Josh Bivens

Big news in today's #jobs report are the revisions. The labor market is much weaker than originally reported the last two months. While payrolls grew 73k in July, May and June data were revised down a total of 258k to 19k and 14k, respectively, bringing 3-month average growth down to 35k.
#EconSky

To me, today's jobs report is what entering a recession looks like. Could we pull up? Sure. But if we look back and end up dating an official recession that starts 3-6 months from now, this is what it would look like today - rapid softening/deterioration in the labor market.

I'm sure somebody has pointed this out already, but, the Trump administration's excitement about 1.7% ytd growth in real average hourly earnings for prod/non-supervisory workers is...weird? Kind of 'meh' relative to what they inherited? For context, last bar on right is what they're so excited about

Finally, I'd just note that part of this disconnect is that many of us don't realize just how much incredibly vital stuff the federal govt does every day. Even small cuts (and the OBBB cuts are not small) to these have dire consequences for human welfare. 11

The parade is big and in-your-face and infuriating, while the OBBB is a boring piece of reconciliation legislation slowly worming its way through Congress. But the OBBB is much more important – folks should focus more attention and advocacy on stopping it. 10

Note that ALL of these things absolutely are happening in the OBB - it's not the "this or that" implied in comparisons of the parade's cost to other social priorities. 9

The OBBB also cuts key investments that would help spur the needed transition to a cleaner energy economy. These cuts could be as high as $460 billion, or almost 3 parades every single day for the next decade. 8

The OBBB is also cutting assistance to purchase health insurance on the ACA exchanges by $30 billion per year. That’s just about 2 parades every single day for the next decade. 7

SPLC noted that the parade cost could provide nutritional assistance to 14 million students. That would be a better use for that money! But the OBBB is cutting food stamps by more than $20 billion per year. That’s a parade every single day for the next decade. 6

5 things $45 million could pay for instead of military parade The expected price of the June 14, 2025, Army display through Washington, D.C., could instead provide for critical services and programs.

The SPLC noted that $45 million could cover 6,000 people with Medicaid for a year. It would be a better use for that money! But the OBBB is cutting Medicaid by $70 billion + per year every year. That’s more than 4 parades every single day for the next decade. 5 www.splcenter.org/resources/ho...

But since people have gotten intrigued by the waste of money in the parade, here’s a comparison between that cost and what it means for other social priorities, and what the OBBB does for those. Sorry if folks have done this already and I missed it. 4

House budget bill would kick 15 million people off health insurance and damage local economies Update: On June 4, 2025, the Congressional Budget Office released a new estimate that as many as 16 million people would lose their health insurance under the House's budget bill. House Republicans wa...

I get that we’re all overwhelmed with how much bad and stupid stuff is happening. But the scale of bad and stupid of the OBBB is, I’m afraid, being neglected. It is a catastrophic bill for tens of millions of people and makes us a much worse country. 3 www.epi.org/blog/house-b...

Opinion | Seven Hidden Ways Trump’s Megabill Would Remake America

$45 million for something stupid is obviously too much. But, again, I’m surprised at how much angst there is about this price tag and what it means for other should-be priorities of the US as compared to discussions about the OBBB winding its way through Congress. 2 www.nytimes.com/2025/06/09/o...

By the numbers: A look at the Army's 250th anniversary parade on Trump's birthday In a few days, the nation's capital will host its largest military parade in more than three decades. We look at some numbers behind the celebration and the key historical moments leading up to it.

Like many, I’m not looking forward to the Trump parade this Saturday. It is dumb on so many levels. I’ve been a bit surprised, though, at how many people seem very upset about its cost – which estimates seem to put as high as $45 million. 1 www.npr.org/2025/06/12/g...

The stock market is not the economy, but this time they really are sinking together Many of Donald Trump’s economic plans put forward during the presidential campaign seemed extremely unwise even to the corporate leaders who supported him and care about profits over everything else. ...

Stock prices can be a noisy signal - some declines aren't bad and some increases reflect policy choices that hurt normal people. But past few weeks' declines are unambiguously bad - they are correct predictions that the US economy will be poorer because of Trump policies. www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...

Just noting that Congress can stop the market carnage anytime they want to by rolling back these tariffs. 100% in their power. They're watching a house ablaze with a firehose sitting at their feet and just refusing to use it. GOP leadership, not the Fed, should be having emergency meetings today.

There will be pain: Continuing low tax rates for the rich and corporations will hurt working families Extending Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will have painful trade-offs for the U.S. economy and most Americans.

And what the GOP budget ideas mean for all of these flows will inevitably cause pain. There's no legislative dishonesty that can avoid this. 3 www.epi.org/publication/...

New Budget Resolution Is Upside Down, Hurting Families the President Pledged to Serve to Shower Tax Cuts on the Wealthy and Powerful | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Congress is speeding down a path to a deeply harmful budget and tax “reconciliation” bill that showers tax cuts on millionaires, billionaires, and corporations — and pays for it in part by raising hea...

It calls for huge tax cuts, mostly for the richest households, but pretends these can be hidden with budget gimmicks. But markets don't care about whether or not something is called "current policy" or "current law", they care about taxes, spending, deficits, and debt. 2 www.cbpp.org/press/statem...

The recent market implosion is mostly about the crazy approach to tariffs the admin is taking, but this crazy approach also likely opened eyes to just how much pain is implied in all sorts of other Trump/GOP policies. For example, the Senate budget resolution is incredibly irresponsible. 1

Liz Truss is very excited to hand off the "Dumbest Macro Policymaker in the World" sash to Donald Trump.

The Trump economic agenda is intense short-run pain to bring us to a long-run equilibrium where we're noticeably poorer than we'd otherwise be. All forms of income - including profits - will grow more slowly going forward and the market's not wrong here. 2

The stock market is not the economy, but this time they really are sinking together Many of Donald Trump’s economic plans put forward during the presidential campaign seemed extremely unwise even to the corporate leaders who supported him and care about profits over everything else. ...

This take is wearing ok. The stock market is a noisy signal and doesn't generally correlate tightly at all with broad-based economic security...but in recent weeks its moves are highly informative. 1 www.epi.org/blog/the-sto...

Based on the replies l, it looks like there a lot of fed workers on @bsky.app

I just wanted to say THANK YOU. I can't imagine the shit you are going through right now

Thanks for your service to our country

Latest #NumbersDay data out from the Department of Labor (www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) show those initial federal UI claims from the last few weeks have translated into insured continuing claims, up by nearly 50% from this time last year.
#EconSky

Tax revenue could drop by 10 percent amid turmoil at IRS Staff cuts and disruptions related to the U.S. DOGE Service have officials bracing for a sharp loss of revenue.

Does "running the govt more like a business" at least mean that the dummies who cost it $500 billion (with a 'b') get fired? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

This continues to be the biggest story in the country: DOGE has already squandered half a trillion dollars in 6 weeks. Not billion. half a trillion, $500 billion talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/irs-p...

If even a brand-new research assistant at EPI came to me with this number and claimed it was a solid data-point they'd be in some real trouble. But none ever would because we attract people who actually care about data and getting things right. 3

The bit about all the 150 year-olds allegedly collecting Social Security benefits - which made it into a speech before Congress - is really telling. This is the kind of mistake people make when they don't have the slightest interest in data. 2

How Quickly Would Elon Musk Have Been Fired If He Worked in the Private Sector? In slightly over two months, Elon Musk and DOGE have committed more major blunders than a million bureaucrats would do in a lifetime.

This is really good and 100% right. 1 cepr.net/publications...

Topics - EPI Data Library The EPI Data Library offers comprehensive, up-to-date labor data from Economic Policy Institute analysis, covering wages, inequality, and economic trends across demographics.

And the new EPI data tool is here: data.epi.org