a third week, an arsenal of attack drones and ballistic missiles has helped make Tehran unlike any adversary the US has faced.

“Two weeks into the conflict, the US war effort is showing unexpected signs of strain against an adversary whose military budget is smaller than the GDP of Vermont — but which has an arsenal of missiles and drones unlike anything the US has ever faced.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Millions more people are in the path of rising seas than previously thought Oceans are rising as the climate changes, threatening coastal cities. A new study shows that much more of the world's population is vulnerable than earlier predictions had estimated.

Oceans are rising as the climate changes, threatening coastal cities. A new study shows that much more of the world's population is vulnerable than earlier predictions had estimated. n.pr/40EoN1z

Corpus Christi careens toward water catastrophe City officials expect to reach a “water emergency” within months and run out of water next year. That would halt jet fuel deliveries to Texas airports, hike gas prices and trigger a local economic dis...

City officials in Corpus Christi, Texas, expect to reach a “water emergency” within months and run out of water next year. That would halt jet fuel deliveries to airports, hike gas prices “and trigger a local economic disaster without precedent.”
www.texastribune.org/2026/03/08/t...

ABC NEWS: “.. Retired Adm. Mike Mullen, former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Sunday that he worries the current war with Iran could drag on for years.”

abcnews.com/Politics/adm...

Historian here no literary scholar but here we are

holy shit

Vance, 9/28/24:

Iran Hits Key US Radar, Deepening Gulf Missile Defense Woes Iran has destroyed a key $300 million radar system crucial to directing US missile defense batteries in the Gulf that risks further straining the region’s ability to counter future attacks, according ...

Iran destroyed a key $300 million radar system crucial to directing US missile defense batteries in the Gulf that risks further straining the region’s ability to counter future attacks.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The U.S. economy has lost jobs since "Liberation Day."

Corey Lewandowski looks to have been comfortably in the middle of the money flowing through Noem’s controversial $240 million ad campaign. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Noem will now be “Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas” because we’re in the Marvel Universe.

Inside the White House pressure campaign to fire Kristi Noem Conversations over Noem’s future have included people at the highest levels of the Trump administration.

Trump pushes Noem out of DHS — after a streak of disasters and the predations, and deaths, in Minneapolis.
www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

House committee votes to subpoena Attorney General Bondi to answer questions over the Epstein files The House Oversight Committee has voted to subpoena Attorney General Pam Bondi to answer questions over the Justice Department’s handling of files related to the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking invest...

The House Oversight Committee will subpoena Pam Bondi to answer questions about how the Justice Department handled the Epstein files.
apnews.com/article/bond...

U.S. Opens Military Action in Ecuador Against ‘Terrorist Organizations’

Sure. Why not launch another war? After all, once you get started…
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/u...

I don't think it's a coincidence Talarico and Mamdani cobbled together basically the same demographic coalition in two very disparate areas of the country, and both present coherent worldviews not defined solely by Orange Man Bad

Looks like Sam Altman regrets making ChatGPT available to the Pentagon.

And he should, @davelee.me says 🎥

X Will Stop Paying People for Sharing Unlabeled AI-Generated War Footage Fake war footage is a problem as old as social media. AI has just supercharged it.

AI-generated war footage is becoming a problem, X is taking a stand against it by *checks notes* demonetizing bluechecks for 90 days when they share it without a label?

Tillis: You decided to kill that dog because you had not invested the appropriate time in training it, and then you have the audacity to say it’s a leadership lesson. You killed a goat and said it was behaving badly. You’re a farmer — you don’t castrate a goat, they behave badly.

Polymarket and Kalshi’s Iran War Wagers Are Ghoulish — and Troubling As bad behavior in finance goes, the idea of insiders betting on the US and Israel attacking Iran is about as appalling as it gets. Cashing in on death and destruction across the Middle East — or anyw...

Polymarket and Kalshi gamifying war and death seems pretty sociopathic to me and the idea of insiders betting on Iran strikes is appalling. But there’s real security risk is sending these price signals too. Seriously, just stop.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

This is quite the comparison.

Bessent Says Trump’s Tariff Hike to 15% Likely Coming This Week Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that President Donald Trump’s plan to increase a 10% universal tariff up to 15% will likely be done this week.

Words cannot express the insanity of slapping across-the-board inflationary tariffs in the middle of waging an inflationary war. It’s like they’re trying to crash the market or someth— ah, I see now

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The Iran War’s Most Precious Commodity Isn’t Oil The CIA calls it the “strategic commodity” of the Middle East. But it’s not referring to oil or natural gas. What the American spy agency has in mind is far more prosaic: drinking water. Don’t underes...

“But the risk is real — whether by targeting desalination plants deliberately, or by accident due to a stray missile or drone. Oil is essential; but water is irreplaceable.”

Water, not oil, is Iran’s most precious commodity.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The US Has Enough Missiles for This War But Not the Next One The decline of missile stockpiles, which spurred the Department of Defense’s arm-twisting in January for Lockheed Martin Corp. and RTX Corp. to boost production, is worsening by the day.

Trump is burning through missile stockpiles as if the inventories were endless. And they aren’t. And China and Russia are watching.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Trump is running out of time to sell his rationale for Iran war Senior officials keep offering justifications for the conflict with Tehran that the president upends.

“I don’t put a timeline, I put a bodycount,” said a former Trump official, who like others in this report, was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “That’s a narrative in the media that erodes how people feel about this war.” www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

OpenAI Steps Over a Red Line Anthropic Refused to Cross After announcing a sudden and surprising deal with the Pentagon, OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman moved quickly this weekend to show he had won meaningful concessions from military leaders.

For a while, Anthropic was the Lyft to OpenAI's Uber -- a company with a better reputation but ultimately doing the same thing.

Now the line dividing the two leading AI firms glows bright red.

My @opinion.bloomberg.com column this morning (🎁) : www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

🎶 We didn’t start the fire…

Exclusive | Trump Administration to Drop Defense of Law Firm Sanctions The Justice Dept. plans to abandon its defense of the president’s executive orders that targeted Jenner & Block, WilmerHale, Perkins Coie, and Susman Godfrey.

Those big law firms never needed to cave but they caved. www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...